29 replies to this topic

[spiritcraft]

Many of you know my theories about growth, greed and perception turning PV into something we dare not imagine. 

 

I was hoping that others with opinions concerning the future of PV in the USA would chime in.  I believe very strongly that in a relatively short period of time the US will be the largest market for PV demand in the world.  There are states here that have basically nothing in terms of PV installations that could turn into 10GW per year markets.  I see the US as something like what Japan is to 2013-14 but on a much larger scale. 

 

There are political influence that will change to the positive due to greed.  To date, the BOS cost question has held back this market along with the Solarworld tariff decision.  These two questions (problems) will be worked out one way or another but what I see shaping up here is a potential multiple 10's of GW per year market with no one to adequately supply it.

 

One question I have had is at what point does a CN company open up shop here in the US?  TSL talked long and hard about opening a serious manufacturing facility here in the US but was cut off at the knees by the tariff decision.  That was before the Swanson effect went into hyper-drive bringing us to near grid parity levels long before any of us imagined.  Given the current cost of PV manufacturing and the ongoing reduction of BOS costs here, where is the sweet spot where serious manufacturing could be profitable here in the US.  This point is coming but when?

 

Another aspect of this would be perception, perception of being a US PV manufacturer which would not only help to win bids here but also in stock market valuation.  Imagine Trina USA or something doing projects across the USA at some point.  Canadian Solar could likely step into this role as they have done it in Canada.  The US is not a big FIT market of course but the economic and political winds are shifting and the PV market in the US will definitely explode soon enough. 

 

FSLR might be slipping into oblivion just as this the US market comes to fruition. That said, where will the modules come from and who will build the massive projects that will be built here? Is it a CN company at all or will another group take the majority of the future USA market?

 

Over time I guess these questions will be answered and while we are not there yet, these, I believe, will be very relevant point to consider as PV investors.  Perhaps this thread will evolve and morph from what some consider a pipe dream now into an essential discussion in time.  

[odyd]

Spirit, why can you get a copy of the SPVI CEDR, so you can see what is happening for the US market? If you do I think you will want one every month.

[spiritcraft]

I bought and I see what is happening now... thanks.  But still, the long term prospects of the USA will dominate our conversations at some point.

[odyd]

Excellent, please discuss details of the report on premium forum, the long term prospects of the US market are a vital part of Chinese companies' strategy. You will not miss the bit with CEDR. Now with Taiwan controlling part of the trade another set of interesting relationships could be made. Of course I speak form side of the supply, while you focusing as much on demand.

[spiritcraft]

Yes, of course. 

 

I started this thread with the idea of it being a long term discussion about the USA.  My crystal ball screams huge future demand but then I wonder about supply...

[explo]

Spirit, I agree US together with China are the two markets with biggest potential. In US I can see panel manufacturing by CN like STP had until cell tariffs took away the value of that.

[eysteinh]

I remember a long time ago there was a good article..i think it was cleantech or something like that site, it was about how exponential growth in US could actually mean we would soon be looking at 100 GW a year.. yeah... in US. I cant find the link but this one is close enough: http://theenergycoll...l-it-get-hotter

[spiritcraft]

I remember a long time ago there was a good article..i think it was cleantech or something like that site, it was about how exponential growth in US could actually mean we would soon be looking at 100 GW a year.. yeah... in US. I cant find the link but this one is close enough: http://theenergycoll...l-it-get-hotter

. I have that link somewhere. It was a professor somewhere wh was just looking at the Swanson effect. It was before the huge price drop and talked about Bo's costs but his thesis was that the us could be a 100gw market now. I hesitate to say such thinks for fear of being labeled a nut but I actually think that the us could be that big soon. It seems like lunacy but we are closer than we think. @explo. Yes China needs to be huge just to stay alive. You can't hold onto power long if the population can't breathe! Also that Texas story talks about a new manufacturing plant there.

[spiritcraft]

http://solarpvinvest...solar-projects/

 

 

Canadian Solar Inc., (the "Company", or "Canadian Solar") (NASDAQ:CSIQ), one of the world's largest solar power companies, today announced it was selected to supply 84,480 solar modules to National Renewable Energy Corporation (NARENCO) for four utility scale solar projects totalling 25.3 MW in Wayne and Duplin counties of North Carolina.

