Jump to content


Dear Guest,
"SolarPVInvestor Forums" is a subscription based site, devoted to investors with an interest in major public solar companies trading on North American, as well as global exchanges. Discussion themes include all aspects of the industry with current news, technology, financials, and investment theses. 
Modern, well organized platform with many ways to extract information, "SolarPVInvestor Forums" is the most sophisticated community of solar investors in North America. Create account and request 24-hours trial package, to experience full access, it is free. 

for access after registration, send an e-mail to

 

 


Photo

Chinese Capacity Dead Count


  • Please log in to reply
22 replies to this topic

#1 odyd

odyd

    管理员

  • Administrators
  • 7,407 posts
  • Joined 03-January 13
  • LocationAirdrie, Alberta
  • Holdings:CSIQ

Posted 09 June 2013 - 01:43 PM

I have a file of companies including 248 businesses after I ran a check on April 2nd. I am conducting the check today and will add to this post, any dead or presumed dead companies 1.Jiangsu Yongjiang New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. cell 300, module 500MW proof :http://www.enfsolar....iang-new-energy 2. Zhejiang ASN-Solar New Energy Co., Ltd. 250MW No proof yet but site is down 3. ERA Solar Co Ltd cell 180MW and 180 to 200MW module site is down, main site does not show any solar products proof: http://www.erasolar.cn/ 4. Zhejiang Qianlong Solar-PV Technology Co., Ltd.200MW module proof : http://www.enfsolar....r-pv-technology 5. Anhui Tianyi Solar Energy Co., Ltd.wafer 100MW , 100MW module proof: http://www.enfsolar..../16197/ty-solar 6. Ningbo Sunbe Electric Ind cell 75MW, 125MW of module No proof cannot access the site : http://www.sunbe-solar.com/ 7. Dongguan Kinghu Solar Technology Co., Ltd.100MW module site is a whole sale link :http://www.kinghusolar.com/ 8. Shenzhen New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. 100MW site is down; http://www.szsrg.com/ 9. Zhejiang Riyuewang Solar Technology Co. 100MW , Ltd. site down http://www.ryw.cc/ 10. Qingdao Well New Energy Co., Ltd. 80MW site not accessible http://www.well-pv.com/ 11 Shandong Botai Energy & Technology Co., Ltd. 30MW proof : http://www.enfsolar....i-energy-tech-c


  • 0

#2 odyd

odyd

    管理员

  • Administrators
  • 7,407 posts
  • Joined 03-January 13
  • LocationAirdrie, Alberta
  • Holdings:CSIQ

Posted 09 June 2013 - 03:06 PM

So my cleaning up process from April 2nd to June 9th, had removed 28 companies, including removal of the US-listed companies' subs in some cases. Result was a reduction of 2.1GW in wafer, 1.1GW in cell and 1.9GW in module. The June 9th state is 18.1GW in wafer, 25GW in cell, 37.8MW in module. Companies 500MW of module and above have over 15.5GW of capacity. Above is not including any (or to my knowledge) US-listed capacity. Module bankable capacity is in area of 29GW when combined with US-listed
  • 0

#3 Guest_Klothilde_*

Guest_Klothilde_*
  • Guests
  • Joined --

Posted 09 June 2013 - 08:14 PM

I take it the mainland Chi capacity list (US non-listed) that shows 27/27/38GW wafer/cell/module then just needs to be adjusted with the new figures? Or are we talking about different scopes here?
  • 0

#4 odyd

odyd

    管理员

  • Administrators
  • 7,407 posts
  • Joined 03-January 13
  • LocationAirdrie, Alberta
  • Holdings:CSIQ

Posted 09 June 2013 - 09:30 PM

That is the new capacity out of the numbers quoted. Attached is the list of companies, which participate in exports and due to the size we have their names listed. The % represent the share of the deliveries for the volume excluding US-listed and the "others"
  • 0

#5 odyd

odyd

    管理员

  • Administrators
  • 7,407 posts
  • Joined 03-January 13
  • LocationAirdrie, Alberta
  • Holdings:CSIQ

Posted 09 June 2013 - 11:08 PM

I am adding the list fo companies with 300MW or more module capacity, which are strongest candidates for "others" tab presence.
  • 0

