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58 minutes ago, MVA said:

These two reflect mostly Tier 2 PV sales, as Hobo noticed... Low quality info. Everybody in the industry usually quotes Energytrend...

Hmm

 

Energy Trends Mono Poly $8.77  after VAT

PV Insights Mono Poly $8.62

 

Energy Trends High Efficiency Poly $0.215 USD

PVinsights High Efficiency Poly PErc $0.218

 

Energy Trends High Efficiency Mono $0.315 USD

PvInsights High Efficiency Mono $0.227

 

To me, they look almost identical except for how they are estimating the price of High Efficiency Mono. Clearly the low price of PVinsights is not in line with Energy Trends but he high end price ranges are.

 

I would gather PV Insights includes Tier 1 and Tier 2 in their costs and Energy Trends might only cover Tier 1 if anything. If Energy Trends is not taking into account Tier 2 pricings, then their data is skewed. That may be why the Current pricing for Mono is slightly  above JKS ASP for Q3.

 

 

Clearly 2 different sets of data points.

 

I just noticed a Superior High Efficiency Mono on Energy Trends that seems to track the PVInsights pricing for High efficiency mono. So categories of Mono discrepancies like maybe N type vs PType on Energy Trends.

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1 hour ago, MVA said:

These two reflect mostly Tier 2 PV sales, as Hobo noticed... Low quality info. Everybody in the industry usually quotes Energytrend...

Lets be clear Roth Capitol quotes PV Info link in their data analysis. I do not think that a major Analyst would use low quality data from PV InfoLink.

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/longi-green-energy-revenue-and-profits-fall-in-q3-as-asp-declines-continue

Figures from PV InfoLink reported today by ROTH Capital, indicated ASPs are down 44%, since the beginning of the year. 

 

Hobo is not an analyst and is making up his own numbers because he can not figure out how CSIQ numbers align with their data.  Basically he has no clue on their ASP and none of it matches the companies comments on ASP.

 

 His theories in the past have been both right and wrong. More wrong than right in my opinion. That is why he vanished for several years. His theories on the impacts of ASP decline and over capacity in which he claimed Tier 1's would not be impacted back in  the credit freeze was wrong. His claims that LDK was a great investment cost him and many on this board lots of red in their investments.

 

Do your own anaylsis and supply supportive data. Klothilde for as much as she is a downside analyst on Csi has data points. I think her analysis of CSIQ ASP is inline with the company and earnings.

 

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21 minutes ago, SCSolar said:

Lets be clear Roth Capitol quotes PV Info link in their data analysis. I do not think that a major Analyst would use low quality data from PV InfoLink.

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/longi-green-energy-revenue-and-profits-fall-in-q3-as-asp-declines-continue

Figures from PV InfoLink reported today by ROTH Capital, indicated ASPs are down 44%, since the beginning of the year. 

 

Hobo is not an analyst and is making up his own numbers because he can not figure out how CSIQ numbers align with their data.  Basically he has no clue on their ASP and none of it matches the companies comments on ASP.

 

 His theories in the past have been both right and wrong. More wrong than right in my opinion. That is why he vanished for several years. His theories on the impacts of ASP decline and over capacity in which he claimed Tier 1's would not be impacted back in  the credit freeze was wrong. His claims that LDK was a great investment cost him and many on this board lots of red in their investments.

 

Do your own anaylsis and supply supportive data. Klothilde for as much as she is a downside analyst on Csi has data points. I think her analysis of CSIQ ASP is inline with the company and earnings.

 

Lets see what they write tomorrow (both ET and PVIlink) and how ET justifies green numbers and PVIlink red numbers... 

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THANK YOU "INVENERGY"!!!!! 

Trade court blocks Trump move to kill solar tariff loophole

The trade court issued a preliminary injunction freezing the administration's move to eliminate the provision that exempted bifacial panels from duties.

While a boon to the industry at large, the court's ruling is a setback for companies that make panels in the U.S., including First Solar (FSLR -3.1%) and SunPower (SPWR -2.2%).

The ruling came in response to a complaint filed by Invenergy LLC which challenged the government's withdrawal of the exclusion; in its ruling, the court says it granted the injunction because "Invenergy is likely to succeed on the merits."

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3524080-trade-court-blocks-trump-move-to-kill-solar-tariff-loophole?app=1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha#email_link

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3 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Jinko wants to ship 4GW to the U.S. next year.  That would be horrible for FSLR.  And didn't Canadian also say they were eyeing the U.S.?
https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/2019-12-05-us-solar-industry-set-for-showdown-over-trumps-tariffs/

As I have stated with the low ASP and manufacturing costs, companies should be shipping as much as they can to the U.S. that has a higher ASP.. Multi can be selling for under $0.28 with the tariff and still be  highly profitable. Mono add 1 or 2 cents. Now with the stay in the bifacial market, you have high efficiency products that create problems for FSLR able to be brought in  at just pennies above their costs.

