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1 hour ago, SCSolar said:

I have  feeling that the 2 are a little disconnected but are heading south to the same levels of margins(zero to negative). Both are heading south in price for similar reasons. A supply glut and a lack of demand.

It seems like solar stock prices do not care to much about oil price. Even oil stock prices seem to not care too as much anymore.

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29 minutes ago, explo said:

It seems like solar stock prices do not care to much about oil price. Even oil stock prices seem to not care too as much anymore.

I think the investment world has come to realize Oil and Solar are 2 different market segments.

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7 hours ago, jacques said:

plus this, china pv exports first quarter ok:):

https://www.china5e.com/news/news-1087094-1.html

Can you explain why you are so optimistic?

I personally think the current market situation is horrible.  Major analyst houses have adjusted global demand for this year downward because of corona and are now predicting a market contraction.  In parallel, I see that companies continue to expand capacities aggressively.  This in combination is quite horrible.

The article you are quoting suggests that the increase in march exports vs. jan/feb results from debottlenecking of production / logistics after corona impacted China strongly in Jan & Feb.  Also the march figure is no increase vs. year ago if you look at it.

I'd suggest to look at spot pricing to gauge the state of the market.  To me the polysilicon price chart here reflects a cliff-like market collapse starting april.  I expect this to be reflected in the moduleexport figures for april and subsequent months:
http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-463.html

Eager to hear opinions on this.  Anybody bullish on the market and why?

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 i am not bullish, but the market is it:)  exports in Q2 would be miserable, ok. Q2/3..but Q4 :)?

cliff-like market? not uniform! but yes,general cliff-like  prices! big players are in and will be  more dominant.  shorties will come in action too...ok, but  i play with:)

sry for my english

ps i find that First has a chance too:)

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12 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Can you explain why you are so optimistic?

I personally think the current market situation is horrible.  Major analyst houses have adjusted global demand for this year downward because of corona and are now predicting a market contraction.  In parallel, I see that companies continue to expand capacities aggressively.  This in combination is quite horrible.

The article you are quoting suggests that the increase in march exports vs. jan/feb results from debottlenecking of production / logistics after corona impacted China strongly in Jan & Feb.  Also the march figure is no increase vs. year ago if you look at it.

I'd suggest to look at spot pricing to gauge the state of the market.  To me the polysilicon price chart here reflects a cliff-like market collapse starting april.  I expect this to be reflected in the moduleexport figures for april and subsequent months:
http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-463.html

Eager to hear opinions on this.  Anybody bullish on the market and why?

i'am living in Germany, i know that's bla bla, but:): :)

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/14/esg-investing-numbers-suggest-green-investing-mega-trend-is-here.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

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https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/renewables-grow-as-covid-smashes-fossil-demand-in-biggest-energy-shock-since-war-iea/2-1-800619

Great news here, but so much depends on how the world comes out of this.  Personally, I don't fully trust this most recent market rally - sold a bit more CSIQ and ENPH yesterday - have a bunch of Covid plays that I got into early in the crash.  Astonishing that ENPH is creeping back toward all-time highs again. 

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3 hours ago, SolarRoof said:

...Astonishing that ENPH is creeping back toward all-time highs again... 

I don't get it but then again I'm not following ENPH closely.  Musk said that U.S. residential was dead so I'm wondering where all the ENPH shipments will come from that the market is seeing.  Can anybody explain please?  Anybody holding through May 5th earnings?

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On 4/30/2020 at 10:35 AM, Klothilde said:

I don't get it but then again I'm not following ENPH closely.  Musk said that U.S. residential was dead so I'm wondering where all the ENPH shipments will come from that the market is seeing.  Can anybody explain please?  Anybody holding through May 5th earnings?

For some reason, people must be looking for a longer term bounce back in solar. Those homeowners I do not think are looking to add solar right now witht he economic uncertainty

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waiting

On 5/2/2020 at 12:44 AM, SCSolar said:

For some reason, people must be looking for a longer term bounce back in solar. Those homeowners I do not think are looking to add solar right now witht he economic uncertainty

waiting for Godot and csiq/jks . 13?12? 10???? 17/18/20? no feeling but ubiquitous temptation, must i play the game? hum... like in norwegian airlines ... not really lucky or badly my play , but seems that i must play long, not confortable(

 

 

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SEDG getting crushed after earnings as ENPH continues to rise.  Perhaps the market is turning toward ENPH with its superior tech, safety and warranty. 

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4 hours ago, SolarRoof said:

SEDG getting crushed after earnings as ENPH continues to rise.  Perhaps the market is turning toward ENPH with its superior tech, safety and warranty. 

Confused? I am? Did they maintain or raise full year guidance? That Q2 revenue guidance is terrible. EPS for 2020 was only $1.03.  A price over $50 is crazy even if they run EPS growth 50% YOY.  I am not certain they can do that in todays economy.

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I've been selling ENPH in the 50's before and since the CV crisis and buying into beaten down stocks that seem more likely to double, triple, etc., than ENPH reaching over $100.  It's been a crazy ride up from under a buck but Badri has pulled all the right levers and has a product line perfectly suited for the next decade and beyond (if the world starts spinning somewhat normally again...).

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20 hours ago, SCSolar said:

EPS for 2020 was only $1.03.

This was before the ER, with the new guidance this will be revised down.

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6 hours ago, Klothilde said:

This was before the ER, with the new guidance this will be revised down.

They will easily earn over $1.20 for the year, even with 0 in Q2. 2021 will be absolutely monstrous and I am not trying to pump. I see at least $2.50 per share conservatively. The analysts have not modeled for new product line and battery/storage solutions. Enphase is taking market share like crazy. Badri is amazing and their plan and vision is coming to fruition. I am not selling a share unless I need to. 

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I agree 100 percent with statement above but know the stock has been up and down within this massive rise and may still return to 30's again.  If there is a coming market downtrend, I still feel there might be better opportunities than ENPH at $57 -- perhaps even ENPH at 30 or 35, but more likely something of quality that gets beaten down on a few of those Dow -3000 days that might double or triple or more during a recovery.  ENPH is my largest holding, however, and I'm glad I got to see firsthand (on my roof) how much better they are than the company that still has the majority of the market - SEDG.

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On 5/9/2020 at 12:40 AM, singular said:

They will easily earn over $1.20 for the year, even with 0 in Q2...

If I take the Q1 GAAP EPS of $0.50 and strip off the gain in fair value of derivatives and the income tax benefit I end up with an EPS before adjustments of approx. $0.24. 

In Q2 they are pointing to approx. 40% lower shipments which translates to an EPS of around $0.06.

So imo if ENPH is to record $1+ in EPS for the year (without significant one-time gains) then their shipments in Q3 and Q4 will need to recover quickly to pre-corona levels and even grow significally beyond.  I think this is unlikely, as we're already getting close to Q3 and from what I'm reading in the news investing in solar has to be the least of priorities right now for you folks over there...

But you guys for sure know better.  Whatcha think of the current investing sentiment in the U.S. for residential PV?

 

Edited by Klothilde

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