#6 odyd

odyd

    管理员

  • Administrators
  • 7,407 posts
  • Joined 03-January 13
  • LocationAirdrie, Alberta
  • Holdings:CSIQ

Posted 10 June 2013 - 10:03 AM

I reviewed the data again. I removed anything which was below 100MW as disabled at this point or unable to sustain itself under current pricing mechanism. I kept integrated value chain intact if any of the value chain was greater or equal to 100MW. This move had reduced the number of companies to 147 in total. This also left 123 module companies left. I am still discussing Mainland Chinese not including US listed. Current outcome including all of it is 16.1GW module, 25GW of cell and 36GW of module. Within this, 500MW of module companies are worth 15.5GW.
  • 0

#7 Guest_Klothilde_*

Guest_Klothilde_*
  • Guests
  • Joined --

Posted 11 June 2013 - 01:01 AM

Current outcome including all of it is 16.1GW module, 25GW of cell and 36GW of module.

Adding this to your capacity figures of Chi11,Taiwan, ROW, I get rough total global capacities of 41GW/51GW/58GW. For simplicity maybe 40/50/60 ? What do you think? Capacities near those numbers mean that we are heading towards rapid price and margin expansion for wafers and cells imo.
  • 0

#8 explo

explo

    师傅

  • Premium Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,484 posts
  • Joined 29-September 12
  • LocationEurope
  • Holdings:JASO, JKS, TSL

Posted 11 June 2013 - 01:32 AM

Where did all the wafer capacity go in that case? Is that the main capacity killed? Make sense from a GCL the destroyer perspective, but still, where did all that equipment go?
  • 0

#9 explo

explo

    师傅

  • Premium Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,484 posts
  • Joined 29-September 12
  • LocationEurope
  • Holdings:JASO, JKS, TSL

Posted 11 June 2013 - 02:05 AM

Here's 4.5 GW wafer reporting 187m loss on 104m revenue and reaching negative 660m equity. Those diluting 25m infusing from Fulai hardly makes a difference. Has Jack Lai gotten an ulcer yet and does Peng have his plan to flee the country ready yet? http://investor.ldks...8676&highlight= Let's see if the trading algorithms have learned to read a balance sheet this time.
  • 0

#10 Guest_Klothilde_*

Guest_Klothilde_*
  • Guests
  • Joined --

Posted 11 June 2013 - 02:30 AM

Yeah, I don't understand why you are still a fan of the Chi 11. Shouldn't it be Chi 8 by now? When will you prepare your nice comparison table for Q1 results?
  • 0

#11 Guest_outsmart_*

Guest_outsmart_*
  • Guests
  • Joined --

Posted 11 June 2013 - 02:53 AM

"Here's 4.5 GW wafer reporting 187m loss on 104m revenue and reaching negative 660m equity." Interesting to see that LDK is not able to ramp wafer-output any further than this: "For the second quarter of fiscal 2013, LDK Solar estimates its revenue to be in the range of $100 million to $150 million, wafer shipments between 250 MW and 300 MW and cell and module shipments between 30 MW and 40 MW." Even there is a lot demand out there (Daqo is guiding for a 200% Q/Q increase) Shows that LDK probably needs wafer prices way above current levels for at least 3GW of their wafer capacity. And it is not only LDK, a lot of the integrated players still don't fully utilize their wafer capacity, simply because it is too expensive (even at cash cost level) If demand gets stronger, I expect some nice moves in wafer spot prices
  • 0

#12 explo

explo

    师傅

  • Premium Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,484 posts
  • Joined 29-September 12
  • LocationEurope
  • Holdings:JASO, JKS, TSL

Posted 11 June 2013 - 06:04 AM

Yeah, I don't understand why you are still a fan of the Chi 11. Shouldn't it be Chi 8 by now? When will you prepare your nice comparison table for Q1 results?

