47 replies to this topic

[joshchang]

I deleted previous guess,

 

im thinking .36 while meeting top end of their revised guidance at about 565 MW shipped,  Maintain year end view for both shipments/projects.   Q2 guide about 17-19% GM. 

 

They state they should have 400-500 MW projects completed by year end, i wonder how much of this is going to be sold and recognized this year.  I don't see them holding onto the projects honestly as they are putting alot of cash into upgrades and expansion.   More importantly for them it to recognize profits now and pay for these upgrades while not stressing balance sheet. Looks like they are working towards being the leader when it comes to DG with the new advancements to technology.  I think it may be a bit early for the build and hold stages of industry during massive growth phase as it is very capital intensive. They can always build and hold later. 

Their capex will be about $230m this year which looks a lot but should be easily covered considering:

 

1. $480m unrestricted cash. and

2. Net income (my estimate more than $100m full year)+depreciation($120m+)=$220m

 

I don't think they can sell all 400 to 500mw they build this year and recognize all revenue in 2014. They could go for a hybrid model if they can get good financing.

[odyd]

I would say they have at least $200M opportunity from the receivables to turn into cash to support their project pipeline. This $230M high investment in capacity, is very high compared to other companies, Huge portion of it is new cell lines and upgrades. If they bump their efficiency as a result they could get a lot better processing costs and therefore higher margin. I am looking at around $120M for them, which could support 10PE and about $16

[odyd]

My math is made only on 3.3GW in sales averaging somewhere around $0.67 per watt. The other 500MW is just something being held on their balance sheet possibly. I am curious how much money is going to be generated by the 150MW potential globally. I see those projects to be sold off a lot easier than ones in China. Bottom line this could add some $20M (FiT and sales of plants like 40MW no built in the EU) to the top of that $120M estimate, at $140M net revenue, TSL looks a lot better to hit vicinity of $20.

[explo]

Josh, I agree. For TSL and JA I model them selling for revenue recognition this year around half of the plants they target to connect this year. By the way the 230m capex mentioned on last CC was later tuned to 213m in their 20-F filing. Not that it makes much difference..

[explo]

Odyd, they might get $15m profit just for the China plant they sold in Q1, so I think plant sales will contribute more than $20m profit this year, but that requires execution.

[JulyWebb]

How many of the 400 to 500 MW of Solar plants TSL has planned for this year actually have permits in place?

I'm sure this question would be asked in the CC. 

[odyd]

Odyd, they might get $15m profit just for the China plant they sold in Q1, so I think plant sales will contribute more than $20m profit this year, but that requires execution.

 

I am being very conservative here. I am only looking for most of those to come on at end of the Q3 and Q4. They have said they are very aggressively going down the downstream path, so I imagine they will hold to plants in China and create cash flow from global plant sales if they can.

[solarpete]

0.31

[griffzinho]

0.21 Diluted EPS.

[CrouchingTiger]

0.37

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[Makan]

0.25

[Sunstorm]

.31

[zendoc1love]

$.33

I am particularly interested in their guidance and what they plan to do specifically with their $200M+ opex for this year.  The possibility of increasing efficiency in their cells definitely excites me.  I would like to know about the rollout for their higher efficiency products.

[hellosolar]

I am interested in that you put a big number on their eps but you didn't own the stock?

[JulyWebb]

I'm wondering with all that expenditure they have planned if they won't have an asset impairment charge in the Quarter. Considering HSOL was flat with Q1 and CSIQ hit higher shipments along with JA. So I wouldn't think TSL's problem of lower shipments was just because of the EU.

 

I'll say 0.18.

[zendoc1love]

I am interested in that you put a big number on their eps but you didn't own the stock?

Sorry...I forgot to update my holdings.

It has been a long time since I have owned TSL, but I like them.

I have had 3.1 kW of Trina panels on my house for 4 years now.

 

If they can rapidly roll out the more efficient cells then this will be a significant advantage with DG.

[hellosolar]

I totally agreed with you that they are aiming the dg market as they are spending $200m to upgrading. This could be a wild horse for this year and next.

[Xeloris]

I agree they are moving towards DG,  They were kinda late to the game when it came to project development, looks like they want to be in the forefront of the massive demand for DG in the coming years.   

[odyd]

they got plans for 15% DG this year. They already moved big in Japan, and first thing they are moving on is mono, something they do not have in house. 

[hellosolar]

Where did you find this info? It is very interesting to know this.

 

 

 

they got plans for 15% DG this year.