31 replies to this topic

[odyd]

I think July expected profit for HSOL, well it sounds like it is coming to those who are patient

http://www.businessk...e-after-3-years

[JulyWebb]

Last time I think they only had a loss of around 4 cents. With TSL and YGE expected to have higher GM, is the same reason HSOL will. Better though they're shipments will not be lower than previous guidance I expect.

[JMK]

the "market" ignores even a direct hint on HSOL profitability. It looks like a macro situation is much more powerful than achivements of selected industries and stocks i.e always a momo perception enforced by computerized trading dominates totally. I agressively added today HSOL to my trading position. I just refuse to beleive that a profitable fast growing company can be held below $3 for such a long time.       

[Paybak66]

Odyd, fantastic find....what a great first post to read on SPVI today - wow....

 

Now, lets just hope they pop more upon Q1 earnings day than others have recently upon their great results.....JASO, for instance, ending their last earnings day up a whopping 2%.

 

Go, HSOL!

[Lepv123]

Lets hope HSOL can revisit $4 by next earnings result? Is that possible?

[odyd]

I am hoping it can revisit $4 on the day of the conference.  I would probably sell at that point. Before that I hope to climb back over $3.00

[Lepv123]

That sounds like a good and likely plan. So percentage wise, HSOL stands a good chance of getting the most.

[odyd]

Another article this time calling SolarOne to be in black for the first time in a while. This means that HSOL is profitable according to own parent.

http://www.koreatime...123_156204.html

[odyd]

This one, which is translated from Korean, the forecast for SolarOne is profit for Q1.

http://www.seoul.co....log_sub=svt_100

 

Lat time I spotted the same news was about GM and being over 10% GM to qualify for bank's line of credit. The GM was 16.1%

The lasting reaction to HSOL results was a huge disappointment. The company lost a $1.00 till now from cc. I cannot really understand the reasons but the zone for all solar stocks affecting them in a negative fashion. It could be different when reporting in May.  I had high hopes for plus $4, but it did not last, last time. The really good news is that it is exciting to see Korean persistence in managing the company, if they get the profit will they turn heads. Still no coverage, I know of, from investment banks.

http://finance.yahoo...bol=HSOL;range=

[odyd]

I want to make sure that nobody feels this is a buy and hold situation, in my opinion.

My unqualified view (not a broker or certified to give advice) is that perhaps it is, but at this point, I see HSOL again as an opportunity for short term trade, led by some build up prior to the conference and peak during the conference on premise of the profit. There could be a good reason to stay with the stock, but that reason is not clear to me due to-date market perception/behavior or simply lack of coverage. I guess this will have to be evaluated as we are also in the different sentiment period (looking on market behavior data). Of course everyone knows what happened around the last quarter. The behavior could be different, so my strategy may not work either.

 

I suppose some people may conclude if it worth it, to buy after earnings, which could make stock look very favorable among peers based on results. This could be a value trap as JA and HSOL created after Q4 results, so that may not be the best strategy, imho. 

 

So couple of thoughts what I see, and why I bought Hanwha again.

 

According to Benzinga short on TSL and HSOL has increased, but HSOL does not have a lot of shorting.

[podocyte]

Personally feel Its going to be catch up year for HSOl ... Only deterrent is Focus of parent has been more inclined on Q cells 

[odyd]

Yes, I agree HSOL has been a vehicle to supply product to QCELLS, and these guys own the EPC, solar plant objectives globally outside of China. However if China is going to spark up, HSOL could be a very attractive for us. QCELLS is also easier and naturally first to be supported by the parent. It is fully owned by them.

[explo]

Just to be a bit careful it seems like Hanwha says that their solar energy business (QCELLS + HSOL) will show operating profit (not net profit).

[abcdefgjoho]

yea, operating profit could be a net loss as we all know with interest and stuff.

 

the other link above says though:

"The conglomerate said it expects that the quarterly sales of its energy business units ― Hanwha Q Cells and Hanwha SolarOne ― will turn black in the January­March period, the first time since the second quarter in 2011."

 

turn black would mean net profit.

 

i think it could be an interesting trade. if you look at the chart then the $2.50 range is maybe where to enter or slightly above it - like now.

 

for me this comp is today no long-term play at all - but a trade for q1 - i have to think about it.

[JulyWebb]

Hanwha said by the end of this month a new CEO will be announced. That will be interesting to see who that might be. 

[Paybak66]

yea, operating profit could be a net loss as we all know with interest and stuff.

the other link above says though:
"The conglomerate said it expects that the quarterly sales of its energy business units ― Hanwha Q Cells and Hanwha SolarOne ― will turn black in the January­March period, the first time since the second quarter in 2011."

turn black would mean net profit.

i think it could be an interesting trade. if you look at the chart then the $2.50 range is maybe where to enter or slightly above it - like now.

for me this comp is today no long-term play at all - but a trade for q1 - i have to think about it.

Abcd, why do you not see HSOL as a long term trade currently?

[odyd]

Just to be a bit careful it seems like Hanwha says that their solar energy business (QCELLS + HSOL) will show operating profit (not net profit).

During Q4 HSOL had an operating loss of $3.9M,  They should make money in GAAP on conversion. So quite simply operating gain is the profit for those guys. If they dropped those surprisingly high interest payments, they could make money.

Looking at their short interest rate average of 3.49% annum on 182M That is 6.3M a year. Long term rates are even lower, 3.54% annum on 404M, that is $14M.

So interest in the year is $20M, yet 2013 interest expense was $53M, why?

This is the part which confuses me a lot. So if this average of $13.5M becomes $5M, they could be at $8M net income or $0.09 per share, just on the same layout as the last quarter.

[explo]

Good find. There's something weird about the low interest rate and high interest expense.

[odyd]

I am looking at the cash flow and cannot find the $53M entry they paid, but in the supplemental info I see that interest expense is described as $27M.

In addition to 404M long and 182M short, there is $38M of actual current portion of long term borrowing, and long-term notes of $100M are interest bearing ($533K in interest). Also, converts which pay 3.99%.  Yet $27M is the reasonable amount as I have described since IR was probably dropping down. Another words we have a gap of $26M I cannot locate. I did ask about it last week, still awaiting answer. I am good at cash flow forensics but maybe someone can see this, as I cannot. 

[explo]

I think the 15.8m amortization of CB discount might explain part of the discrepancy.