The relevant Chi depends on what your looking at. Investment objects or competitors for your investments. So though I would not invest in STP I follow their exports. I think with LDK, we are only missing CSUN for the Q1 results, so I'll probably wait for them too before I post. Since STP don't report that table is a Chi10 comparison, but I have REC, FSLR, SPWR and GCL in there too.
  • 0

#13 Guest_Klothilde_*

Guest_Klothilde_*
  • Guests
  • Joined --

Posted 11 June 2013 - 06:57 AM

Great, look forward to seeing the table.
  • 0

#14 odyd

odyd

    管理员

  • Administrators
  • 7,407 posts
  • Joined 03-January 13
  • LocationAirdrie, Alberta
  • Holdings:CSIQ

Posted 24 June 2013 - 08:23 PM

Zhejiang Hengji PV-Tech Energy Co., Ltd. filed for bankruptcy http://www.ne21.com/...show-43138.html I got the company set for 175MW of modules
  • 0

#15 odyd

odyd

    管理员

  • Administrators
  • 7,407 posts
  • Joined 03-January 13
  • LocationAirdrie, Alberta
  • Holdings:CSIQ

Posted 29 July 2013 - 12:01 AM

Xiamen Fortune-wide Solar Energy Technology Co., Ltd. this one is off the internet, 500MW modules

http://www.solar-far...x/CN/index.aspx

 

Abo New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., also this one, 300MW 

http://www.qdabo.com/en/chanyeyuan.asp

 

Shandong Sunneeg Solar Power Co., Ltd., 400MW also gone from internet

http://www.sunneegsolar.com/

 

Econess Energy Co., Ltd. 100MW

http://www.eco-pv.com/


  • 0

#16 odyd

odyd

    管理员

  • Administrators
  • 7,407 posts
  • Joined 03-January 13
  • LocationAirdrie, Alberta
  • Holdings:CSIQ

Posted 10 November 2013 - 10:45 AM

I have updated my file since July 29th for the first time.

I could not find access to following

  • Guodian Jintech Solar Energy
  • Jiashan Tengye Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd.
  • Zhejiang Soco Technology
  • Anhui Rinengzhongtian Semiconductor Development Co., Ltd.
  • Wenzhou Changlong PV Technology Co., Ltd.
  • Huantai Group
All about 1.6GW wafer, 200MW cell and 1.12GW module

  • 0

#17 odyd

odyd

    管理员

  • Administrators
  • 7,407 posts
  • Joined 03-January 13
  • LocationAirdrie, Alberta
  • Holdings:CSIQ

Posted 14 December 2013 - 02:50 PM

December 14th update,

  • NESL is taking off the list as added to Trina for 400MW,
  • Knive Solar Power for 300MW module, can't find it. 
  • Perlight Solar site not available at cell 250MW and 250MW module. 
  • CP-Solar Co., Ltd. 120MW module
  • Hebei JG Solar Energy Technology Co., Ltd. 300MW cell and 150MW module, 
  • Ningbo Bolite Photo-electric Technology Co., Ltd. 100MW module
  • Jiangsu Baucha Solar-energy Development Co., Ltd. 100MW wafer
  • Shandong Tianxin Photovoltaic New Energy Co., Ltd. 300MW cell
  • Zhejiang Kingo Solar Technology Co., Ltd. 150MW cell
It looks like total of 920MW of modules, 1GW of cells and 100MW of wafers came off in the span of the month. 400MW on the top moved to a tier 1 player.
 
 
 

  • 0

#18 Paybak66

Paybak66

    中级会员

  • Premium Members
  • Pip
  • 397 posts
  • Joined 15-January 13
  • LocationWashington State, USA
  • Holdings:TSL

Posted 14 December 2013 - 03:14 PM

Odyd, how has the 400 MW "moved to Trina"?
  • 0

#19 odyd

odyd

    管理员

  • Administrators
  • 7,407 posts
  • Joined 03-January 13
  • LocationAirdrie, Alberta
  • Holdings:CSIQ

Posted 14 December 2013 - 03:24 PM

I have revisited the list of the EU companies, and many of those no longer are in business. I am curious if their certificates will be sold to higher bidder or simply given away to strongest ambassadors. 


  • 0

#20 odyd

odyd

    管理员

  • Administrators
  • 7,407 posts
  • Joined 03-January 13
  • LocationAirdrie, Alberta
  • Holdings:CSIQ

Posted 14 December 2013 - 03:25 PM

Odyd, how has the 400 MW "moved to Trina"?

Trina took over NESL capacity in the jv agreement. 


  • 0