17 replies to this topic

[odyd]

I have reviewed an article Ray submitted to me, to be sent for the proofread, and it is about TSL, CSIQ, STP and Talesun. It is presenting TSL in a bad light and CSIQ in a good one. However it is looking at TSL from the perspective of European exposure and tariffs. Ray has not come up with this. He read an assessment made by a Chinese broker. I think that TSL's is going to scrape the sky this week.  I feel I should have bought the stock. Sometimes erring on a side of caution leaves you standing in a back, biting dust.

I do have TSL in my expensive account, so anything bought can still appreciate. I am not going to sell until I break even and that is in the first teen. 

[photon]

Hmmm, just like I suspected. What is TSL doing besides hoarding cash?.......and for what purpose.....to let them look like they have the  best balance sheet......like JASO? TSL is idle while others are swallowing market share. A fall from grace Imo.

[Pop2mollys]

In my humble opinion your going to see a parabolic rise in the whole sector. It's just not TSL its going to be all the top Chinese solars. Even if you sitting on alot of cash I would try to put a bid in pre market or fill up at open. This won't be a 1 day event, the next couple weeks could be epic. Anyone have current figures at their fingertips on most recent short interest data?

[photon]

True dat! The whole sector will rise, but what will make it such that TSL will be the biggest gainer? Market cap is fair value and they got no strategy Imo. What they gonna do with that cash? Acquisition? Or did they gamble on what the analysts were crying about......debt?

[Pop2mollys]

TSL was a disappointment last Q and their guidance also seemed to be a let down especially on margins. They have being eerily quit on PR front and have down nothing the past couple months to win over investor confidence. Doesn't surprise me they have been a laggard. This can all change on Monday.

Just imagine those which hold a large short interest in solars... They have to be chitten a brick right now.

[photon]

Indeed, Monday should be good, despite the lack of clarity on true winners from the EUROPEAN decision. Regardless, I am not so certain why many think that TSL will skyrocket this week, especially on this new development. IMO, TSL is in a state of indecision that will cost them their once prominent leadership position. Brand this and brand that, means squat .......Imo when brand is ever evolving going forward. TSL is no longer the leader or visionary for the sector......Imo. Their indecision is point in case. Wrong strategy Imo. Cash is not king!

[sunnysky]

TSL is one of my top holdings since Dec last year. Although it has been a laggard relative to other solars since then I've not sold a single share. It has a huge institutional following and the share actions last week are very encouraging. It may not be the biggest short term gainer going forward,  but its days have arrived, IMO. 

[photon]

I like a good debate, but previous institutional ownership is not a reason to hold a stock. The sector evolution is not about the has beens, but rather those who understand the importance of their sector and the way to maximize their foothold. TSL is a lost leader Imo. They need to bounce back in in a big way. Their evolution is less than ensuring and cash position is confusing. 

[sunnysky]

Of course, that is not the only thing but it does matter, Well, there is a long road ahead for this to play out. Nobody knows it for sure. That is mainly why I'm very diversified in my portfolio so I personally don't really care that much at all.  Next week, we all win

[pg6solar]

Its clear, though nothing new, that many look at (and comment on) solar stocks through the prism of their (current) holdings.

[pg6solar]

I think that TSL's is going to scrape the sky this week.  I feel I should have bought the stock. Sometimes erring on a side of caution leaves you standing in a back, biting dust.

 

One still most likely will have time in PM. That's why I suggested elsewhere that you may have a very early start on Monday (for whatever reason it stuck in my mind that you're on the West coast). 

[Rommel]

I will rephrase this debate this way: If cars were forced to sell for the same price then which one (between a Mercedes and Kia) one you would buy?

I find that this is exactly what is happening with the modules in EU.

 

The company that will do the best will be the one with the most desirable modules!!! Their fortunes are now directly proportional to the desirability of their modules.

[pg6solar]

Something else to consider on TSL ("the lost leader"). They mentioned during their last two CC that they could have sold more modules but were willing to give up sales for purpose of preserving their higher ASP status. Others were gaining "market" share by dumping their modules, something Trina refused to do (or at least did a lot less of).

[odyd]

Guys, let me explain things. I was advertising my desire to buy (more) TSL on Friday. I must admit that PV-Mag deterred my actions. There is nothing to say that us, enthusiasts, are the only group seeing this situation in such a light. Just read our Bloomberg gang

http://www.bloomberg...html?cmpid=yhoo

 

You think the world id not end only for a minute.

I think  there will be a lot more time to enter few names. In fact,my holding of TSL is high in price since 2010, that buying at any price is averaging down until I reach it. So I am good, this way. I think Rommel's point is pretty good. Brand will be the favorite. But I would also say quality and performance, will matter a lot more. I cannot forget that companies with outsourcing and outside-China factories will take the advantage to sell for less (as long as they have GM) I would, this creates more business for them.

Article from Ray

http://solarpvinvest...-solar-industry

[sunnysky]

I know YGE is not a favorite in this forum, its huge debt being a major factor. The company, however, has been transforming itself into not just a leader in the upstream manufacturing business but also a major player in downstream solar power development projects space. If the company executes its new strategies successfully, it may well be on its way to become a dominant force in the future of new energy paradigm , especially in China and as well as in emerging market. 

 

Here is a link to a relevant article:

 

http://solar.ofweek....0-28707459.html

 

Interestingly, it is mentioned in this article that YGE CFO had said the company could be profitable in Q3 or Q4 this year.

 

[pg6solar]

I have always maintained my view that Yingi the company will do just fine (to say the list). However, my view was always that YGE stock will not "perform" as well (mostly due to third party ownership that I never liked/understood). Hence my view that TSL (at least the stock, if not the company) will outperform. And it exactly the trend since March of 2009. 

[sunnysky]

I like to be in the minority

I picked YGE to win the contest for next week, I could have picked HSOL as well.