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Another Milestone for the Informed Investor


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29 replies to this topic

#1 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 07:53 AM

Hi everyone,
wow, what an action on the market. I hope gains are popping for all. Friends for SZ came a long with interview style utilization report. I just had a peek at it and trading stocks, seems a lot easier if you looking at info which is extracted from industry members, insiders, etc. Rather extreme info, to say the least.
SZ has sold data to a brokerage house with a forward 12 months sale. I will not say what they have got.
Instead, I would offer a bid auction. Perhaps I can come back to SZ and suggest if there is a consensus.

Between being busy and trading, find a moment to suggest it here

#2 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 09:43 AM

No interest? I wonder if you buy a stock if you know they only have 50% module utilization?
I thought people would care for this.

#3 Pop2mollys

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 09:48 AM

You already know I'm in....
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#4 explo

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 09:48 AM

Utilization reports would be of great value. What would the offer look like? How many companies (an overall view rather than just the names followed would probably have extra value when it comes to utilization in the industry)?
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#5 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 09:52 AM

These are interview type info. 11 US-listed, production rate per month, opinion on what is happening in the company, a brief statement. I did not ask for any one else. Combination of GADP already tell you Chinese prices, shipments and GADP.

#6 explo

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 09:55 AM

Okey, that sounds interesting. Adding GCL to that would give a quite clear picture of solar11, but if they wafer and cell utilization is broken down for solar11 we can almost guess GCL utilization.
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#7 explo

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 09:56 AM

Would this be discounted when bundled with deliveries and ASP? What are we looking at?
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#8 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 09:57 AM

It is even broken by poly.
So what is the price for something like that?
I saw gentlemen to buy 10K shares of CSIQ, I am curious what would he pay to know how many modules in China were produced in March and April?

#9 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 10:18 AM

Another really good part of it is that it actually tells you what lines are operating, like mono or multi. Remember these are interviews done by Chinese researchers going an extra mile to tell you what is happening.
I could even suggest to customize it. For the private client certain questions could be asked, or observation could be made based on the criteria. It is about protecting your gains and secure value of your money. Based what I see or hear from people on this board we were operating within 2M in funds, now perhaps $3M. I sold $1.7K worth of data in May ($250 gain to run a site rest to SZ). If you operating a fund worth $3M would you consider spending thousand dollars on information and go to sleep without a doubt?

#10 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 10:37 AM

Teaser for the team,
Nobody owns LDK here right?
Cell lines operating by the company 3.7MW a month in April. Modules at 20MW. Poly not operational, wafers on and off, M3 and M4, not clear what production looks like.

Daqo anyone?
No production in ChongQuing, XinJiang is running. That is poly production.

Suntech 30% utilization on cell/module wafer about 10M wafers a month in April, maybe 30%

#11 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 12:00 PM

I am not sure what motivates people in STP and LDK, Those companies do not exist at this point?
Those are just trading shells. I would withhold information of this type no matter what it costs.

Anyone wanting to price this info?
I am asking so I can tell you what brokerage from the US paid Solarzoom for it

#12 Pop2mollys

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 12:13 PM

What kind of price are they asking for this data?
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#13 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 12:18 PM

They have not set the price.
They told me the price brokerage paid for it. 12 months advance. Jason said he offered a discount. We are not talking the analysis here again. It is info like I gave in this thread, but think of eight other names outside STP, LDK and DQ.
I said I will find out what people want to pay for it. Here I am

#14 Pop2mollys

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 12:29 PM

Maybe we can pool our for a group of us here? I'm willing to pay a good amount but I'm really relying on you odyd to give so e sort of fair value for what you think it's worth, you have seen a sample and gave us a sample of the sample. You know me I have never turned down paying for a package. I would chip in several hundred as part of a group that purchases this, maybe more depending on what you consider the value is worth?
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#15 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 12:39 PM

I got to be honest with you, I really do not want to price this. Do yo think utilisation is important?
So say you bought a stock and you spent $40K on it. Would you buy it if you knew that utilization of factory was at 50% and they have not ran a wafer since January?
Of course you could still make money on the stock, but if you knew chances would be you would not buy it.
For someone like yourself with quarter mill out there this could be a $1000 for someone who trades on leaves it is a waste of money. Since we are here as a unit. I would like to know what people here think.
This again will be a 5 to 10 people ordeal, but let's have a some fun what value that represents to anyone?

I promise if we get some of the people say what they think I will tell all what broker paid for it. Of course the broker will sell it to everyone he is advising as part of his business. So the price he is willing to pay is relatively high, but let's have some fun shall we?

#16 explo

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 01:09 PM

Odyd, i think value is relative to portfolio size. So say that some are willing to pay 1% of their portfolio in research data fee and others 0.1% (stocks average 7%, Buffets average 30% annual returns). This adds to other fees, like ADR fees, broker fees etc. Among your members you'll have different budget rooms based on this, so the price decides the available market size.

I'll buy a first discounted pack to evaluate if it can be bundled together with the usual global ASP package at say $160-170 (this is $2000 a year which might be well above 0.1% of many portfolios, including mine). It's hard to realize full value until you have it infront of you. The more data you have the less additonal you might think you need, so I would expect incremental discount if deliveries and ASP are already bought for the month. So separately if it costs $60, it might get $20 discount for each other package bought.
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#17 Paybak66

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 01:21 PM

It is even broken by poly.
So what is the price for something like that?
I saw gentlemen to buy 10K shares of CSIQ, I am curious what would he pay to know how many modules in China were produced in March and April?


Some "gentleman"? Geez, i thought no more name calling here?! LOL. (i couldnt resist!).

Odyd, are you asking what we would be willing to pay to purchase the data on a QUARTERLY basis?

Just to toss an aprrox amount out, to your point, maybe $500 per person?
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#18 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 01:39 PM

The brokerage paid in excess of 5 figures per month, but it is reasonable to assume it will be selling to its clients to make money. I proposed $100 per month extra, but I am willing to argue to about $200 in total including GADP., which is about $60.



You should be able to deduct your research costs dollar for dollar as part of your investments, no?

However 0.10% per portfolio? So a $1M portfolio would be managed at the research cost of $1000, LOL, I am sorry but that is the funny sh-t.

#19 explo

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 02:42 PM

Yes, 0.1-1.0% is my budget range guess that people have (1-10% of gains for a mediocre investor). Maybe only for the JASO style prudent ones. :)

Note that I meant per fee. So say that they have 10 other investment supporting fees then I guess that is the range of fees. For some it might be 10% as well though if they have no other fees. I know nothing about marketing and pricing, so I only speak for myself. The 0.1-1.0% range feels more like of a nobrainer than the 1-10% range.

My understanding from before was that ASP data was the most expensive of the 3, so that's why I thought it was around $60. I'll try one pack at $200 and evaluate values of the 3 different types of data. Can't really say before looking at it and for ASP we need the Q1 reports to understand better.
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#20 Bodhi

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    Posted 21 May 2013 - 03:17 PM

    I'm a bit confused as to what you're saying Dydo, but i'd be willing to throw cash once this market settles a bit. I think everything thats happened in the past 2 days is far from normal, it's not a good idea to really try and price something like that right now. If we know those rates and could predict when a 'beat' was coming, and it actually meant profits for the company, i think that is conducive to much more predictable share price movement than what we're seeing right now.
    So once we get a little stability and things return to 'normal;, i'd def. be willing to throw down some cash for ya
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