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Hi guys, I came across the following recent doc which looks like a summary of the administrative review of the Obama tariffs.  If you scroll down you'll see they determine hefty AD tariffs for the CNs.  Does this mean that cell and module exports from CN to USA will continue to be tariffed heavily and thus be out of the question?  I'm kinda confused because some people here have repeatedly suggested that tariffs are essentially history and that the US will be flooded with bifacial crap in no time.  And this applies only to the Obama tariffs, on top you have 201 and 301.  Not sure what to make of this all you guys.
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/02/10/2020-02563/crystalline-silicon-photovoltaic-cells-whether-or-not-assembled-into-modules-from-the-peoples

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Corona wreaking havoc in the module supply chain:
"As logistic hiccups are not going to subside any time soon, components such as junction boxes and aluminum frames take longer than expected to deliver and global module shipments are disrupted."
https://en.pvinfolink.com/post-view.php?ID=302

Will this affect Q1 shipments is the question (I'm talking about the CN here of course)

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15 hours ago, jacques said:

Some phenominal numbers in their.

150GW global demand

20GW shipments

18-19% GM 

They could be looking to gross $850-$900M.

The extra global shipments should add about 80M in Opex.

You are looking at 2019 with Opex at less than $500M

2020 OPEX pushes  $570-$600

Interest runs$55-$60M

The suggestion is $220M Net before Taxes and adjustments.

Those numbers suggest $4 a share in EPS.

The only thing holding this back is the impact of the stock run up while they have the convertibles outstanding.

 

 

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That would explain the sudden surge in the stock price.  Wonder if it will hold, or fall back before earnings.  Earnings, of course, should tell the tale.

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5 hours ago, SCSolar said:

Some phenominal numbers in their.

150GW global demand

20GW shipments

18-19% GM 

They could be looking to gross $850-$900M.

The extra global shipments should add about 80M in Opex.

You are looking at 2019 with Opex at less than $500M

2020 OPEX pushes  $570-$600

Interest runs$55-$60M

The suggestion is $220M Net before Taxes and adjustments.

Those numbers suggest $4 a share in EPS.

The only thing holding this back is the impact of the stock run up while they have the convertibles outstanding.

Haven't looked at the article but my instinct tells me there's plenty of wishful thinking in it.

Yes yes yes, they've had a nice margin expansion over the last quarters, which resulted from high module ASPs coupled with a drop in upstream component prices and a migration to in-house wafering.  However the trend has reversed recently, meaning that module ASPs have come down significantly while upstream has stayed flat.  Means they're up for some nasty margin compression in Q1 and Q2.

Why am I the only soul on earth to see this?

Also keep in mind they are preparing the next secondary, so it's all about hyping up the company at this point.

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1 hour ago, Klothilde said:

Means they're up for some nasty margin compression in Q1 and Q2.

Why am I the only soul on earth to see this?

Maybe it's because you've been saying the same thing for what--10 years now?

:)

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8 hours ago, SCSolar said:

The only thing holding this back is the impact of the stock run up while they have the convertibles outstanding.

possible to find actuel info about jks-bonds?

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Head of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association giving more details about how corona is disrupting the supply chain. He's even lowering installation forecast for China to 35-45GW.  I don't know about you guys but this guy is giving me bad vibes with what he's saying.  Just hope FSLR doesn't use too many CN materials.
https://cj.sina.com.cn/articles/view/6187066030/170c722ae01900nrcd?cre=tianyi&mod=pcpager_fin&loc=7&r=9&rfunc=21&tj=none&tr=9

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Again, works out well that ENPH built their factory in Mexico to avoid tariffs - printing new highs daily - quite a run from .76 to 42.  Earnings on Tuesday - will be interesting to see if it drops like last qtr (even after great numbers).

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On 2/15/2020 at 7:03 AM, SolarRoof said:

will be interesting to see if it drops like last qtr (even after great numbers).

Yeah, that's a distinct possibility.  But if it does, I'll certainly be increasing my trading positions again!

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2 hours ago, SolarRoof said:

Just wow...

Enphase Energy Q4 EPS $0.39 Beats $0.33 Estimate, Sales $210M Beat $205.27M Estimate 4:17 pm ET February 18, 2020 (Benzinga)

Love it. So excited for this thing to fly. Gap up tomorrow - 25 million shares short are going to get roasted. 

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14 hours ago, singular said:

Love it. So excited for this thing to fly. Gap up tomorrow - 25 million shares short are going to get roasted. 

WOW Just WOW - Enphase up 37% toady. That $55 price now looks like a forward PE of  30 ish. Congrats if you own it. I got jittery feet when I dipped my toes in it a month or 2 ago at $24 then it pulled back.

 

Solarpete: I presume you house is now being paid off 10 years ahead.

