52 replies to this topic

[sunnysky]

I think it's meaningful to start this so I've moved my posts to its own thread to avoid being buried within other type of posts.

 

 

[sunnysky]

TSL's guidance update:

http://finance.yahoo...-200000275.html

 

I ran a quick estimate on TSL Q1 earnings. It looks like it could make 0.25, doubling that of Q4. This is based on the new guidance and assumes almost all items in opex and financing etc being similar to those in Q4. I did scale selling expense and used a 15% tax rate just to add some safety cushion. I hope I made no major mistakes. Let me add that the Wuwei plant sale and higher GM did the wonders.

 

If this is basically true, it would help a great deal if TSL had given some guidance on EPS.  Odyd and others, it'd be nice if you can also do this exercise.

[sunnysky]

I guess this is as close as they are comfortable with about the EPS guidance:

 

 

We believe achieving increased gross margins will further support improved bottom line growth quarter over quarter.

[Xeloris]

Thanks Sunny, looks great although appears after monday i may  not beable to afford even a membership here lol.. 

 

Just an edit for q4 after the recent adjustments.. It basically meets Q4 not doubles as Q4 got adjusted to .23 recently.. wish they tacked that onto q1 instead.

 

If your estimates are right thats .62 cents on last 3 quarters

[sunnysky]

It basically meets Q4 as Q4 got adjusted to .23 recently.. wish they tacked that onto q1 instead.

 

Yes, that did not help the stock much but I guess these guys are just being professional and honest.

[odyd]

What ASP you figured they have $0.66 or $0.68,

[sunnysky]

The ASP is not as important as the GM. For example, you could try 0.67 ASP vs 0.54 cost for a GM of 19.40%. And I used 19% for the plant.

 

In any case, I think you'll see that TSL actually makes more in Q1 due the plant sale and higher margins. With the lower module shipment, the sales expense should have come down as well. So do factor that in.

[odyd]

My ask is the level of the revenue generation. 20% at $0.66 versus $0.68 is a $11M difference if you consider $9M net income, it matters.

[sunnysky]

If EPS is what you are looking for, it does not change that much - I've used a few combinations. In any case, this is just for a quick check of Q1 ER. I think 0.67/0.54 is reasonable. I went over the estimate again and looks to me that around 0.25 should be a good estimate, give or take a few cents in either direction depending on the variables.

[explo]

If EPS is what you are looking for, it does not change that much - I've used a few combinations. In any case, this is just for a quick check of Q1 ER. I think 0.67/0.54 is reasonable. I went over the estimate again and looks to me that around 0.25 should be a good estimate, give or take a few cents in either direction depending on the variables.

 

I've updated my estimate too. EPS effect is down only 5 cents or less after revision compared to original guidance with announced plant sale added.

 

I'm a bit suspicious about the whole EU volume being down reason when at the same time saying ASP and margins are up. To me it looks more like same reason as YGE stated, i.e. that China shipments will be lower than expected. I don't see anything strange with low China shipments. Why install panels in a freezing cold quarter after CG FiT just have been adjusted down and people are celebrating Chinese New Year. Low installs in China in Q1 means very little for total installs in 2014, since it makes no sense to do installs in Q1 in China. I think companies were a bit surprised by just how big the change from Q4 to Q1 could be in China though.

[sunnysky]

I agree.
What is your eps estimate?

[explo]

I agree.
What is your eps estimate?

 

15 cents cleaned of non-recurrents. The plant sale saves the quarter from a minor loss of around 3 cents.

[JulyWebb]

Agree a lot of the slowdown in Q1 for YGE and TSL has to do with the Chinese Holiday where almost 2 weeks of production are shut down and the other has to do with weather in parts of China or too perhaps else where. I looked back to see what happened in 2013 to get a comparison on 2 Solar stocks to see if this is not a usual expected trend or if other circumstances might exist.

TSL in Q1 2013 reported shipments of 393 MW down 5.3% From Q4 and previously guided for 500 to 530 MW.
Q2  2013 increased shipment guidance to 630 to 660 MW. At that time I believe TSL and YGE came out the same day with PR's of upward revised shipment guidance.TSL in the PR said they would reconfirm Full year.shipment guidance of 2.0 to 2.1 GW for the Full Year during the CC for Q2.
 

 Looking at JA Q1 reported shipments of 442.7 MW exceeding the high end of the Company's previous guidance and represented a decrease of 11.5% in Q4.

Q2 shipments were 463.7 MW above the high end of the Company's previous guidance. 

 

JKS and YGE also two others that would be interesting to look at during Q1 and Q2 to look at what happened with actual shipments or revised guidance. 

