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1 hour ago, Klothilde said:

Terrific!  No wonder module prices are at all time highs!

That's still quite a flurry there right at the end of the year.  It shows the Chinese CAN execute large numbers in a short period of time if they want to.

Now the question becomes, how much that was planned but not executed last year gets carried over into this year, instead of cancelled outright.  And that seems to be an open question.  As the article notes, estimates for China next year are from 20 GW to 40 GW.  That's quite a difference.

The rest of the world, however, seems to be moving full speed ahead, so we're no longer hostage to Chinese governmental policy.  They can be a hindrance, or icing on the cake, but they no longer dictate our fate.

 

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35 minutes ago, singular said:

LONGi guides doubling of net profits to new record for 2019
https://www.pv-tech.org/news/longi-guides-doubling-of-net-profits-to-new-record-for-2019

I don't understand, how can that be if as some profess, the prices are being sold at cash cost? I mean Q2 operating income was higher than Q1 and Q3 was higher than Q2? Those facts just don't jive, you can't be profitable and have operating income climbing if your selling at cash costs.

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1 hour ago, SCSolar said:

I don't understand, how can that be if as some profess, the prices are being sold at cash cost? I mean Q2 operating income was higher than Q1 and Q3 was higher than Q2? Those facts just don't jive, you can't be profitable and have operating income climbing if your selling at cash costs.

One has to be very careful with generalizations.  You cannot just simply state that "the Chinese" are selling at cash cost.  While this applies to many players in many sectors of the value chain Longi is definitely making good cash with mono wafers.

Coincidentally in some of my previous analysis I identified the mono wafer step as pretty much the last bastion where profits are currently made.  However I think this may change quickly as capacity expansion is likely to wipe out any excess profits here as well over the next months.

Very sad if you don't have any protected market.  😞

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3 hours ago, Klothilde said:

China slashing PV subsidies in 2020 by 50% to 1.5B RMB.  Everybody expected 1.75B RMB.  Horrible.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-23/china-aims-to-halve-subsidy-budget-for-new-solar-plants-in-2020

So the subsidy is going to be $216M rather than an expected $252M? A $36M drop doesn't seem to be all that significant.

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On 2/1/2020 at 4:03 AM, Klothilde said:

Corona wreaking havoc on the PV supply chain in China.  Mandatory work stoppages may affect JKS and CSIQ but not FSLR.  Glass prices may go up which is bad for anybody planning to ship bifacial to the U.S.
https://www.pv-tech.org/news/coronavirus-expected-to-impact-solar-industry-supply-chain-roth-capital

Yes, and the article also says the resulting shortages will probably lead to (albeit temporary) price INCREASES for solar supply chain components.

Of course, the question is how much do volumes get reduced, but higher prices will offset that.  In short, we simply don't know what the final effect will be at this time, especially because we DON'T KNOW how much of the CN workforce is actually idled.  But there's absolutely no reason to automatically assume total gloom-and-doom.

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Enphase announced 4th Q CC for Tuesday, February 18, 2020 at 4:30 PM EST. It is one week earlier than anticipated and is moving strongly today. 

SPWR also announced their upcoming CC for Wednesday, February 12.

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ENPH... Just think about when they really push their product line aboard -- also, they have a small market share compared to leader SEDG who has inferior products, terrible warranty issues and even legislation that is working against string inverters.

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On 2/4/2020 at 12:34 PM, solarpete said:

ENPH, the gift that keeps on giving.  Thanks to them, I'm paying my house off 4 years early.

 

On 2/5/2020 at 8:04 AM, SolarRoof said:

ENPH... Just think about when they really push their product line aboard -- also, they have a small market share compared to leader SEDG who has inferior products, terrible warranty issues and even legislation that is working against string inverters.

This is such an exciting time to be an Enphase investor.  Everything seems to be falling right into line. Badri is really a great leader and has done a great job executing their long term vision.

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2 hours ago, singular said:

This is such an exciting time to be an Enphase investor.  Everything seems to be falling right into line. Badri is really a great leader and has done a great job executing their long term vision.

Agreed.  Right product, being brought to market at the right time, and most importantly, by a management team that knows how to MAKE MONEY off the situation!  No "profitless prosperity" for these guys.

Mind you, there's been good money to be made in DQ recently as well....

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Longi appears to be suggesting the 146GW that some have bantered as a 2020 goal is a conservative estimate and are looking at 150GW in 2020 or more.

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200210/1041121.shtml

 

1. How do you judge the quarterly demand for photovoltaics in 2020?

In fact, the development of the photovoltaic industry is relatively continuous. We believe that the process of 19-20 years is a continuous growth trend, and this growth trend is relatively certain. The installed scale was at the level of 120GW in 19 years and the level of 150GW in 2020. Of course, there are different forecasts from different agencies in the industry. The conservative 146GW and the optimistic 60GW are all available. We believe that the entire installed capacity and overseas investment enthusiasm for photovoltaics is relatively high. As mentioned earlier, the cost of photovoltaic installations continues to decline, reflecting the economics of photovoltaics, which is very cost-effective compared to other forms of power generation. The number of countries with more than 1GW ranges from 7-8 in 17 years, 13-14 in 18 years, more than 20 in 19 years, and more than 25 in 20 years. According to feedback from our overseas sales team, there is generally an increase in the overall market.

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1 hour ago, SCSolar said:

Wow what was the news that drive JKS and DQ today? 118% for JKS and over $25 a share.

An upgrade to $30

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1 hour ago, dydo said:

An upgrade to $30

Sold out my 5,000 shares a wee bit too early. Dumped last week at $20.50 range after re-accumulating at a 18.90 range.

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same,was a swap from csiq. luckily  i have 1/3.restant. backswap tentation big here..hum, waiting delta 4 plus...

... now i am in after hours out,delta 4 plus for csiq but i don't  realy trust the swap.gest waiting

 

Edited by jacques

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Australian large-scale PV market apparently going bust because of grid saturation issues.  CSIQ fans may want to check how this will affect their favorite company since this for sure is a key projects market for them.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/were-out-big-contractor-dramatically-quits-australian-solar-sector-33796/

https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-solar-projects-warned-of-seven-year-delays-in-victoria-nsw-36095/

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That's quite sad news.  Australia is on the front lines of suffering the consequences of climate change, yet their government truly has its head up its @ss regarding their energy policy.

Maybe if it was the PM's house that burned down, he and his cronies would get a clue....

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