 

That is why investing in a company reliant on  protected industry has more downside risk than upside.

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I had bought FSLR looking for a 12 cent move for a quick trade, literally 3 minutes before this news broke.  Sold those and just locked in a massive loss.  I hated buying CSIQ after the big run, but added a little there, so I expect it to drop significantly now too.  One of those days!

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4 minutes ago, Mark said:

I had bought FSLR looking for a 12 cent move for a quick trade, literally 3 minutes before this news broke.  Sold those and just locked in a massive loss.  I hated buying CSIQ after the big run, but added a little there, so I expect it to drop significantly now too.  One of those days!

I have been trading in and out of CSIQ and JKS the past 2 weeks. I bought back in yesterday at open after selling out the day before. Still holding. I am expecting JKS and CSIQ to head back to the 20's.

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Is this ruling final, final?  Or can Trump jump in and just slap a tariff on it anyway by way of it being made in China or some other method?  Don't seem to be many checks and balances when it comes to tariffs, but does this ruling stick now?

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Ah, answered my own question, thanks to Bloomberg:

The exclusion for bifacial panels will now remain in place for potentially months until the issue is resolved in court.

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6 minutes ago, Mark said:

Ah, answered my own question, thanks to Bloomberg:

The exclusion for bifacial panels will now remain in place for potentially months until the issue is resolved in court.

Court hearings may last until November 2020, when M. Bloomberg becomes President. And then it won't be important anymore, because all tariffs will be abolished by newly elect first week in the office. I think this scenario is very possible.

Quote: "Invenergy is likely to succeed on the merits."

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5 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

Let's not get carried away here.

Klothilde, switch camps already. You see that CSIQ is more promising than FSLR... Why to torture yourself? Make decision. 🙂

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In light of the JKS news this morning and then the trade news, has your opinion changed Klothilde? I mean even if this ends up going FSLR's way in 2020, the tariffs will still be lower and CN will have flooded the market ahead of that decision.  Is there any positive spin you can put on this beyond they're sold out til 2021?  Not challenging you, just seeking your opinion.  

I dumped half of my shares today.  Contemplating dumping the other half too.  Bloodbath for me.

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18 minutes ago, Mark said:

Is there any positive spin you can put on this beyond they're sold out til 2021?

I am not Klothilde and I don't think there is any need for spin, but I do think bifacial has been overhyped so far. 2.6 GW of bifacial was installed in 2018 and 5.4 will be installed this year. Virtually all of that has been in China. Despite the hype there isn't a whole lot of bifacial on the market and performance data is limited. I doubt too many developers want to be guinea pigs testing out the technology.

Degradation is a very serious issue with PERC panels. There are solar farms in existence that have experienced degradation of 20% in only 2-3 years of operation. A year ago someone bought PERC modules from several vendors and found most of them had over 5% LeTID degradation in just a few weeks. Degradation with bifacial seems to be even worse.

I would imagine most developers would rather build farms that they know will be profitable than build ones that might be slightly cheaper but could force them into bankruptcy because a new technology did not turn out to work as expected.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333211247_Physics_of_potential-induced_degradation_in_bifacial_p-PERC_solar_cells

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33 minutes ago, Luz del Norte said:

I am not Klothilde and I don't think there is any need for spin, but I do think bifacial has been overhyped so far. 2.6 GW of bifacial was installed in 2018 and 5.4 will be installed this year. Virtually all of that has been in China. Despite the hype there isn't a whole lot of bifacial on the market and performance data is limited. I doubt too many developers want to be guinea pigs testing out the technology.

Degradation is a very serious issue with PERC panels. There are solar farms in existence that have experienced degradation of 20% in only 2-3 years of operation. A year ago someone bought PERC modules from several vendors and found most of them had over 5% LeTID degradation in just a few weeks. Degradation with bifacial seems to be even worse.

I would imagine most developers would rather build farms that they know will be profitable than build ones that might be slightly cheaper but could force them into bankruptcy because a new technology did not turn out to work as expected.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333211247_Physics_of_potential-induced_degradation_in_bifacial_p-PERC_solar_cells

Bifacial market to grow tenfold by 2024

https://www.woodmac.com/news/editorial/bifacial-2019/

"This will have a profound impact on the technology preference of U.S. developers, especially those in the utility-scale business. Bifacial module installations in the U.S. will experience sustained growth in the next five years, expanding from just over 500 megawatts in 2019 to over 2,000 megawatts in 2020, and rising to more than 7,000 megawatts in 2024."