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4 hours ago, SCSolar said:

WOW Just WOW - Enphase up 37% toady. That $55 price now looks like a forward PE of  30 ish. Congrats if you own it. I got jittery feet when I dipped my toes in it a month or 2 ago at $24 then it pulled back.

Thanks. Today is by far the single best day of my investing life. I am so wired, can't concentrate on pretty much anything right now.

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I hear ya...  SEDG reports in an hour and they'll likely blow it out of the water, which will push ENPH further, or they'll be some indication that they are losing market share to ENPH, which will push ENPH further.  (BTW, I rode SEDG from 18-30's a couple times a couple years ago and thought I did great -- it hit 126 today.

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55 minutes ago, singular said:

Today is by far the single best day of my investing life.

CONGRATULATIONS!!!!

Don't even try to concentrate on anything else.  Just enjoy the day.  You've earned it (by dint of your stock research and conviction in holding ENPH through earnings)!

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18 hours ago, singular said:

Thanks. Today is by far the single best day of my investing life. I am so wired, can't concentrate on pretty much anything right now.

Congrats!!!  Good job.  Enjoy it.  You saw it coming.

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19 hours ago, solarpete said:

CONGRATULATIONS!!!!

Don't even try to concentrate on anything else.  Just enjoy the day.  You've earned it (by dint of your stock research and conviction in holding ENPH through earnings)!

 

1 hour ago, Jetmoney said:

Congrats!!!  Good job.  Enjoy it.  You saw it coming.

Thanks, Pete and Jet. I appreciate it.

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22 hours ago, Klothilde said:

January CN module exports down 35% yoy.  Jinko down 47% yoy.  February looking horrible because of corona.  Just sayn'.

http://m.solarzoom.com/index.php/article/136805

I believe the drop in Q1 is due to lower manufacturing output and the use of modules in China. The Corona virus is having an impact which will probably last into Q2.

 

The Corona virus is probably worse than what is portrayed. The actions taken by the CN government suggests it is. They shut down cities, they are monitoring people for sickness, they are doing random inspections of people inlcuding transport cariers and truckers. i do not think you can trust their numbers or the U.S. numbers. I mean the Princess Cruse ship has a 20% infection rate of passengers. The death rate was suggested at 2%, if you look at global deaths vs reported cases(if accurate) then you have a roughly 5% death rate. That is 2 to 3 times what they were suggesting a month ago. Even in the U.S. the president says whe have like 10 people infected. Then the reports are we have 57.

 

As far as impacts, this is going to hurt economic numbers. The Wuhan area is heavy industry with a lot of auto suppliers. The shutdown of Wuhan and other areas reducing manufacturing to 50%, is going to hurt the manufacturing around the globe. This is something that is going to last through Q3. I don't think this is over just yer, it is going to linger.

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UhOh, this is bad news for FSLR,

 

BP has indicated that all their power stations being built are being built using double sided modules. They ran a test project a few years ago and found it was well worth it. They would be disappointed if the plants only generated 8% more power. They expect a minimum of 12% in properly designed systems. They are getting better ROI on the projects and with historical data they are able to get better financing.

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200303/1049740.shtml

 

Chris Buckland, Technical Director of BP Light Sources, a British photovoltaic project developer, once introduced GTM (Greentechmedia): "In the UK, if the rest of the system is properly designed, then if we find that the double-sided technology improvement is less than 8%, we It will be very disappointing. We expect a gain of up to 12%, especially in less sunny areas such as Northern Ireland. We are very confident, and our investors are now confident

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I don't see why this is bad news for FSLR.  This article suggests that bifacial Si is more competitive than monofacial Si and nothing more.  It suggests a migration from monofacial Si to bifacial Si just like we experienced in general from multi to mono.

Also don't be fooled by the numbers.  If your gain of 12% is offset with higher CAPEX and OPEX of 10% then your lcoe gain is a mere 2%.  Meh.

When it comes to First think 21 cts dropping 13% a year with a 12GW backlog at an ASP of 34 cts.  That's your nutshell there.  Hope you're not allergic to nuts.

 

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Looks like China demand is now being pushed down from 40-50GW to 30-45GW due tot he Virus.

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200303/1050037.shtml

Regarding the market outlook for 2020, Wang Bohua, vice chairman and secretary general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that the original estimate was 40-50GW, and the impact of the epidemic may be 30-45GW.

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11 hours ago, Klothilde said:

When it comes to First think 21 cts dropping 13% a year with a 12GW backlog at an ASP of 34 cts.  That's your nutshell there.  Hope you're not allergic to nuts.

When it comes to First think missing earnings expectations 5 quarters in a row.  That's your nutshell there.  Hope your portfolio isn't allergic to stock prices going nowhere.

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