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For those of you interested in Enphase, yesterday they announced an offering of $320 Million in senior convertible notes. This was one day after they announced that Joseph Malchow (has a lot of experience in VC) joined their board of directors. Well today they announced the pricing of the notes. Expert below. Very, very bullish. Buyers want in and are willing to pay. 

Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) today announced the pricing of $320 million aggregate principal amount of 0.25% convertible senior notes due 2025 (the “Notes”) in a private placement to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). Enphase also granted the initial purchasers of the Notes a 13-day option to purchase up to an additional $30 million aggregate principal amount of the Notes to cover over-allotments, if any. The sale of the Notes to the initial purchasers is expected to settle on March 9, 2020, subject to customary closing conditions, and Enphase estimates that it will receive approximately $312.5 million in net proceeds (or $341.8 million if the initial purchasers exercise their option to purchase additional notes in full) after deducting the initial purchasers’ discount and estimated offering expenses payable by Enphase.

The Notes will bear interest at a rate of 0.25% per year. Interest will be payable semiannually in arrears on March 1 and September 1 of each year, beginning on September 1, 2020. The Notes will mature on March 1, 2025, unless earlier converted or repurchased in accordance with their terms. Enphase may not redeem the Notes prior to the maturity date.

The initial conversion rate for the Notes is 12.2637 shares of Enphase common stock per $1,000 principal amount of the Notes (which is equivalent to an initial conversion price of approximately $81.54 per share of its common stock). The initial conversion price represents a premium of approximately 52.50% to the $53.47 per share closing price of Enphase common stock on March 4, 2020.

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Yeah, at first I was concerned the notes issuance might be considered a negative, but the pricing certainly indicates management expects the company to continue to grow well into the foreseeable future.

Managed to sell a few more trading shares on the spike just now.  Love this volatility embedded in a steady uptrend!

 

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I do not like convertibles. They almost never convert. I would prefer a secondary personally. I am surprised at the low interest though.

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7 minutes ago, SCSolar said:

I do not like convertibles. They almost never convert. I would prefer a secondary personally. I am surprised at the low interest though.

Great timing with regards to share price and historically low interest rates (especially after an emergency 50 point basis cut the other day). I think this is a great plan. I believe they will be paying off the remainder of their debt as well as acquisitions. I love this move.

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5 hours ago, Klothilde said:

CN Feb module exports collapsing you guys:
http://m.solarzoom.com/article-137768-1.html

Please keep in mind that Jan was already horrible.  Make your own conclusions you guys!

Yes it is known that production was significantly impacted. Jinko also had some sales delayed due to Italy. I can gather with the globalness and lock downs of entire regions, sales will be impacted.

 

Lets not forget, what impacts CN solars will impact FSLR as well maybe to a differing extent.

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It is not my intention to scare anybody, but the recent PVInfolink write-up gives me vibes of weak Q2 demand because of corona.  Just posting this as food for thought because we've been hearing from some companies out there that everything is fine.  Make up your own mind.  Let's see if we can get more info or vibes from the CSIQ con call later, wonder whether their voice will be clear or whether it will be trembling.
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200326/1058168.shtml

"...The second quarter will become an empty window for overseas demand..."

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Coronavirus Crushing Global Forecasts for Wind and Solar Power
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-crushing-global-forecasts-wind-172228562.html

I get a vibe here that U.S. residential solar is particularly affected, you guys with U.S. residential-centric stocks be careful now.

"...Residential U.S. Solar

Morgan Stanley projects American residential-solar volumes may plummet 48% in the second quarter. And the pain will linger. Analysts at the investment bank estimate year-over-year declines of 28% and 17% in the third quarter and fourth quarter, respectively.

It’s not just lockdowns slowing sales of rooftop panels. Morgan Stanley said the industry is being hurt by a slump in housing starts and by consumers indicating they may postpone or cancel home renovations..."

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GCL to add 60GW of module capacity coming in 4 phases. Phase 1 15GW  startinf in 2020.

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200330/1058776.shtml

 

According to the project implementation plan: the module project will be invested and constructed in four phases from 2020, the first phase is 15GW, and the estimated investment is RMB 5 billion. The second, third, and fourth phases are respectively put into operation according to market sales and capacity utilization after the first phase is put into production. The situation will be implemented in phases. The total investment of the project is estimated to be 18 billion yuan, of which the total investment in fixed assets is about 12 billion yuan.

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Along the lines of what Klothilde has been suggesting, IHS cuts 2020 solar installations to 105GW. That is down 16GW from 2019 installs and down about 35GW from previous 140GW mid range forecast for 2020

 

https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/2020/03/31/ihs-markit-releases-new-2020-solar-installation-forecast-in-light-of-the-impact-of-covid-19/#gref

 

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Good Gracious.  The bad thing is companies in China keep expanding capacities like nothing happened.  Kinda what is happening with oil.  We have this demand shock and Saudi Arabia goes ahead and expands output.  We all know what that has lead to in prices.

Edited by Klothilde

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10 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

Good Gracious.  The bad thing is companies in China keep expanding capacities like nothing happened.  Kinda what is happening with oil.  We have this demand shock and Saudi Arabia goes ahead and expands output.  We all know what that has lead to in prices.

Saudi Arabia and Russia are looking at taking out the expensive U.S. Oil shale industry that has production costs in the upper $30's to $48 dollar a barrel range. When you compare that  to what had been the most expensive oil of deep water drilling of $25/barrel, the Oil Shale industry will be put out of business. The first company filed for bankruptcy protection already. 

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Yass, that's why Trump is now keen on raising oil prices.

On a different front we're getting further evidence that the U.S. residential PV sector is among the hardest hit by Corona:
‘No One Is Being Spared’: Coronavirus Shutdowns Sap Demand for Residential Solar
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/coronavirus-shutdowns-equate-to-sharp-decline-in-demand-for-residential-solar

Wonder what the ENPH folks are up to these days.  Anybody still long?  Share price still seems quite rich to me in light of all these doomsday articles.

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7 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

Polysilicon dropping again big time on sunsirs.  We thought OCI leaving the market would drive prices higher.  But then came corona.  This is horrible you guys. 
http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-463.html

SunRun has withdrawn 2020 guidance and laid off employees amid the slowdown of US residential installations.

 

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/04/07/sunrun-withdraws-2020-residential-solar-guidance-lays-off-100-employees/

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