This article is from September 2019. Now, take into account new cost reduction (last couple of months) in PV manufacturing and tenfold can easily be twentyfold...

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1 hour ago, MVA said:

Bifacial market to grow tenfold by 2024

The question is how will exempting bifacial panels from the Section 201 tariffs affect the US market and First Solar in particular. Considering that the tariffs were set to expire in 2022, predictions about 2024 are irrelevant.

If the US bifacial market grows from 500MW to 2GW as the article suggests in 2020, it doesn't seem like the impact will be all that great. The total world supply of bifacial next year is not that large and i am not sure companies will rush to convert production lines given how erratic the Trump administration is. The loophole didn't seem to affect First Solar all that much when it was first created in June.

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28 minutes ago, Luz del Norte said:

The question is how will exempting bifacial panels from the Section 201 tariffs affect the US market and First Solar in particular. Considering that the tariffs were set to expire in 2022, predictions about 2024 are irrelevant.

If the US bifacial market grows from 500MW to 2GW as the article suggests in 2020, it doesn't seem like the impact will be all that great. The total world supply of bifacial next year is not that large and i am not sure companies will rush to convert production lines given how erratic the Trump administration is. The loophole didn't seem to affect First Solar all that much when it was first created in June.

I don't care about FSLR... But if you do, read this:

"First Solar, the letter said, had “ongoing customer negotiations immediately disrupted” at the time the exclusion was originally requested."

https://morningconsult.com/2019/11/06/solar-firms-sought-senate-help-on-end-of-bifacial-panel-tariff-exclusion/

I, personally, never going to touch FSLR...

 

 

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1 hour ago, Luz del Norte said:

The question is how will exempting bifacial panels from the Section 201 tariffs affect the US market and First Solar in particular. Considering that the tariffs were set to expire in 2022, predictions about 2024 are irrelevant.

If the US bifacial market grows from 500MW to 2GW as the article suggests in 2020, it doesn't seem like the impact will be all that great. The total world supply of bifacial next year is not that large and i am not sure companies will rush to convert production lines given how erratic the Trump administration is. The loophole didn't seem to affect First Solar all that much when it was first created in June.

Wood Mackenzie is forecasting 21GW of Bifacial demand by 2024.That may be very light.

 

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/09/26/woodmac-bifacial-module-capacity-will-exceed-21-gw-by-2024/

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4 hours ago, MVA said:

Bifacial market to grow tenfold by 2024

https://www.woodmac.com/news/editorial/bifacial-2019/

"This will have a profound impact on the technology preference of U.S. developers, especially those in the utility-scale business. Bifacial module installations in the U.S. will experience sustained growth in the next five years, expanding from just over 500 megawatts in 2019 to over 2,000 megawatts in 2020, and rising to more than 7,000 megawatts in 2024."

This article is from September 2019. Now, take into account new cost reduction (last couple of months) in PV manufacturing and tenfold can easily be twentyfold...

Twentyfold? That would take up all Wood Mackenzie demand forecast for non residential. That would be all commercial , ground mount and utility plants.

https://www.woodmac.com/research/products/power-and-renewables/us-solar-market-insight/

 

But I get your point. Jinko is questioning Bifacial as whether it is just power generation from both sides, which could lead to just using a clear back sheeting and not bus bars. That would be a way around the 201 tariffs for all modules at virtually zero costs.

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15 hours ago, SCSolar said:

...Multi can be selling for under $0.28 with the tariff and still be  highly profitable. Mono add 1 or 2 cents...

Could you share your math?  Are you taking into account that shipments out of China are subject to the sum of three different tariffs that come up to 85%?
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/08/07/united-states-confirms-additional-25-tariffs-on-chinese-cells-modules/

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, Luz del Norte said:

If the US bifacial market grows from 500MW to 2GW as the article suggests in 2020, it doesn't seem like the impact will be all that great. The total world supply of bifacial next year is not that large and i am not sure companies will rush to convert production lines given how erratic the Trump administration is.

Also they need to setup bifacial capacity outside of China because Chinese bifacial exports are still subject to the 201 and Obama tariffs.  Don't see anybody investing a dime into a new cell line before we get more clarity on this next year.

 

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1 hour ago, Klothilde said:

Could you share your math?  Are you taking into account that shipments out of China are subject to the sum of three different tariffs that come up to 85%?
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/08/07/united-states-confirms-additional-25-tariffs-on-chinese-cells-modules/

 

 

 

2012/24 tariffs is Chinese made products - Lots of capacity was setup to skirt these tariffs.

Chinese 25% tariffs are only Chinese modules.

201 is global solar modules except bifacial

Section 201 is 25% for the next month then falls to 20%. 

 

Poly Perc Cells can be bought for $0.095. Add another $0.08 in module cost and you have a $0.175 cost.

