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July 7th - Global solar PV market to jump to 45GW in 2014 – Deutsche


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#1 Pop2mollys

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Posted 07 July 2013 - 03:37 PM

http://reneweconomy....-deutsche-15437
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#2 Guest_cfeng_*

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Posted 07 July 2013 - 04:02 PM

At 45GW demand, poly will be at $50+/kg...
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#3 Pop2mollys

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Posted 07 July 2013 - 04:12 PM

I believe this is a brand new forecast, which will be released at intersolar this week...
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#4 Uncle Chang

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    Posted 07 July 2013 - 04:52 PM

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/global-s…-deutsche-15437

    The future is not ours to see, even my 2013 prediction of 40GW is at the higher end of theirs.
    BUT, I do like this part...
    <<Tier 1 solar companies are now enjoying a rebound in margins, with prices for modules jumping more than 10 per cent from early February from 60c-63c/watt to 71c-73c/W. Even though the “street price”, code for cheaper modules in the mass market, remain around 60c/W.>>
    I hope the CN-11s do Sell at the said price accordingly!
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    #5 Pop2mollys

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    Posted 07 July 2013 - 05:03 PM

    http://www.businesss...-solar-recovery
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    #6 odyd

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    Posted 07 July 2013 - 05:18 PM

    At 45GW demand, poly will be at $50+/kg...

    Poly will never be again at $50, I doubt it ever reach $30 or $25.

    #7 Guest_cfeng_*

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    Posted 07 July 2013 - 08:03 PM

    Never say never...
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    #8 odyd

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    Posted 07 July 2013 - 08:43 PM

    I see, you you are also Justin Bieber's fan.
    The reason I say this because there is economic reason for poly not to be more expensive. The capacity is there, raw material is there, and process is getting cheaper. Those who make poly in large quantity will never allow anyone to join the industry unless they are at their production cost curve. Think of Chinese solar industry versus the world. Never out of free will, Chinese will allow anyone to create condition to take their market share.

    #9 outsmart

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      Posted 08 July 2013 - 12:20 AM

      Wait for Amy Song and others to upgrade the sector right after China and the EU solved their pv trade dispute.

      I wouldn't be surprised to see some parabolic moves over the next weeks.
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      #10 Guest_cfeng_*

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      Posted 08 July 2013 - 03:42 AM

      I see, you you are also Justin Bieber's fan.


      I'm not. But I'm glad to hear that you are cause I wouldn't know what songs JB has. BTW, how much of world's poly capacity has production costs below $17/KG including amo?
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      #11 odyd

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      Posted 08 July 2013 - 06:00 AM

      I'm not. But I'm glad to hear that you are cause I wouldn't know what songs JB has.

      This is the problem. You quote something, but you do not know why, I always check.
      I want to be frank with you. You could have said $100 or $500 in your opening statement, and it would be as meaningless.
      You do not know how many companies produce under $17, but you speculate that poly will go to $50.00.
      The rise in price, I suppose, is the mechanism of demand versus supply, correct? But how can you determine that without knowing the supply?
      So one more friendly suggestion. Instead of saying "never say never" use this formula "never say anything until you can back it up"
      Cheers

      #12 Guest_cfeng_*

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      Posted 08 July 2013 - 07:10 AM

      I didn't say I didn't know. I was asking you if you knew, cause if you do then I find your response that it will never happen peculiar.
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      #13 odyd

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      Posted 08 July 2013 - 07:15 AM

      Quite contrary I know. I know it, and since this forum was built I had not presented any different statements. The artificial factor could have changed it, but it will not happen now. There is nothing peculiar in what I say. I doubt you have an idea what the poly landscape really look like today, because of your statement.

      #14 Guest_cfeng_*

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      Posted 08 July 2013 - 07:24 AM

      There are a lot of demand unknowns between now and 2014/2015. And IMO demand will be much higher than people are expecting. But for someone to say it will "never" happen, given that they know the history and how long it takes and how much it costs to bring up new capacity versus doing the same on other parts of the PV chain, I find it peculiar that you will say "never".
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      #15 odyd

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      Posted 08 July 2013 - 08:03 AM

      I already gave the reason. For the similar reasons why personal computers will never be $5000 per unit.
      Price will go up as demand is greater than supply. This is not the case. In addition,you have specialized sector, which is holding capacity expansion to regulate price. Any demand increase capacity opens up so price does not go, but few selective operators enjoy profitability.
      Mass production is associated with cheap price. Poly is mass produced and will continue be due to:
      Raw material abundance
      Process
      Price controls.

      History is not bound to repeat. History of product development has never repeated early pricing. Pricing on material scarcity does repeat as in: oil, gold, silver. Demand fluctuates the price, but the demand in solar is not driven by material shortage by rather capacity and capacity is in abundance and will be controlled to remain in abundance.
      Can you see the difference?

      But for someone to say it will "never" happen, given that they know the history and how long it takes and how much it costs to bring up new capacity versus doing the same on other parts of the PV chain, I find it peculiar that you will say "never".

      Stop patronizing, the only peculiar thing left is that you produced zero formula for your $50 poly.

