371 replies to this topic

[odyd]

Japanese outcome is very bullish for CSIQ, and if GS put out the note on changes, they are great. It does not seem at this point that FiT will be changed until end of March. With this 10% reduction in cash flows, it is still great number. In my opinion CSIQ should also put out an update what that means to them. An update to an update they made last would be a great conclusion to Japanese jitters.

[explo]

Japan: 17.5 GW of projects set to be left stranded

Read more: http://www.pv-magazi.../#ixzz3MdFLoF00

[odyd]

Japan: 17.5 GW of projects set to be left stranded

Read more: http://www.pv-magazi.../#ixzz3MdFLoF00

The remaining number is even higher than I expected 51GW are to remain out of 69GW approved. so if we assume 18GW are connected this leaves 33GW left.

I am not sure how much thinking this would require, but evaluation what has not been started, have no land approval, has no equipment etc and money, would be first on the list of eliminations. 

[odyd]

I think the issue here now is the move from the 30 days, which has apparently been the case all along to unlimited curtailment. The idea is not considered retroactive. Of course, this is a difference, which is a lot more significant. This would apply to "over the grid" capacity. I doubt anyone would be interested as there is no money in this, so that maybe appealing to retail connections, where they support own usage and send energy to grid when available.

 

In my opinion METI and utilities need to put their foot down on approvals already given (including grid)  or the ones with three "yeses" and find out where the development is and if in fact if they ever be built. This single step would probably very quickly revealed that the entire grid situation is hogwash. It is paper mountain of approvals, without physical existence, in my view.

[kknd1234]

The news add more uncertainty to the solar industry in short term. As I mentioned couple of time in the past PM Abe will most likely end the generious FIT from the previous gov't and push for more nuclear energy. So i guess policy uncertainty is what really killed the solar stocks.

[odyd]

He is a PM since 2012, he has desire to restart the reactors since he was elected in 2012. Why are you trying to make this as he has been voted in recently? This is mid-term. His policy still needs public approval and thus far is the outcry against it.

[Pop2mollys]

The news add more uncertainty to the solar industry in short term. As I mentioned couple of time in the past PM Abe will most likely end the generious FIT from the previous gov't and push for more nuclear energy. So i guess policy uncertainty is what really killed the solar stocks.

That's not what Goldman Sachs thinks...

And it's healthy to reduce FIT over time. It's the highest in world, what did you expect it would never get reduced over time?

[odyd]

Besides utilities are planning part of the grid to be available for nuclear (yes this is the reason why gird is not available). This was continuous accusation from Greenpeace and remains valid. Lack of grid is there because of the "reserved" portion for nuclear.

The recent announcements are considering it.

[odyd]

Besides utilities are planning part of the grid to be available for nuclear (yes this is the reason why gird is not available). This was continuous accusation from Greenpeace and remains valid. Lack of grid is there because of the "reserved" portion for nuclear.

The recent announcements are considering it.

Kknd as I stated before Japanese Renewable Energy Foundation issued a statement on the study issued by METI, including calculation of the base-load

http://jref.or.jp/ac...ts_20141219.php

 

In the "Basic Energy Plan" is established the basic policy of "to reduce as much as possible the primary dependence", but this time of calculation, all the nuclear power plant and nuclear power plant, including the soon operation period reaches 40 years it is calculated by standing on the assumption that running. As a result, with respect to the demand at power minimum load, in such Hokkaido Electric Power and Kyushu Electric and result in nuclear power plants accounts for 50% ~ 60% of the feed, the amount, and to reduce the connectable amount of natural energy

Above states that the access to the capacity was calculated if all nuclear plants were reconnected. What is amazing this still offers so much potential for volumizing for solar, but shows how powerful utilities are in Japan.

[Pop2mollys]

"China Solar: Polysilicon Prices To Sharply Correct Lower, Says Axiom"

Gordo being Gordo.

http://m.barrons.com...BL-AFUNDSB-1224

[Pop2mollys]

"China Solar: Polysilicon Prices To Sharply Correct Lower, Says Axiom"

Gordo being Gordo.

http://m.barrons.com...BL-AFUNDSB-1224

Oh and there's more...

http://m.benzinga.co...www.google.com/

[Pop2mollys]

Very interesting how 2 different research firms have 2 different viewpoints on Japan. To GS it's not as bad as expected and they expect 8-9GW in 2015 and to Gordo he is predicting Japan to sink into the ocean.

[Pop2mollys]

My understanding was this area had 6 hours per day, so 60 days could be.