CSIQ only had 1894 MW shipments in 2013 as compared to 1543 MW of shipments in 2012 and has seen it's price rise during that time by 2000%.On the other hand  YGE having the largest shipments I suppose 3 GW in 2013 and still is not profitable. High shipments can help but it's not making YGE profitable.

Full Year guidance could get revised if part of the shipment guidance has reliance of US shipments and in the back half if SW case isn't resolved favorably for CN Solars whatever that outcome is developing projects will more than make up for. The price of where most

Solar's pricing right now looks irrational and as far as I can see is not in the balance of full term of what may be expected from those that have project developments in the pipeline.

[eysteinh]

JKS increased during Q1 2013.

 

"Total solar product shipments were 338.6 megawatts ("MW"), consisting of 282.4 MW of solar modules, 25.4 MW of silicon wafers and 30.8 MW of solar cells. This represents an increase of 12.2% from 301.9 MW in the fourth quarter of 2012 and an increase of 36.0% from 249.0 MW in the first quarter of 2012."

 

 

With that said JKS already guided lower for Q1 2014 so that is fine we know its coming.
 

For the first quarter of 2014, total solar module shipments are expected to be between 440 MW and 470 MW. For the full year 2014, total solar module shipments are expected to be in the range of 2.3 GW to 2.5 GW, with total project development scale expected to be above 400 MW.  

 

 

 

If anyone seriously thinks China is halting its solar with all the smog going on in china and how serious they are about renewables I think they are wrong. Demand will come in China this year. But yes Q1 seems to be slower, this was seen in the solarzoom asp as well it dropped from an avg of 0.677 to 0.611 currently in a period of the last 4 weeks now. For me I expected a downward price in asp during this low season and this is why I am in JKS as I feel they can handle such asp pressure better than most. I think that is why I am optimistic JKS will stay its course and keep its current guidance but you never know. Interesting times for q1 but even so I am more focused on my year estimate than my quarter to quarter estimates. As long as they deliver on overall business plan I am staying. The moment they do not I am out.If you can make a big profit at 0.61 you can make it anywhere (as seen with JKS distribution deal to india.) If you look at my estimates for 2014 I already have the avg at 0.61 for 2014 and with that I expect less than 0.61 in china overall as rest of world actually pulls up the average. 

 

Back to TSL. I think system sales of 25 MW could drag net profit to 0.25 per share. I assume 570 mw sold 0.65 asp 18% gm. 60% gm for sale of system and 25 mw sold at 1,5$/watt. I assume 5 mil cell/wafer at 1,5 mil gross. Opex+interest+currency effect 70 mil in costs. No tax cost.80 million shares. 

[sunnysky]

Hey guys, some posts don't belong to this thread

 

15 cents cleaned of non-recurrents. The plant sale saves the quarter from a minor loss of around 3 cents.

 

Thanks explo. This looks a bit conservative to me. One thing to note is their selling expense is going to be a lot less than Q4 due to reduced shipment.

[explo]

Hey guys, some posts don't belong to this thread



Thanks explo. This looks a bit conservative to me. One thing to note is their selling expense is going to be a lot less than Q4 due to reduced shipment.

Yes it is a bit conservative. High end shipment, mid GM and not much opex reduction assumed. I think opex could go down, but maybe not so much on lower freight from lower domestic shipments (I've assumed that cost is quite low) as from lower bonuses, warranty and commissions. I chose an estimate that should be easy to beat.

[sunnysky]

Sure, understood. I don't think the street has realized that TSL is going to deliver similar or likely better earnings than Q4 despite lower shipment. On the other hand, no one cares in this market. Sell first and ask questions later.

 

Let me add that's why I said I wish TSL had given a guidance on EPS as well. I'm sure they are capable of giving a range and that is what their investors need right now. as a matter of fact, it should help the whole sector.

[sunnysky]

Just seen this being mentioned - Bank of America Merril Lynch reiterate buy rating and PT of $22.

 

"Trina pre-announced weaker volumes on European tariff renegotiations, but higher 

than expected gross margin on stronger module ASPs and better project margins. 

We have updated our model accordingly, and our estimates actually increase as a 

result of the consistent pricing environment module suppliers appear to have faced 

in Q1’14. We continue to prefer Trina as a module supplier to key markets around 

the world with an early stake in project development in China, and a strong balance 

sheet by the standards of domestic peers. We reiterate our Buy rating and $22 PO"

 

2014 Revenue estimates revised up from $2314M to $2330M

2014 Earning per ADR estimates revised up from $0.50 to $0.71

 

Can someone confirm this also?

[Xeloris]

I confirmed it.  I have the research report i would attach it if i could.. I PM'd it to you sunny

[odyd]

Save it as PDF and attach a file. If you are ok with their copyright I cannot stop you with making attachments. I will not tell, but I would not allow my PDF to be attached in this fashion, as an example.