49 replies to this topic

[sunnysky]

Aside from the subsidies, a favorable tax treatment policy is mentioned in the above article. Fifty percent of the capital gains tax for PV power generation plants will be refunded right away. This will cut the 17% tax in half and increase the investment rate of return by 1 to 2%.

[explo]

Aside from the subsidies, a favorable tax treatment policy is mentioned in the above article. Fifty percent of the capital gains tax for PV power generation plants will be refunded right away. This will cut the 17% tax in half and increase the investment rate of return by 1 to 2%.

Yes, this is the killer news I'm waiting for. It will add 15 cent value to Chinese PV plants to be share between owner, constructor and panel maker. I think most of it will go to normalize panel price.

[explo]

PV-Tech's summary: http://www.pv-tech.o...riff_zones_6478

One thing to note is how fine tuned the policy is. Even within provinces there are different classes. The rate matches local kWh/kWp*y potential with high precision to get an even IRR incentive across the country. It is clear that Chinese national government wants to set up a very sustainable framework for nation wide massive install of PV for years to come. Note how this will differ from bubble setups in Germany and Japan, where excessive subsidy levels are spent first years to get the market started causing boom/bust markets. I believe Japan wants a large install, so it might be a good market for years anyway, but will be a bit tricky with the German like cuts that will be required to not burn all the subsidies on early excessive soft costs. One thing to note is that big ambitions and spending by Germany and Japan are great demand creators, but the real mother boom for the industry happens when first either US or China or both decides to go for it. It looks like China now has decided it is time go for the big PV install.

[sunnysky]

Yes expo. Not only that, China believes that PV will be a key to drive the economy for the years to come.

 

Another important point about the new policies is that all PV incentives including the new subsidies and favorable tax treatment are supported by the increased (in fact doubling) tariffs on the electricity produced by traditional power generation industry. The total funds being collected, according to industry exports, are enough to cover current defecit and to fund the incentive program for all current and new projects up to year 2015. (Presumably, continue to fund the program at the then-current project capacity and scale.)

 

 

 

The NDRC also decided to beef up government-managed funds for the renewable energy subsidies by collecting more money from power producers.

Starting from Sept 25, China's power plants will have to pay 0.015 yuan per kWh for the electricity they produce for industrial clients, up from 0.008 yuan per kWh.

[odyd]

Ray's summary of tariffs

http://solarpvinvest...ubsidy-policies

 

I have Jason article with a view coming within an hour

[odyd]

Jason's explosive view of the FiT

http://solarpvinvest...e-availability-

[explo]

boom

[Pop2mollys]

Beautiful article, well written. CN solars will go parabolic with signs of shortage. Personally I believe analysts and the street in general underestimated just how quickly capacity/demand curve would contract. Perfect storm brewing...

[sac_solar]

Jason's explosive view of the FiT

http://solarpvinvest...e-availability-

I think I remember you saying these articles are now being picked up by search engines ? can you elaborate on the anticipated view these articles have ?

 

Nice work BTW

[Pop2mollys]

"India, the US, and South Africa will also have a high demand in Q4. The EU is expected to rebound through the end of Q4. There will be about an 8GW demand for the Chinese modules during Q4, 2013. H1-2013 Chinese global deliveries were about 9GW."

If this comes to fruition this is truly dynamic moment for solars. If Q4 demand is nearly as high as all of first half 2013 demand we will see some blockbuster guidance and more importantly with rising ASP some serious profits.

[odyd]

The 9GW for H1 is a global shipment figure only. I am thinking that China would be somewhere in the vicinity of 5GW.. So reality is probably 14GW.

I think he means 8GW overall including China in Q4 and perhaps Q3 being somewhere between 7GW.  So in total about 29GW exports and China combined. I think he estimated 1GW above the levels..  Imprtnat element is those who sold out their capacity, are price bound I think by contracts. Those like CSIQ with their levels being at 80% could ask for a higher price.

[explo]

I like the distributed PV model. You get paid more if you consume it yourself than if you sell it. Would be something for your breweries Pop...

[Pop2mollys]

I'm guessing for those that are sold out they are pretty much locked into prices they agreed too. It's a very good point you bring up with CSIQ, and could make for a very exciting 2H 2013. Not only will they be realizing three huge projects but also capitalize with that extra 20% of utilization on rising ASP amid surge in demand.

[odyd]

can you elaborate on the anticipated view these articles have ?

Yes, Bing News picks them up immediately, Google News picked the first one it is featured on Google Finance for JKS.  The second one is not and probably will be this evening. Somehow on weekends they run a different crawl system. In general terms it can be around 1000 to 600 unique views per article. In some case we could get 3000. Interviews can get up to 5K unique views.

[explo]

Yes, I'm also seeing a chance that last the capacity left might get the shortage pricing. It pays off to be mediocre when things boom.

[Pop2mollys]

I like the distributed PV model. You get paid more if you consume it yourself than if you sell it. Would be something for your breweries Pop...

LOL... Our brand is just entering NYC market this month... Very exciting.

[explo]

LOL... Our brand is just entering NYC market this month... Very exciting.

 

Cool. Let's hope you'll be sold out too.

[greensolar]

China introduces regional solar tariff zones

• http://www.pv-tech.o...riff_zones_6478

 

 

China is to install 206GW by 2030

 

[sac_solar]

I'm guessing for those that are sold out they are pretty much locked into prices they agreed too

 

without seeing the actual contracts its hard to say,  I suspect some still use a certain percentage that's tied to the relative spot prices so the ASP could vary a small percentage up or down,  this is just my speculation however since the ASP can be volatile

[odyd]

without seeing the actual contracts its hard to say

I am sure there is a mechanism to change the price based on ASP if exceeding 3 month period for delivery, same as poly, but sold out for the year today means within 3 month period. Q1 could be getting adjusted in December.