59 replies to this topic

[odyd]

You know the drill.

thanks

[explo]

.85

[spiritcraft]

.79

[kknd1234]

.63

[greensolar]

.53

Sent from my 106_v89_gq3009_hd using Tapatalk

[eysteinh]

My heart says 0.89 (0.63 from operations and 0.25 from fair value of bond effect) and my mind says what is on the other thread but this will be my estimate for trying to win as I do not want to win if my mind is correct as it will be another tough quarter before we really take off then.) 

[hellosolar]

.79

[Pop2mollys]

.99

[Jetmoney]

$0.68

[JMK]

1.07

[Koolinv]

0.48

[odyd]

Do you guys believe that this and other threads dedicated to estimates of EPS show how desynchronized is perception of "knowing" in solar? Look back at every estimate. We are supposed to be aware. Knowing facts and understanding them is still big variable.

[eysteinh]

I do not see how we have been far off? both recent estimates most where pretty close and it has been stuff like tax or opex reduction that adjusted estimates. Last example was Trina solar. Most of us where in range and we where as a group way better than estimate on marketwatch etc.  Frankly as I said I estimated JKS with my heart and I prefer to be way more conservative in what I invest based on my money on (I assume we could see as low as 0.4$/share - but then again I can see we could easily get 0.6+ per share if ASP held up - and with every info that is ticking in I am starting to feel more and more like this could be the case so  I decided to go with my heart and predicted 0.89 for this competition. Personally I am still holding JKS if we see 0.4 but that is another story )

[odyd]

Eystein, but you are not the only person on this forum.  I made my point; those estimates are all over the map. We spent so much talking about it and if you look at the variable, there is no consistency. How is $1 close to $0.48. How was ashen's 0.03 close to .37 from Tiger.
This is evidence that people do not know, and people is market, and computers, which know even less in area of predicting the future, they are programed to react on movement of price.

[eysteinh]

ahh you mean the variance inside our group is high. This is true. Good point. I actually see this as a healthy thing - we have lots of strong minded people who are not afraid to go against each other predictions.  But the mean of our estimates are pretty damn good id say compared with mean of marketwatch. I was pretty far off at 0.29 and even that was edited up from 0.19 two days before the result as I was observing more and more news on good asp in US, I highballed opex on TSL - but there was a lot of other group members who where pretty close. Kinda nice to see given the market overall had no clue whatsoever it at-least seemed from market reaction. Maybe CEDR helped?  I might also influence this result as if I where to give an estimate I would bet my money on it would be 0.4. But since I can do this for fun I go for my high end scenario and shoot at 0.89. 

[luckygoose]

0.76

[Makan]

0.64, still I think Q2 outlook is more important.

[JulyWebb]

0.86

[polarsparkie]

How was ashen's 0.03 close to .37 from Tiger.
This is evidence that people do not know, and people is market, and computers, which know even less in area of predicting the future, they are programed to react on movement of price.

 

Exactly!

 

Fundamentals will win out in the end, but nothing goes up or down in a straight line. Technicals take advantage of this. Embrace it don't fight it.

 

I would love to be able to give a worked out eps but to tell you the truth I wouldn't know how to, thats why I come here, to learn the other side of the trading coin. 

 

For a bit of fun tho, i'l go with a $

[odyd]

Actually that is pretty bad. I work in planning and if the forecasts I made be that much off I would not have a job. This is bad for people who invest serious amounts of money, unless that is internet fiction story, and should not be a surprise why the lose it to be honest. I am not trying to be bigheaded, but there is very simple straight link to failure of the investment, if you do not know what is happening with it.

Running on fumes in 2013 was easy, this is probably why people here got first haughty and then surprised when the criteria shifted and carpet got pulled. I have given enough evidence about my actions where my strengths come from. Still things are open for interpretation even with hard data. Things are open to fantasy land as some of those estimates have been if you have no data at all.

I have some private requests and some on the premium forum. I am going to start selling $270 quarterly membership to three CEDR reports, equaling to a quarter. Need 40 people to get there.
No polls, no questions. We get 50 people I will drop the premium. First 50 will get a coupon for $54 against the Q3 membership. This is 27% off the retail price and second one is 41%.
Look for announcement in admin.