595 replies to this topic

[JulyWebb]

I think those spot prices are misleading because Tier 1 will always demand a premium. According to data we received spot prices were at 52 week highs. Data coming up in a week will give us more insight. 1 weeks worth of low vine spot prices doesn't define a trend.

 

Okay guys Buy the Data and forget about guessing it also helps this forum tremendously. I agree with what Pops says.

[odyd]

Chinese demand drop has to be viewed through companies' interest of delivering to China or working on EU quota and other markets. Chinese demand drop has to be also seen in relationship to sheer volume of installations showing some 8GW in Q4 alone. What I am reading BIPV is that companies having higher than Q1 2013 shipments in Q1 2014 or having as good of the shipments as Q4 are really not experiencing growth in China and that is WS is reacting to. I suppose moving 300 to 400MW of projects by Jinko would indicate that or 250MW for CSIQ to build for FiT collection also appears to be it or even HSOL announcing 100MW with Wuxi is a situation. You sell more solar product to countries when solar can be installed during this time. This is not new. What is new there is enough demand to break records.
I am not sure that anyone pays attention but Q1 2014 shipments will be the highest on record.
Out 7 companies reporting all but one are expanding their capacity, btw last time you also worried about that and it was a worry for over capacity. Energytrend reports tier 2 module prices. Those who read CEDR you can see that, exports are being dominated by fewer names and the “other” group is becoming marginalized. Those are the companies Energytrend is interviewing.

[BIPV Investor]

Those who read CEDR you can see that, exports are being dominated by fewer names and the “other” group is becoming marginalized.

 

I look forward to buying Feb. data. I did not buy Jan as was occupied with other endeavours, but yea CEDR does provide the best visibility we have on conditions.

Chinese demand drop has to be also seen in relationship to sheer volume of installations showing some 8GW in Q4 alone. What I am reading BIPV is that companies having higher than Q1 2013 shipments in Q1 2014 or having as good of the shipments as Q4 are really not experiencing growth in China and that is WS is reacting to.

 

Yes when it became apparent that Q4 would have that massive of China demand I became concerned as who supplied all of it?Sure wasn't our US listed names. Many baby names woke up and are now looking for food. The question is, how long will it take to starve them again, and will this impact tier 1 prices.

[odyd]

US-listed are exporting now. If you did buy you would see that export in January was massive compared to monthly figures in Q4. Even reading stripped down report signals this. Tier 1 supplied 50% of their volumes to China in Q4, perhaps you could do the math? Part of Q3 went to be installed in Q4 as well. I bet they did at least 3 to 4GW or some 50%
Someone needs to do excel spreadsheet and that math. Now take that math and compare to capacity of US-listed vs. entire capacity in China. They got the most of the business using up all of the capacity and a lot of inventory

[Makan]

I will be very excited for the Feb CEDR. However, we have the GADP always 1 month behind. Is there somewhere available any hard data or at least indication of what is coming in the following month (like March indication in Feb CEDR)? 

[BIPV Investor]

Someone needs to do excel spreadsheet and that math.

 

Sweet! A homework assignment! I'll see if I have time later this afternoon as I would be pleasantly surprised to see where China's 11.3GW of capacity was shipped from in 2013.

[odyd]

I will be very excited for the Feb CEDR. However, we have the GADP always 1 month behind. Is there somewhere available any hard data or at least indication of what is coming in the following month (like March indication in Feb CEDR)?

Data for GADP is the same as the shipment data. Quotes in China are for the same month as publication. I am not sure if this answers your question.

[odyd]

11.3GW of capacity was shipped from in 2013.

11.3GW is something which I do not have support for., I believe the "all" Chinese capacity is in area of 38GW, so unless Taiwan was shipping to them ( I know they did not I seen TWN modules shipments ) I think IHS is full of it. I also saw 3.8B to be spent on equipment in IHS writings. Sounds like about 2B too many.

[BIPV Investor]

Poops ment 11.3GW installed in China, not shipped. Sorry for the confusion.

[SolarRoof]

First Solar Inc (FSLR) New Panel Efficiency Plan A Big Positive by Vikas Shukla March 25, 2014, 10:23 am

The new plan will reduce the installed systems' cost from $1.59 in 2013 to less than $1 in 2017, and below $0.40 by 2018

 

http://www.valuewalk...a-big-positive/

[odyd]

It is always nice to have a plan to catch the competiton. How do you call those who are already making efficiency as your plan?

[SolarRoof]

I guess the question is, where might the T1 Chinese be on efficiency and costs in five, ten years?

[Pop2mollys]

SPWR CEO on CNBC @5... He could Defenitely give a spark to sector...

[odyd]

I guess the question is, where might the T1 Chinese be on efficiency and costs in five, ten years?

I think explo touched on this. Many, who see FSLR sparkle on efficiency, consider Chinese to be sitting on their hands and get surprised. While mass produced modules have added half a percent or up to a percent in last 3 years for FSLR and thin-film, Chinese went from 14.5 to 16.3% modules mass produced and in fact becoming major volume in shipments.
If I was going to benchmark Cad at poly and without FSLR moving into poly, I see Chinese 10 years ahead FSLR from today, meaning keeping the distance.
Those guys will be the solar industry with couple foreign companies left. They will be the innovation, swallowing new solutions and designs and putting them out on field in short order.

[thejaq]

RGSE Q4ER

 

http://rgsenergy.com...3_Q4.pdf?page=1

[Jetmoney]

It is always nice to have a plan to catch the competiton. How do you call those who are already making efficiency as your plan?

Leaders?

[explo]

I think explo touched on this. Many, who see FSLR sparkle on efficiency, consider Chinese to be sitting on their hands and get surprised. While mass produced modules have added half a percent or up to a percent in last 3 years for FSLR and thin-film, Chinese went from 14.5 to 16.3% modules mass produced and in fact becoming major volume in shipments.
If I was going to benchmark Cad at poly and without FSLR moving into poly, I see Chinese 10 years ahead FSLR from today, meaning keeping the distance.
Those guys will be the solar industry with couple foreign companies left. They will be the innovation, swallowing new solutions and designs and putting them out on field in short order.

 

FSLR had a preso a year or more ago showing their strength being a stagnating mc-Si future efficiency curve. To bad for FSLR mc-Si efficiency curve went parabolic instead - both Jinko and JA are already average 18% cell efficiency on their mc-Si production lines. Of course FSLR don't keep old preso's with flawed predictions around, so I can't check it, but from my memory their low cost competing mc-Si would settle at 17% in some distant future, while CdTe would charge on. They were ahead and have been slipping since (contrary to their predictions). They bought c-Si company.

[odyd]

Leaders?

Exactly

[sunnysky]

SunPower cracks China PV market with 120MW of planned CPV projects

http://www.pv-tech.o...gn=newsnow-feed

 

Deals like this should add some incentives to resolve the US tariff case in favorable terms?

[Pop2mollys]

Morgan Stanley Recommits to 'Buy' Call on Chinese Stocks as Slowdown Deepens

http://mobile.bloomb...sky-moment.html