16 replies to this topic

[Believer]

Hey guys,
I was wondering all the time that nobody here was talking about silverprice. (I didn`t read anything yet)
I just calculatet what modules need.
Here a link , please translate by your own:

http://gold-journal.de/

So the silverprice is based on 31,0 gramm, which is an ounze.
Let`s check out the cost per watt when silver-price is USD 35.- like it was in October 2012.
35USD:31g=USD 1,129 per gramm
I translate this sentence from the link:
It takes 80 tons of silver to produce 1 gigawatt of solar energy.

So 1watt should be 0,08gramm what is the need of silver.
1gramm = USD 1,129, so 0,08g = USD 0,09 costs for silver for each watt.

So if you calculate with current silver-price let`s say USD 19,50 per ounze it is just 55,71% from old price (USD 35.-)
So 55,71% from old costs USD 0,09 = USD 0,05 current costs for silver
THIS WOULD BE USD 0,04 cheaper production costs. I CAN`T BELIEVE IT!!! Please comment!!! :)

[explo]

This sounds like great news for cell cost. I think the savings are around 1.5 cents though.

http://silverprice.o...ce-history.html

I looks like Q1 consumption price was around 30 USD/oz. In Q2 it might be down to 24 and in Q3 we might be below 20. It depends on inventory days and contract terms.

I'm not sure how many cells were produced in 2012, but I don't think inventories grew much so let's say it was around the 30 GW installed. Then this articles suggest silver consumption is 0.0013 oz/W, i.e. silver cost was 4 cents per watt in Q1 and might be around 3.2 cent in Q2 and 2.5 cents per watt in Q3.

http://www.reuters.c...N09D2BB20121231

We are in cost going down and ASP going up mode now. That's a sweet mode for margin development.

[Believer]

Thanks for comment, explo!
Today module prices came out, minus 1,09%

http://pvinsights.com/

All the way down this sentence:
Demand in China appears decelerating in H2 2013.

I don`t think so. Of course it might be looking like it now, but goverment will make something within this month tp support local
market.

[Believer]

Explo, was there anything yesterday evening I didn`t recognize? What happened for example with chart of SOL. I was watching all day,
and I saw that SOL was very strong when somebody tried to push it down. But all of a sudden all solar went down.
Unnormal that SOL, who was one of the strongest till then, went down almost 11% from 2,48.
I thought, maybe it rose together with LDK because goverment might make tariffs on poly. Any idea??

[Djovanny]

Dont bet on it silver is about to go up big time . Load up

[explo]

Explo, was there anything yesterday evening I didn`t recognize?

I think it was just normal high beta trading falling back after peaking recent runnup in then morning. The solar11 stocks look strong I am not expecting a big retracement for solar11, rather that they consolidate around where they ended yesterday or maybe a bit lower. Today general markets look week, so we might see some more selling initially.

[outsmart]

Daily News June 26th, 2013

[JulyWebb]

Thanks Believer this is Great. I was in the metals business most of my life I should of realized that.

[Pop2mollys]

"Solar Stocks to stay Hot"

http://blogs.barrons...OL_hpp_blog_stw

[JulyWebb]

Unbelieveable this is the first time,Vishal Shah has had nothing good to say for over 2 years.

[spiritcraft]

You mean HAD something good to say. That was quite upbeat actually, basically stating a return to profitability and sustained positive eps. Nice.

[greensolar]

$155b solar energy projects planned in GCC
http://gulfnews.com/...n-gcc-1.1205071

[greensolar]

Saudi Arabia explores potential $109bn solar industry

http://english.alara...r-industry.html

[greensolar]

Flood of applications submitted for large-scale solar PV projects in Turkey
..........................
No wonder CSUN want to set up production of modules in Turkey
extra 5c bonus
.................................
Turkish feed-in tariffs are set at USD 0.13/kWh, with an additional USD 0.05/kWh bonus for projects using locally produced components.
.............................
http://www.solarserv...-in-turkey.html
..............................

[greensolar]

TrendForce: Chinese PV producers are eliminating their inventory


http://www.solarserv...-inventory.html

[Pop2mollys]

You mean HAD something good to say. That was quite upbeat actually, basically stating a return to profitability and sustained positive eps. Nice.

Though I take what these analysts say with a grain of salt it seems like there is a hint of sentiment change in the air. I truly believe we are entering the next solar bull market. The rally is just warming up....

[JulyWebb]

You mean HAD something good to say. That was quite upbeat actually, basically stating a return to profitability and sustained positive eps. Nice.

Yes I did. :) No sleep yet.