A $0.22 ASP with a 25% tariff is $0.275 with a $0.045 profit. Add a penny if you want to the costs and you still have $0.035 which is more than enough to pay for shipping and insurance.

 

A $0.23 ASP with a 20% tariff is $0.276. That is a $0.055 profit.

Mono Perc cells are $0.02-$0.025 more.

Mono Perc Cells are $0.115-$0.123

Costs for mono wafers is around $0.065

Cell processing is around $0.04 potentially less

The cost for the added bifacial processing is a couple pennies more

With Gobal demand headed towards Bifacial it makes sense to modify capacity added to avoid the 2012/14 trariffs.

 

By the way Nrel suggested a 3 cent added cost for Bifacial modules back in 2018.

http://bifipv-workshop.com/fileadmin/images/bifi/denver/presentations/5__Woodhouse-_module_pricing_and_energy_yield_bifiPV2018.pdf

 

That was when they were suggesting costs to manufacture less Rnd and Opex was in the $0.34 vs $0.37 range. Reality check is cost are now 30% lower so that $0.03 is likely closer to $0.02.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Also they need to setup bifacial capacity outside of China because Chinese bifacial exports are still subject to the 201 and Obama tariffs.  Don't see anybody investing a dime into a new cell line before we get more clarity on this next year.

 

 "In October, BloombergNEF analyst Jenny Chase told PV Tech the expectation is the technology (bifacial) will power “almost all utility-scale plants” by the early 2020s.

From Brazil to Denmark, Armenia and Singapore, the growing list of countries now hosting bifacial schemes is taking the technology to the world’s four corners. Already by 2024, installed bifacial capacity could pass 21GW worldwide, consultancy Wood Mackenzie believes."

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/bifacial-wins-another-fighting-chance-as-judge-halts-trumps-crackdown

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2 hours ago, SCSolar said:

Poly Perc Cells can be bought for $0.095. Add another $0.08 in module cost and you have a $0.175 cost.

A $0.22 ASP with a 25% tariff is $0.275 with a $0.045 profit. Add a penny if you want to the costs and you still have $0.035 which is more than enough to pay for shipping and insurance.

A $0.23 ASP with a 20% tariff is $0.276. That is a $0.055 profit.

Mono Perc cells are $0.02-$0.025 more.

Mono Perc Cells are $0.115-$0.123

Costs for mono wafers is around $0.065

Cell processing is around $0.04 potentially less

As usual I consider your cost assumptions a little bit too agressive.  I don't see how they reconcile with the cost data we're given by the CN2.

For example you derived a blended cpw for JKS in Q4 of 22-22.5 cts/W:
https://solarpvinvestor.com/topic/21-jinkosolar-jks/page/104/?tab=comments#comment-100656

That to me points to a China cost of around 21 cts with almost all of it being mono-PERC.  I figure they produce mono wafers for 6.5, convert to cells for 5.5 and convert to modules for 9.  Alternatively they buy mono-PERC cells for 12 cts and convert for 9 cts.

Add 1 ct for southeast asia production and you are at 22 cts.
Add 2 ct for shipping and insurance
Add 4.4 ct for margin
Add 7.1 ct for 20% tariff on end-price

U.S. mono-PERC ASP after tariff step-down = 22+2+4.4+7.1=35.5 cts with 15%GM

multi would be 2-3 cts lower

bifacial at 24 cts cpw in SEA would reap around 30% GM at the above ASP.

P.D. I think the 201 tariff is slapped ad valorem on the end-price and not how you suggest:
https://news.energysage.com/2018-us-solar-tariff-impact-prices/


 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Klothilde said:

As usual I consider your cost assumptions a little bit too agressive. 

For example you derived a blended cpw for JKS in Q4 of 22-22.5 cts/W:
https://solarpvinvestor.com/topic/21-jinkosolar-jks/page/104/?tab=comments#comment-100656

That to me points to a China cost of around 21 cts with almost all of it being mono-

Yes as usual  I consider your future cost assumptions a little high.

If your quoting me, lets be clear, the quote you cited was for Q4 2019 and not 2020. It is also a blended cost that includes hundreds of MW of OEM panels that are lower margins and higher costs. That blended cost also  uses higher ASP  for upstream components.

 

Now to fully quote me, you can go down further in that same thread in which I state

"

2020 Internal production 16GW(4GW per Q avg)

A continued decline of 15% through the year places an ASP

Avg ASP = $0.2745*0.85=$0.233

Internal Cost low = $0.233*.75 = $0.175

Internal High Cost = $0.233*.1866"

 

My thread in which I suggest good profits at under a $0.28 ASP is consistent with my costs I have been suggesting for the future.

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