So where are these CS6X- 300W max power modules coming from and at what cost?

[spiritcraft]

 

Still, the approach in San Antonio is relatively unique. The utility, in calling for 400 megawatts of solar — to start, invited solar manufacturers to locate operations in the region. As such OCI Solar, a subsidiary of Korean-based OCI Enterprises chose to move its U.S. headquarters to San Antonio. It is also establishing manufacturing facilities in the area with its partner solar panel maker Nexelon.

http://www.renewable...m-comes-online?

 

In terms of this Texas deal and the plan for manufacturing there.  Any speculation as to what COG and ASP's might be when up and running?

[odyd]

So where are these CS6X- 300W max power modules coming from and at what cost?

Are you asking is it from Ontario or China? I think from both locations is very possible.

[spiritcraft]

Yes,  that is what I was wondering.  I hardly slept last night and was up searching US news of projects and PV planned developments.  I learned a lot but I was absolutely amazed at the scale of some of the planned projects in states we are not used to seeing mentioned in terms of PV installs.  Someone is really going to have to figure out how to supply the awakening beast.

[eysteinh]

We could see more local US pv factories with local polysilicon and local sales you could cut a lot of opex costs for freight and it could create goodwill for projects (ala CSIQ model.)  For that to happen we need good US wafer producers. I know there is a lot of tech going on behind the scenes so maybe just maybe some companies will pop up with this in the next 1-2 years. I do still however think the majority of production capacity will be located in China.

 

But I think for now it depends what happens 20th january in solarworld saga. But this is just a minor bump in the road and the changes are comming no matter what. 

[spiritcraft]

http://www.solarserv...lar-energy.html

 

Here is some clarity on the OCI deal in Texas

[odyd]

We could see more local US pv factories with local polysilicon and local sales you could cut a lot of opex costs for freight and it could create goodwill for projects (ala CSIQ model.)  For that to happen we need good US wafer producers. I know there is a lot of tech going on behind the scenes so maybe just maybe some companies will pop up with this in the next 1-2 years. I do still however think the majority of production capacity will be located in China.

Local manufacturing is always a result of cost/benefit analysis. CSIQ Ontario factory was a result of policy for local content requirement, and that is unique.  Cell tariff was one of the reasons why many saw local capacity to be erected. It did not materialize. I think China's manufacturing continues with cost advantages, despite shipping costs. I also think as you pointed Eys,  the US has policy risks and SW lurking in the shadows is one of those. SPWR and FSLR manufacture abroad. For BOS to come down the only way is to continue to have cheap modules. Other locations offer a price advantage, and can supply other regions. Shipping product from the US elsewhere is also cost prohibitive.  So it appears as one way destination.

[spiritcraft]

So it appears as one way destination.

  That would be the point though.  Imagine the political goodwill...  you could get a senator to do your bidding.  It would only require some level of assembly with a manufacturing feel to it.  I am telling you, whoever figures this out will have more demand than they can supply.

[odyd]

That would be the point though.  Imagine the political goodwill...  you could get a senator to do your bidding.  It would only require some level of assembly with a manufacturing feel to it.  I am telling you, whoever figures this out will have more demand than they can supply.

like SW? you are being sarcastic. LOL

[spiritcraft]

like SW? you are being sarcastic. LOL

  Somewhat.  The Senator would stand there with you and announce your job creation plans.  Not like SW who only seems to want to destroy others. 

 

Say Trina did this (just picking a company)  If they were creating jobs in the US, do you think they could become exempt from tariffs?  I would bet on it.

[odyd]

  Somewhat.  The Senator would stand there with you and announce your job creation plans.  Not like SW who only seems to want to destroy others. 

SW did all that and STP did that too in Arizona. STP closed the shop and was on the tariff list.

[explo]

  That would be the point though.  Imagine the political goodwill...  you could get a senator to do your bidding.  It would only require some level of assembly with a manufacturing feel to it.  I am telling you, whoever figures this out will have more demand than they can supply.

 

Wouldn't the US based panel makers like SPWR and FSLR be a good start? Haven't they put a lot of manufacturing in South East Asia? I don't have the exact numbers, so I could be wrong.