16 replies to this topic

[spiritcraft]

http://blogs.barrons.../#comment-48514

Any of you folks care to jump on Gordo and Ben when they are down? I think the air is just right to obliterate them.

[JulyWebb]

I liked your post on Barrons. It made me laugh!

[Toadiac]

His credibility is minimal at this point.If he is short,he has been getting hammered on the 3 stocks he mentioned.

[Pop2mollys]

This is th thing with Gordo. I will give him credit where credit is do. He made a good call to short a long time ago when profits went negative. Problem is I think he got married to these short positions and he is getting emotional and has blind love for these positions. Big mistake! Now he is paying the price and giving up all those gains...

[littleguyintucson]

his is th thing with Gordo. I will give him credit where credit is do. He made a good call to short a long time ago when profits went negative. Problem is I think he got married to these short positions and he is getting emotional and has blind love for these positions. Big mistake! Now he is paying the price and giving up all those gains..

If you are talking trading as a current rise in price rub it in for now but he has 3 years of the past 4 on you:). I am happy for your short term gains. Hopefully this offsets some of the heavy long term losses of the past few years for most.

The segments as a whole is not profitable for the US listed Chinese solars. There is only 1 company that shows good signs of reasonably attaining profitability in the next few quarters. All the rest are looking to scratch and climb back to break even.This pattern is during the boom period of shipments. As an investor, I do not jump for joy at a $0.05 net but it is an improvement.

[ILOVEPV]

As an investor, I do not jump for joy at a $0.05 net but it is an improvement

Just for information. As an investor I jumped on numerous big name solar stocks in Dec 6 2012. 6 months later my PV solar account made 161%. This is one of the best ever my achievement as a passive investor if you use a gain/time ratio.
Those who was more selective/lucky and have chosen CSIQ or JKS made even more: 350-450%. When a wide public learns that an industry become profitable it is going to be too late to invest for multiply fold gain if any gain at all .
It does not matter how deep your knowledge in PV solar industry just a common sense tells that this industry is a mankind energy future. A lack of a deep knowledge does not let me to pick only sure winners while a nice diversification decreases a risk. Actually I doubt that anybody on Earth is able to predict what company is going to be a big winner -becoming some kind of PV solar AAPL. Probably all big names (say 15 companies) will be okay with 2-3 winners and 2-3 outsiders.

[outsmart]

PV is a real gamechanger, most people still don't realize this.

Why it is a gamechanger ?

Because it is an ultra-high volume consumer electronic product that follows a cost curve that is totally different from any other Power generating Methode/Device.

[Pop2mollys]

his is th thing with Gordo. I will give him credit where credit is do. He made a good call to short a long time ago when profits went negative. Problem is I think he got married to these short positions and he is getting emotional and has blind love for these positions. Big mistake! Now he is paying the price and giving up all those gains..

If you are talking trading as a current rise in price rub it in for now but he has 3 years of the past 4 on you:). I am happy for your short term gains. Hopefully this offsets some of the heavy long term losses of the past few years for most.

The segments as a whole is not profitable for the US listed Chinese solars. There is only 1 company that shows good signs of reasonably attaining profitability in the next few quarters. All the rest are looking to scratch and climb back to break even.This pattern is during the boom period of shipments. As an investor, I do not jump for joy at a $0.05 net but it is an improvement.

Now that's a funny joke. You act like I have been heavily invested in solars the last 4 years. I have no heavy losses in market but instead been up ever since the crash like most. I only went very large into solars in January of this Year.
To give you some perspective I put the most money ever into the market in Jaunary. With that large stake of money I'm up about 200% as of right now. I let it all ride over and over again and said F it I'm not going to listen to haters. Now let's get back to Gordo the most he can make even if all his short went BK is 100%. Let's say he is up 50% on his shorts of he shorted at top and added on way down. So in 4 years Gordo made 50% and in 6 months I have made 200%? Now who is eating who's lunch?

[littleguyintucson]

Just for information. As an investor I jumped on numerous big name solar stocks in Dec 6 2012. 6 months later my PV solar account made 161%. This is one of the best ever my achievement as a passive investor if you use a gain/time ratio

Congratulations, The December time frame was a good period to be investing. I am glad you made some of your losses back. I bet though the losses going from 10-15 to $1-$3 was not made up in the gains from $2 to $4. If you keep buying on the dips and selling near the peaks though you should be able to make a bunch of that back, The questions are which ones to invest in as you noted.

The question is now again not the past but investing forward , If, profits do not manifest itself for certain companies, is it wise to hold now or is the basic fundamentals suggesting continued bullishness. A miss and losses in Q2 is expected for most all. Several are looking at losses in the second half as well. If Q2 ER becomes a period of missed expectations for some and surpassing for others, and or sluggish or stagnant margins in the 7-12% range, what do you view as the general market reaction?

This past period has raised all boats almost equally based on hope. I believe you should see some clear separation over the next 6 months regarding the better ran companies with better cost structures.

For the borderline companies, I am looking for the major impact to profits being the Forex adjustments. A dropping yen again rmb or a rising Euro can have serious impact on profit or loss for some that are borderline profits.. The trend of both of those has been down over the past year. The Euro to dollar as well. If the trend continues then profits are negatively impacted. The Yen is flat this Q to the RMB and the Euro has been up and down this Q to the dollar but basically flatlined around the $1.30 range.

