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1 hour ago, Klothilde said:

Add 1 ct for southeast asia production and you are at 22 cts.
Add 2 ct for shipping and insurance
Add 4.4 ct for margin
Add 7.1 ct for 20% tariff on end-price

U.S. mono-PERC ASP after tariff step-down = 22+2+4.4+7.1=35.5 cts with 15%GM

multi would be 2-3 cts lower

bifacial at 24 cts cpw in SEA would reap around 30% GM at the above ASP.

 

Hold on, you double counted!!!

 

The CN has shipping and insurance included in Opex which is covered in  your  4.4 ct margin. That 4.4 margin is higher than the 4.0 Opex per watt they had in Q3.

 

You also used a higher cost of $0.22 than you calculated $0.21.

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1 hour ago, SCSolar said:

 

Hold on, you double counted!!!

 

The CN has shipping and insurance included in Opex which is covered in  your  4.4 ct margin. That 4.4 margin is higher than the 4.0 Opex per watt they had in Q3.

 

You also used a higher cost of $0.22 than you calculated $0.21.

No double counting but indeed a small mistake in my excel because I based the 15%GM on the ex-tariff ASP.

Hope this is clearer:
mono-PERC production cost SEA: 22.0 cts
tariff: 6.8 cts (20% of ASP)
COGS: 22+6.8 = 28.8 cts
ASP: 33.9 cts
GM: 5.1 cts (15% of ASP)

I assume production cost in SEA is 1ct above China which I put at 21 cts.

The above would be my cost structure for Q1 2020.

 

 

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We have to be careful not to overestimate China again in 2020 by listening to stakeholders who are just interested in pushing hype.  Let's rather listen to what people have to say when they're allowed to speak their honest mind.

"...The new system has been one of the major factors dampening new installations, said an analyst at a major Western research house, speaking on condition his name not be used due to company policy. He also blamed the slowdown on the winding down of a government program designed to bring solar power to China’s poorer regions, which had been contributing about one-quarter of new installations over the last few years.

He said that like the Photovoltaic Industry Association, his organization was also forecasting total installations would reach about 30 GW this year, down by about one-third from 2018. But he predicted the figure would be similar in 2020, between 28 GW and 32 GW, as the situation stabilizes..."
https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-12-06/solar-power-fades-with-end-of-state-support-but-seen-stabilizing-in-2020-101491533.html

 

 

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13 hours ago, MVA said:

Turned in my Jifan Gao fan club card and the polo shirt they sent me (no lie) long ago, so I’m with Klothilde here. I hope he’s right but don’t trust him much. 

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On 12/5/2019 at 1:01 PM, SCSolar said:

I have been trading in and out of CSIQ and JKS the past 2 weeks. I bought back in yesterday at open after selling out the day before. Still holding. I am expecting JKS and CSIQ to head back to the 20's.

Sold out today for a 13 and 11% gains.

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2 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Previous corrupt government established, intentionally, extremely high FITs, in order to build PV plants for themselves (through connected oligarchs), and to pump money into their own pockets from state coffers. Ukrainian FIT was around 10 hr/Kwh ($0.9) in 2014 and around 5 hr now, which was the highest tariff in the world.... Now, FIT adjustment is normal process to bring it down to reasonable (competitive) level... 

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Cool Finlay article on cell tech evolution, including market shares of various techs.  The chart shows how brutally mono-PERC has displaced about everything else in the silicon space.  Say goodbye to black silicon and say goodbye to quasi-mono.  And let's pray for their proponents CSIQ and GCL please.
https://www.pv-tech.org/editors-blog/pv-celltech-2020-to-explain-why-n-pert-emerging-as-differentiated-play-for

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21 hours ago, SolarRoof said:

ENPH is still a secret outside of the installer networks, which are beginning to gravitate away from industry leader SEDG's inferior products.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4313307-enphase-energy-2020-vision

Absolutely love Enphase. I am not sure many solar stock investors, who do not follow it, truly understand it's earnings growth potential over the next year and beyond. I am buying Enphase stock hand over fist on every pullback. I think it is a slam dunk if you can stomach the volatility (which there is a lot of). Best of luck!

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I will be interested to see how this upgrade to a block of panels to Bifacial panels performs. This is a test by OCI Solar before rolling out Bifacial. They are using the existing infrastructure of mounts cables land inverters etc. 

 

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/news/2019/12/23/alamo-1-solar-farm-gets-performance-upgrade.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

 

San Antonio-based OCI Solar Power recently made upgrades to its Alamo I solar farm on the city's South Side intended to improve its overall performance and reliability, according a company news release.

As part of the upgrade, OCI Solar power installed new state-of-the-art solar trackers from Albuquerque, New Mexico-based Array Technologies Inc., as well as a block of bifacial solar modules that will be used for field testing and data gathering. The bifacial solar modules enable panels to collect solar energy on two sides, increasing total energy production.

 

"The existing infrastructure of the solar farm, including the foundation, inverters and balance-of-system remained the same."

 

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http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191225/1031307.shtml

Monocrystalline wafer overcapacity will be the "lethal poison" of price

 

the price of single crystal silicon wafers has not changed significantly for 17 months. The only price change during this period occurred in April 2019. In March, the price dropped from 3.15 yuan to 3.07 yuan, and the main reason was that the value-added tax was reduced from 16% to 13%.

 

 

according to the statistics of the Photovoltaic Industry Association, China ’s wafer output in the first three quarters was 99.4GW, a year-on-year increase of 44.3%; January-October output was 113.7GW, a year-on-year increase of 46.1%. New capacity expansion is mainly based on single crystals.

 

However, it is also the explosion of monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacity that has become the "lethal poison" of its price growth-absolute excess capacity.

In 2020, the production capacity of 191GW single crystal wafers is sufficient to meet the needs of domestic and overseas markets. Longji, Central, Jinko, JA Solar ... The strong production capacity of many photovoltaic companies will inevitably cause prices to fall, so as to compete for more markets Share. Excessive production capacity, limited markets, and unlimited competition have led to the inevitable result of price loosening and falling.

A few days ago, related articles predicted that as soon as G2 in 2020, the price of single crystal silicon wafers will start to loosen, which will cause cliff-like, avalanche-like prices to fall. It is even possible that the price may be lower than 2.5 yuan.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Beautiful article explaning the Chinese market crash:
Is China’s market heading toward a cliff edge?
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/12/30/is-chinas-market-heading-toward-a-cliff-edge/

"Cliff edge" in two days will become history.... Key line from this article is this: 

Benefiting from strong overseas market demand from Europe, the Middle East, India, Latin America and Australia, major China PV manufacturers are continuing to do very good business.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Beautiful article explaning the Chinese market crash:
Is China’s market heading toward a cliff edge?
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/12/30/is-chinas-market-heading-toward-a-cliff-edge/

That is past looking, I would look to the future. As we have discussed on this board due to the policy extension of time to build we expected a significant drop in the completion rates as many projects would be pushed into 2020. That would tend to be additive to the next years totals.   If you take flat 2029 installs of 25-30GW and add the 10GW estiamtes that  fell out of projects, then you would have 35-40GW.

 

BNEF is estimating 35-45GW of demand from China next year.

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191230/1032325.shtml

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