36 replies to this topic

[odyd]

I think we must not to forget that the shipment may not be for a sale. It could be just to replenish the stock. It may also mean that sales could have happened out of inventory stocked in Europe months before.

[explo]

Yes, that makes it more difficult. We need to look over longer periods. If I look at total export for 2H, then SOL shows biggest positive discrepancy to the guided 405 MW shipments. They are exporting significantly more than that guided total 2H shipments and on top of that they guided close to 30% domestic shipments in Q4. Either they'll beat or they are building significant stocks in Europe. For the other names it is harder to draw any conclusions. Some seem stable and might beat, some need a lot of domestic shipments or overseas stock sales to not miss.

[odyd]

Explo, we have few buyers of the data here.
This is what I am proposing. I would like to open up the the forum, which will be reserved only for the buyers of the data and restricted even for registered users. I have been working really hard on giving access to quality info on SPVI and this forum. I hate to complain but selling data is tough. I am hoping that we can get data buyers from the forum. The prices are reasonable and info is pretty solid. Ultimately buyers are supporting existence of this forum and SPVI.
Whoever has an opinion on this please let me know. For those who buy data and do want to discuss it in the closed forum please let me know, if you are interested in such a setting. I opened up new forum, it is located at the bottom of the forums' list and put restriction on it. Just testing the abilities in regard of restriction. I also ask to refrain from making deep comments on details of the data in public settings. It is confidential and it costs money, so it makes sense to stay that way. Nobody has done that yet, but me to popularize it on SA, and I only used Trina's figure for two months. Thank you for the support, and let's hear from members on this.

[explo]

That's a very good idea, then we don't have to hold back on details when discussing the numbers. The restriction seems to work, since I could not enter the data forum.

To raise interest for the data as time progresses I think that some full examples of some interesting quarters might be given free or heavily discounted once the data is old, like say a year old, since the value of the data depreciates quickly. Then people can retroactively try the tool out to see how much it could have improved their analysis.

[odyd]

Hi Explo I moved you id to the restricted area, so check the message left. For others, who are reading this please let me know of your thoughts either by the way of private message or here. No point to have two people share, this can be done by PM, however if there is a great interest, it makes a lot of sense to have a place..

[explo]

i can access it now

[Boss]

hi Odyd

I think you should give access to the solarzoom data for free. When you look at Facebook and others,they make their money from advertising. That is how you grow traffic to your site.
All other Solar site try to get members to pay for this or that premium,why not be the only site where stuff is totally free for your members??
Just my opinion.

[odyd]

<p>Two small issues with the suggestion, Boss. Solarzoom data is not mine to give. I get the data with purpose of selling it. In China this data costs $42 per month, here (not all of it is here) $27. I have given a lot of info for free as well, in fact lot of the articles written by me already have this data in one way or another.
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Second: advertising makes a lot of money, true but you need a single ingredient: advertisers. This board has 60 members, which has probably 30 active people. There is an advertising from Google on the right side. Just so you know I made .50 cents today. All other ads you see (SPVI site) is an exchange, meaning that I post the banner and someone will put the link to my site on their conference page etc.
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Let me also offer an interesting statistic. I have placed free presentation about the data in article yesterday. I have ability to track downloads from the site. Based on tracking 637 unique visitors read Solarzoom article. 14 downloaded the presentation. People are so languid that they do not care to click.
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I was always curious how people invest thousands of dollars without knowing a single thing about what they spend money on. Sort of situation here. Greentech sells their quarterly update at $3000 but Q4 data worth $75 from Solarzoom appears to be expensive. I can guarantee you that with your knowledge of the industry plus this data, you would save $2925, and be a lot more ahead.
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Lastly one more observation. Facebook has nothing to sell to its membership. People who visit Facebook click on ads so others can sell the product. I have never heard of research firm, analyst firm or investment organization which would give away their data free.

[Boss]

Odyd.

Fair enough. Was only a suggestion.