"According to Johnson, utilities are now allowed to curtail 360 hours of sunlight each year, this equates to 97.333 days/year of curtailment annually, vs. just 30 days/year prior.”

So he is assuming less than 4 hrs/day of sunlight. I agree with you odyd, anyone have hard data on this it is Gotdo pulling numbers out of the air?

[odyd]

GS shows average of 6 hours per day generation. Assuming that 365*6*40yen=is about 87,600 yen. remove 60 days and you have 73,200. now this compared to a full year 73,200/365*6=33 yen or about 20% reduction in FiT if happens. 33 yen is still 27 cents per kWh.

Another capricious Johnson publication.

[BIPV Investor]

That isn't how it works. If you can kill the peak hours of sunlight, the electricity from a solar plant plummets. I was worried about how the hours were going to be alotted as if Gordo is right in they can kill the peak 360 hours, solar is dead in Japan. If what he says is true, I expect CSIQ to trade sub 16 in the near future as the value of their Japan projects just collapsed.

[odyd]

According to GS Jinko Solar is the most vulnerable to the outcome of new policy in Japan with 5.8% negative margin sensitivity. I guess they sell to developers, which cannot count on new projects any more. This explains how Jinko has been lingering since the lift on the results and now down. GS suggests weakness in those, which are only third party sales.  Trina is also sensitive.

[BIPV Investor]

That is just comical of GS. At the start of the year it was the imminently poly price surge that was Jinkos problem. Now it is Japan that is going to do them in. Based on export data Jinko is not even close to the most exposed to Japan.

GS and Axiom are intentionally driving the sector down and it does not look like they are going to relent.

[odyd]

In regard to Japan, we had discussion on volume, and based on the data released there is at least 41GW available for grid connection as per GS. GS also estimated 6 hours of generation per day and concluded we have 60 days. I was not aware that 30 days was already built in, so the change to 360 hours according to GS is 60 days or double.

I used this table

http://www.currentre...l-average.php#g

and concluded based on the data average sunlight hours per day yearly around 5.12 so this is 70 days. Out of 60 locations only one had 3.8 hours average. This has nothing to do with isolation or peak sun hours or kwh/m2/day.

I am not sure how utilities will execute those curtailments, but the execution itself will have opportune outcome to the plant. Once disconnected the output can change. Economies of the projects will change. and can be managed in calculations I have given. Even at 97 days the FiT becomes 30 yen not 40, most importantly  those changes are not retroactive.

I view all of as positive, and having good cash flow.

[odyd]

For Japan's those views have different impact on 360 hours concept. I am not surprised that Gordo wanted to suppress the numbers to look bad. The way his note is written he talks about sunlight, but uses probably isolation figures, which is certainly off to a degree. I haven't seen anything out there with a clear reference to fully understand impact of the 360 hours. The 30 days have been there from the beginning as a rule. Also, any changes do not apply to grid approved projects, exception the equipment rule.

GS talks about volume in large identifying 41GW, that number has been shown by PV-Mag as 51GW but does not make any deductions.

Also in some cases 60% occupied grid is due to nuclear reserve, so the grid capacity has been limited by non-existing currently, connection.

You would think that Japanese would be very organized and precise, based on their efficiency factors and pragmatism, but the way those rules are being written, the state of the current connection, actual capacity in use, having so many variables, it is quite odd picture.

I am thinking the reason for it is that interpretation is worse than reality. 

Thus far everything Gordo has thrown out, has been semi false due miscalculation. Of course, he does not throw those numbers to amuse, he does for a reason.

How are we going to have $15 poly. Did we ever have poly that low?

[Pop2mollys]

In regard to Japan, we had discussion on volume, and based on the data released there is at least 41GW available for grid connection as per GS. GS also estimated 6 hours of generation per day and concluded we have 60 days. I was not aware that 30 days was already built in, so the change to 360 hours according to GS is 60 days or double.
I used this table
http://www.currentre...l-average.php#g
and concluded based on the data average sunlight hours per day yearly around 5.12 so this is 70 days. Out of 60 locations only one had 3.8 hours average. This has nothing to do with isolation or peak sun hours or kwh/m2/day.
I am not sure how utilities will execute those curtailments, but the execution itself will have opportune outcome to the plant. Once disconnected the output can change. Economies of the projects will change. and can be managed in calculations I have given. Even at 97 days the FiT becomes 30 yen not 40, most importantly those changes are not retroactive.
I view all of as positive, and having good cash flow.

So in regards to CSIQ how much of their 540MW late stage pipeline secures old FIT? Is it based upon grid connection approval, so 150 MW? Or is it everything late stage?