Some suggest their is hidden risk to Europe and the economy there from lingering banking issues. This could drive down those profits as well as tighten and lower than expected shipments that will be squeezed by tarrifs.

And with the markets at $15,000 and due for a correction, what do you think will happen to solars?

Good luck investing.

[ILOVEPV]

I am glad you made some of your losses back.

LOL. My first ever PV solar buy was made on Dec.6, 2012. I feel sorry for those who lost a lot on a previous solar stocks debacle but fortunately it was not me. I actually was introduced to PV solar industry only 1 week prior to my big investment. All the first Dec 2012 week I studied this business, history of success and failure. and the only reason for me to to feel sorry for myself is that I put only 17-20% of my entire stock market account on PV solars. Other 80% barely made me 10% for the last 6 months. And another point is my PV solar account is 90% costed out i.e. to start incurring a loss stocks I hold must lose more than 90%. Can you imagine this scenario?

[solar123]

Well,

I got into PV a few years back and lost a ton. I'm almost back to where I was, due to averaging down, and flipping between CSIQ, HSOL. JKS and JASO, yet I love how everyone here seems to be making a killing, without ever talking about losses.

It sounds like most traders here should have a few million put away already, must be nice.

GLTA.

[ILOVEPV]

solar
you are genious if you managed to return your severe multiyear losses within several months. Your flipping between those stocks was also superb.
I can not say it for myself. My buy and hold PVs portion of portfolio works better than trading. As for brilliant traders you sounds it is you are.

[JulyWebb]

Hedgefunds bleed these stocks to death and made them Buys of a lifetime. That's why I have said I think the shares of LDK or being traded by hedgefunds. They don't have anyone at this time to sell their stock shares too. An article today by the Street.com was pushing LDK & STP the nearly dead for a reason and that reason is I think is their buddies are screaming to get out.

I invested earlier in 2010 and watched my stocks Go Up and Come back down. It is much more important to keep up with what's going on in this sector or company specific than it is to listen to any analyst, their agenda is usually always not in your best interest. I did make an exception with Nomura but that's about it.

[solar123]

ILOVE,

Actually,

I sat on my hands until I discovered this forum and owe it all to the people here, including yourself.

You trade all the time and talk about it all the time. I owe some of my trades to you.

[spiritcraft]

The article was about Gordo saying that PV would never work... again. This was his thesis when he lost big in 2009 and his thesis again when by complete chance he was a winner, He wasn't right, but he made a killing. He is spreading lies and falsehoods and acting as if he is some nutty snakebit teabagger claiming that Jesus was riding a dinosaur 2,000 years ago. He is a flat-earther of the highest order and I don't think he is in for any big gains this time around.

He is not right now and has never been right about PV being a fad, joke or worse.. I think he knows better but is a blatant liar and manipulator and needs to be called out by those with more evidence than I have at my fingertips at the moment.

As for losses, I have suffered a bunch, am still down but think I will come out the other side smelling like a rose. I also have a clean conscience and am solidly on the bright side while gordo and his fellow swine are most definitely on the dark side.

[ILOVEPV]

May be you remember that several months ago we had a discussion that since PV solar panels are commodity you should not expect many fold run. In those times CSIQ was below 4. In particular we were talking about low single digits PE. Being on a stock market for many years I dared to argue this point saying that all the run will be done under high PE and this run can be huge and fast. So what we have now. All the stocks are much higher than they were at the time of discussion while CSIQ hits 11.34 today i.e. made 3 fold for the last several months. My first gut feeling was more or less justified (besides SOL)
Now info for record. Those survivors (probably China 7-8 big names) will be trading higher as a factor of 5-8 compared to a current price within next 24 months i.e. if e.g. CSIQ will continue in the same pace you can see it trading in 50-60 range. Same "rule" will apply for US based PVs such as SPWR, SUNE, SCTY and FSLR.

[littleguyintucson]

My first ever PV solar buy was made on Dec.6, 2012. I feel sorry for those who lost a lot on a previous solar stocks debacle but fortunately it was not me

you are genious if you managed to return your severe multiyear losses within several months. Your flipping between those stocks was also superb.

As a newbie you timed it great, good for you I am glad you have made money because that is what we all want to do. Stay educated and stay on top of things. May people are far more knowledgeable and share that today than when I started investing in Solar in 07 after buying my first system for my house.

I was a newbie back in 07 and made a lot of money on solars into 08 as well as that was a relative bull period. Solar is a high risk reward. It has not ever been a long term hold rather trading stocks. A wrong timed buy or sell can significantly impact your gains or losses as does the cyclical nature of the bull bear rushes. (query the LDK message board of how to make a million) .

I was also nyeve and ignorant about the segment dynamics market influences and costs and lost a bunch in 09. The first crash in 09 took a heavy hit on many, if you re-invested buying and selling pops and buying drops in late 09, you made back 2000% of what you lost. The Same with recent activity. People lost a bunch and have been able to make back some of or if they were not invested in the crash, may have made nice gains. . So be ware, you have seen some of the volatility, Jaso at 10 one day the next week back in the 6's. CSIQ to 10 then int he 7's and 8's and back to 10. I would expect bull rushes and then pullbacks until the clear visibility of stabilized profits for all.

enjoy the ride, invest with knowledge, there are many on these boards that have accrued knowledge and share it with others.