[odyd]

Np

[odyd]

Boss and all.
You will be able to read about Q4 in PV-Magazine on Monday. This is when I expect the article to be published.
You will see certain sentiment in it. I would not be able to do this without Solarzoom and their data. This is why I recommend purchase of it to all investors, and reason behind my campaigns. I hope you will like it.

[odyd]

Hi all I made changes to SPVI Reports Store, to make the experience, hopefully a lot better.
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http://solarpvinvest...om/paid-reports
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You can find free section there now, with couple of presentations as well as the two categories of reporting. There is also a neat function of the cart, which can help buy more than one item at the time. Lastly and I am sort of freaking out, as I cannot set it up yet, there is the coupon system available. Meaning I will be able to offer discounts to buyers, and I thought that members of this forum could receive such a discount.
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Here I ask you for the idea, but please remember that data is not mine to give. I draw commission only. I get it, free is the best but I cannot do it. So let me know, we have $27 per monthly report and already discounted by $6 (if adding all months) Quarterly report at $75. What discount % you propose?
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I want to give back to this community even more.....
Someone asked me the other day what I get from it? First of all satisfaction but this is not everything.

My commission after PayPal fees is 30%, so from monthly report my income is around $7.70, just to close the gap on ideas of me retiring on this income

[Pop2mollys]

First of all Ijust want to say this forum in general is a blessing.... Yahoo absolutely sucks a huge one. Secondly would it be fair to say that having access to these monthly numbers and breaking them down it's easier to predict within a certain threshold which companies can beat guidance? Or is it impossible to tell?

[explo]

I'm not sure which discount percentage makes sense, but the progressive discount is a good idea. The value of one montly report is highest while it is the most recent monthly report (the bunch discount gives this effect indirectly). Next step of discount could be for reports of months that has already been reported by the majority of major companies, since the value is then less for predicting that already reported quarter, but still good for details and modelling correlation between panels sent on exports and reported panel shipments.

[explo]

First of all Ijust want to say this forum in general is a blessing.... Yahoo absolutely sucks a huge one. Secondly would it be fair to say that having access to these monthly numbers and breaking them down it's easier to predict within a certain threshold which companies can beat guidance? Or is it impossible to tell?

I think the data says a lot, but for mature markets it is an inventory movement from the place of production towards the target marketplace. This movement view is interesting, but it does not tell the complete shipment recognition picture. I think we need to see Q4 reported to tell exactly how much the exports data could predict.

[odyd]

Hi Pop2mollys, the reports have taught us so much already. However in the business of statistics you need data comparisons. We have what they " delivered" when they will report we will get what they shipped to get revenue. We will have an idea how existing inventory flow for each company model. We will see how their reported shipment flows in versus deliveries, average, percentage etc.
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What we know is where they are shipping, they do not have warehouses in every country but if they did this does nto stop us to know,
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where, what quantity, who ships the most from china, who leads in which country. When other ifs are answered, we will know who will meet their guidance, two months ahead, of publication. This is only 3 months of details but by 6 six I am sure we will have it dialed in. So if stock moves down or up based on guidance, no longer you guess but you know.
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Those who bought one , are buying every one afterwards. You can not stop knowing I suppose.
Visit presentations free September report and Q4 presentation, see what you think.
As we move forward this will get a lot sophisticated, today this is just data, but in 6 months those could be models.
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@Explo, I think 10% for new release members only, after the quarter is released for all probably 30% overall , maybe for members 50%, I still cannot make this thing work to give discount

[odyd]

I got the coupon thing working. What you guys think about the following?
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I am leaning toward 10% off to anyone on the board for each new month moving forward (January)
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However I can offer up to 20% as a promo to any member of the board buying Q4 pack, one time only. This is about 25% less than buying monthly as pack is already discounted as Explo observed. If I can get 25 to 30 customers monthly, next three months I think I can comfortably discuss with Solarzoom their contiuning support for this idea.
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send me private message please if you would like to receive 25% to oringinal price, just one time deal!