      #16 eysteinh

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        Posted 08 July 2013 - 08:10 AM

        I dont agree poly is mass production strictly speaking, because there is very long lead times for the production you can have spikes. (1-2 year production increase lead times) It is just as many other commodities like alluminum etc. Also there is technology differentiation currently allowing niche products that is not mass market.

        With that said prices might increase and spike, but they will come down, because as odyd correctly points out all you need is just to get more simens reactors online. So in that way it is mass production, but the thing is nobody is going to expand into simens now because it is not profitable. FBR perhaps, but not all have access to that. So i guess you could say I am sort of half way agreeing with odyd and half way agreeing with cfeng, we can have spikes shortly but in long run it will be low price.

        Also about capacity i have around 32 gw at 16-17 PRODUCTION cost (not included opex, interest rates etc) but currently producing at around 24 gw and will take some time to scale back to full production capacity. Numbers are from pv-tech pro china article. (issue 5, http://www.pv-tech.c...o/pv_tech_pro_5 for production numbers on page 12, and also the quarterly release and conference calls for cost levels) I have around 11 GW at 18-19$/kg but effective level is 9 GW because of lower staff and utiliation. I have around 5 GW at 20$/kg and unknown utilization levels, and 4 GW at 21+$/kg. Numbers are assuming 180 um wafers and 5.8 gram per watt consumables.

        Backing this numbers is also a study: A. Goodrich et al. i Solar Energy Material & Solar cell nr 114 (2013 - http://www.sciencedi...927024813000457) written by The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) looking at cost positions in USA. (So take those numbers and deduct for a china bonus for MGS that is around 1$/kg deduction in cost.) The minium price is 23$/kg long term. "(..) when the calculation is run at minimum sustainable polysilicon prices (which we calculate to be around $23/kg (..)" Quote is from the free abstract.
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        #17 odyd

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        Posted 08 July 2013 - 08:36 AM

        We have been here before, but it is ok to discuss this further,
        42GW of capacity available below $20 cash.
        63GW below $23.
        There is at least 7GW of poly in inventory at the vendors and at least 2GW at the buyers in the global setting.

        Since August, 2012 poly is pretty much below $21, almost a year going. Essentially last three quarters if you look at the Chinese companies, they have the most MW shipped, ever in their history. This will continue during this year. Poly has not reacted. The same what is happening in solar, consolidation, is happening in poly. 80% of the global supply of solar is saying lower the price to enter the market like Europe. Are they saying this because poly is going up and they are ok to lose money?

        #18 Guest_cfeng_*

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        Posted 08 July 2013 - 08:54 AM

        For the similar reasons why personal computers will never be $5000 per unit.


        Your analogy would be equivalent to $400/kg poly. Nobody said anything about $400/kg poly. But $50/kg poly is very doable given the right demand and supply. And unless something dramatic changes in the next 18 months in regards to supply, the demand that we are going to get in 2014/2015 will, as pop likes to say, explode the price of poly.
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        #19 pg6solar

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        Posted 08 July 2013 - 09:06 AM

        Exploding (up) price of poly will in turn explode (up, but somewhat less) price of solar panels which in turn will explode (down maybe significantly) that demand (end installation). So I do agree with Odyd that the whole supply chain from poly to modules will be "controlled" to be in balance with demand going forward in order to keep that expected end demand (a.k.a. poly will never see anything close to $50/lg).
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        #20 eysteinh

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          Posted 08 July 2013 - 09:06 AM

          Your number is just production cost. If you add the other costs you are looking at around 24 gw currently at 23$/kg roughly. That scales to 32 GW at full utilization.

          We should see price increase year end if demand hits 39+GW this year. If we are lower it could be well into 2014. This is inline with the well respected bernreuter research. http://www.bernreute...3-forecast.html "The spot price is predicted to rebound to a level of US$20 to 25/kg by the end of 2013."

          Avg price is still around 20$/kg for most polysilicon contracts. Thats around 11,6 cents per watt. Granted some buy spot at ~17$/kg. (around 9-10 cents)
          If we increase to 23$/kg that is 13,3 cents per watt. A difference of 1,7 cents per watt. and at most 4,3 cent increase.

          At the same time silver prices have gone down, silver was since 2 quarters ago more costly per watt than polysilicon. (Photovoltiac nr 18 page 25) granted that includes aluminium paste too but polysilicon was around 9 cents/watt and pastes 10 cents per watt. Now with reduced silver costs we are looking at more room for polysilicon.

          Since module costs are now a small part of the overall costs there is room for price increase while demand will stay high. Once the installers realize they cannot get as cheap modules they will rush in orders. It will be a sellers market instead of buyers market.

          I would add all of the yearly reports of the chinese companies have a note in risk section about the risk of increasing polysilicon prices. (Granted this is pretty much obligatory to include.)
          With that said the chinese companies are still highly competitive. This is a very small % of the overall gross margin. Also I dont think 50 $/kg is likely. (but 23-25$/kg could be) but I would not rule it out if there is a sudden demand spike.
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