78 replies to this topic

[BIPV Investor]

1.3 GW DG in 1.5 months sounds like a serious DG install acceleration from anemic Q1. One benefit of DG should be that install is quick compared to CG, right?

No DG is usually much slower as you have to work with multiple clients. In US CG is only slow due to asinine permitting process. I strongly doubt that 1.3GW DG have been installed in the past 1.5 months. Also, as ASP keep dropping, one wants China to be slow still. If China is picking up and ASP are still dropping .3-.5% a week, I would watch out for an oversupply situation. global demand really needs to be very strong to rationalize the expansion plans many companies have. A 6 month hiccup in demand can have a very large ripple effect in pricing as inventor is accumulated.

If US grinds to halt in Q3 due to tariffs and China doesn't pick up, that will be a dangerous mix.

[explo]

No DG is usually much slower as you have to work with multiple clients. In US CG is only slow due to asinine permitting process. I strongly doubt that 1.3GW DG have been installed in the past 1.5 months. Also, as ASP keep dropping, one wants China to be slow still. If China is picking up and ASP are still dropping .3-.5% a week, I would watch out for an oversupply situation. global demand really needs to be very strong to rationalize the expansion plans many companies have. A 6 month hiccup in demand can have a very large ripple effect in pricing as inventor is accumulated.

If US grinds to halt in Q3 due to tariffs and China doesn't pick up, that will be a dangerous mix.

 

BIPV, I mean the install/construction work once everything is a go. You don't need to prepare ground for building for example advanced multiple axis tracking systems (founded in the ground) when attaching some panels on a roof. Since I don't know what the actual case for ground mount vs rooftop install is I just assumed that ground mounted requires more thorough construction work in often larger scale before connecting the plant.

 

Also I did not mean for an individual installer to install many MW. If many installers install small systems each then rooftop installs could be rolled out quicker than ground mount after the go (which according to CSIQ is in April in China due to the permitting process there)?

[sunnysky]

I think pre-construction work is more complicated for DG at this stage (should improve when the model becomes more mature) but I agree installation should be quicker since much smaller projects are done by many more installers. But I do think the 2G number is doubtful - I actually think this is a huge achievement if true. We'll hear more about this in the coming months.

[sunnysky]

New insurance products for DG plants will be rolled out soon. These products will address banks' concerns over risks (module/inverter quality, electricity output etc). As a result,  the difficulty of DG financing  will be resolved and installations should pick up quickly.                              

 

http://solar.ofweek....0-28828742.html

[sunnysky]

Some more details here:

http://solar.ofweek....0-28828748.html

 

DG installation is seen to increase meaningfully in Q2, pick up quickly in Q3, and grow explosively in Q4.

Completion of 8GW is still difficult but 6GW is a reasonable goal.

[abcdefgjoho]

i start to begin not likeing those shunfeng guys.

http://www.sf-pv.com...140424_2158.pdf

 

890MW already connected to grid they say.

[explo]

Some more details here:
http://solar.ofweek....0-28828748.html
 
DG installation is seen to increase meaningfully in Q2, pick up quickly in Q3, and grow explosively in Q4.
Completion of 8GW is still difficult but 6GW is a reasonable goal.

Thanks sunny. This is good news and explains government target. I never thought government took the target out of thin air, but that a roll out enabling plan supporting it existed.

[explo]

i start to begin not likeing those shunfeng guys.
http://www.sf-pv.com...140424_2158.pdf

890MW already connected to grid they say.

Yes, they take downstream pie without creating any panel demand for CN11, since they bought big failed capacity. This is not good, capacity should consolidate to the hands of able players for sector efficiency. The extreme go big or go home failed and these guys buy those failures and give it another even more extreme try. It's gonna blow, maybe the strong CN guys can pick up the pieces at that point. Big plans, no money, I guess they have financers lined up..?

[abcdefgjoho]

well, seems they issued a CB lately for almost 3.6 billion HK$. that is quite some money I say. but with those guys - i understand the guy who is all behind is is known for buying distressed assets - you never know what their agenda is.

 

hyping it up, press some money, and let it go bust ? really bring it back ? selling it higher to investors ? maybe the CB buyers are already the first loosers he hyped into this. it is very difficult. all we can do is watch them carefully on how they progress - meaning cells, modules actually produced and sold and at what prices. ldk capacity for sure is still not competitive

[Xeloris]

Has Shunfeng took over LDK too?   The same large investor is in both ldk and shunfeng

[abcdefgjoho]

not. but via his holding I think this guys owns 22% or so of ldk.

http://www.bloomberg...r-supplier.html

[abcdefgjoho]

doing some more analysis on this shunfeng story - ignore if known already.

http://www.ifrasia.c...1141793.article

 

it seems the last CB was mainly bought by himself ;-)

"Cheng Kin Ming owns Partners Capital Securities, and also holds a 29.7% stake in Shunfeng through an investment holding company, called Peace Link. However, his stake would increase to 66.2% if all of the CBs issued or those Shunfeng announced since last year were converted into shares. That does not include any CBs that Cheng’s entities may acquire in the current offer."

 

he seems to increase his exposure and latest CB is not really flying...

"A source said four banks had worked on a potential offering, but decided not to proceed, after finding limited interest from investors."

 

so not that negative i think but why does that guy want to sink his money. no clue. maybe a gambler. we will find-out. it is at least positive that not many seem interested - I am always cautious when comps buy other big comps which failed as there was always a reason for failure.

[explo]

well, seems they issued a CB lately for almost 3.6 billion HK$. that is quite some money I say.

 

$HK3.6 billion is quite some money, but the HK$100 billion they plan to spend on the 10 GW of PV plants they'll build the coming 3 years is quite some more money and a CB is a debt until confirmed conversion to equity.

 

JA and Trina have way stronger financials than Shunfeng.

[odyd]

Here we go again, this time GCL will be building plants worth 3GW with Jintech/Guodian Solar

http://www.ne21.com/...show-54849.html

I guess GCL took the money from Minsheng and started buying and commissioning plants. Great.

[odyd]

Joint statement from CCCME , I can recognize Qu

http://www.ne21.com/...show-54850.html

[sunnysky]

Right, here is an earlier English report:

 

China's PV industry opposes US investigation

http://www.china.org...t_32456537.htm?

[sunnysky]

Clouds lift for solar firms after tough time

http://www.chinadail...t_17532288.htm?

 

 

Consolidation will go on, leaving only five to 10 mega-companies on the market with big output, Brannigan said.

 

"It is quite similar to what happened to the semiconductor industry," he said. "It does not mean that all small companies cannot survive. They have to be more flexible and better tap the niche market just like boutique hotels."

 

Consolidation - that's what all of us here want to hear, right?

[sunnysky]

I hope a confirmation of "No tariffs" hits the newswire and add more sparks to solar stocks.

[odyd]

Comtec is moving to Malaysia

http://www.scmp.com/...otential-tarifs