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11 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

I think it is new because everybody was counting on subsidies for new bidding projects in 2020 and apparently those are not included anymore.

As to the 40GW suggested by Jinko I understand from their comments that those refer to the new projects in 2020 and exclude the delayed projects from 2019:

Maheep Mandloi

Got it. I had a quick follow-up on the 40 gigawatt China demand on 2020. Does that include the 2019 projects being delayed into the first half of next year, or …?

Charlie Cao

It's brand new -- its brand new in the 2020 projects.

Sorry, typo... I meant what CSIQ had explained....:

Huifeng Chang, Canadian Solar Inc. - Senior VP & CFO [25]

Actually, the reason for China low number of installations this year is partially also because aside from being rationalized is the late announcement of the project permits, that did not give you enough time to secure the land and the other financing. So that's part of the reason why it gets pushed forward into next year. So therefore, next year, I was given like as low as 30, 35 gigawatts next year, but with the push forward delayed project into next year, we anticipate China can be on a higher side comparing to the 35 gigawatts, but can go up to 40 gigawatts next year because over time, people will -- people needs more time, and that will need the time to readjust their position to get into the new policy. And in terms of the policy, clarification, it's a moving target. But I don't think it will have a impact on the existing programs of the grid parity and also the subsidy -- subsidized market because the subsidy is going down already. It's one down this year already.

Like, I said - new policy is not a HOT news...

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Any news on the bifacial ruling you guys?  I think today was the deadline for some kind of decision if I'm not mistaken.  This guy from the White House thinks that the loophole must me "slammed shut" because China is exploiting it:
https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/white-house-adviser-blasts-china-for-exploiting-solar-loophole?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=truncated_content&utm_content=pmn_pmn-business&utm_term=bloomberg_news

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1 hour ago, Klothilde said:

Any news on the bifacial ruling you guys?  I think today was the deadline for some kind of decision if I'm not mistaken.  This guy from the White House thinks that the loophole must me "slammed shut" because China is exploiting it:
https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/white-house-adviser-blasts-china-for-exploiting-solar-loophole?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=truncated_content&utm_content=pmn_pmn-business&utm_term=bloomberg_news

Bifacial is only one concern for FSLR. Right now with global ASP at $0.23 and marked up to say $0.25-$0.26 for shipping, you have a tariff cost of ~$0.30 or more than  10% below FSLR long term contracts.  10% is starting to be significant. If you go high efficiency Perc, you can lower than ASP to $0.27 which is significantly lower.

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I think it's not quite that straightforward.  Exports out of China into the U.S. are subject not only to the 201 tariffs but also to the 301 and the Obama CVD/AD tariffs, so that makes them prohibitive.  Exports from SE Asia are subject only to the 201 tariffs but production costs are higher and capacities are limited.

I don't know the exact details cuz I get lost in the tariff jungle easily so please correct me if my understanding is wrong.

I do expect an ASP drop early next year with the 201 step down and with the latest module price drop, however I don't think prices won't go as low as suggested by you.

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4 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

I think it's not quite that straightforward.  Exports out of China into the U.S. are subject not only to the 201 tariffs but also to the 301 and the Obama CVD/AD tariffs, so that makes them prohibitive.  Exports from SE Asia are subject only to the 201 tariffs but production costs are higher and capacities are limited.

I do expect an ASP drop early next year with the 201 step down and with the latest module price drop, however I don't think it will be as low as suggested by you.

See, your bias is obvious: When we talk about CSIQ/JKS, you claim: ASPs are falling, bancrupcies are looming, sky is falling... When it comes to your 100% investment (FSLR), you say: "however I don't think it will be as low as suggested by you."... :-))))))))))))))))))

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1 hour ago, Klothilde said:

Any news on the bifacial ruling you guys?  I think today was the deadline for some kind of decision if I'm not mistaken.  This guy from the White House thinks that the loophole must me "slammed shut" because China is exploiting it:
https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/white-house-adviser-blasts-china-for-exploiting-solar-loophole?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=truncated_content&utm_content=pmn_pmn-business&utm_term=bloomberg_news

I have not heard any news on the ruling, the hold was placed until a decision by the judge could ruled on. It was indicated that it could be later than the 21rst and there could be extensions for the hold on implementation.

 

In the meantime, it looks like some powerful Senate Republicans have inserted language to remove the 201 tariffs on Bifacial in the 2020 budget.

 

https://morningconsult.com/2019/11/06/solar-firms-sought-senate-help-on-end-of-bifacial-panel-tariff-exclusion/

"On the other side, a few senators are seeking to block implementation of the tariff for bifacial modules by law. On Oct. 29, Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) accompanied by Sens. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), submitted an amendment to the Senate’s manager’s amendment to a House package of spending bills to bring about that effect. The Senate agreed to the manager’s amendment by unanimous consent on Oct. 31. Lawmakers have not yet solidified fiscal 2020 spending. "

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3 minutes ago, Mark said:

Yes Duke has been a double edged sword. They have pushed to limit what they must pay for solar as well as how long they must pay it for. There was an article a year ago that Duke was only willing to sign 5 year power agreements with these third party suppliers. They had seen how prices drop in solar and did not want to get caught like Austin power had  with high PPA that hurt the bottom line. These 5 year PPA was hurting builders for the same reasons indicating they had difficulty getting loans since they needed more guaranteed revenue. A compromise was reached in May of this year  being 10 year contracts and state approvals required to be gotten for over 10  year purchase agreements.

 

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/south-carolina-compromises-on-purpa-contracts-eliciting-duke-support-for-p/553895/

 

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3 hours ago, MVA said:

See, your bias is obvious: When we talk about CSIQ/JKS, you claim: ASPs are falling, bancrupcies are looming, sky is falling... When it comes to your 100% investment (FSLR), you say: "however I don't think it will be as low as suggested by you."... :-))))))))))))))))))

Well mono-PERC has been selling for around 40 cts/W in the U.S. for quite a while now.  That is consistent with an ex-tariff ASP of 27 cts/W for SE Asia production + 3 cts/W for shipping to the U.S.  27 cts in SE Asia is 1 ct higher than the 26 cts price for mono-PERC we saw in Q3 of this year.  Now in Q4 mono-PERC prices came down 2 cts, that puts the SE Asia mono-PERC module at an ASP of 25 cts.  With 3 cts shipping and a stepped-down tariff of 20% you end up at around 35 cts.  That's significantly above the ASP suggested by SCSolar.

I don't understand the need for drama and accusations.  Aren't we here to discuss facts and opinions, also the ones that are hard to swallow?  If we want to be successful in trading and investing we need to be faster than others in smelling the rats out there.  And boy are there some nasty rats out there.  The moment you stop being candid and start sugarcoating everything with wishful thinking you have lost instantly.

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36 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

Well mono-PERC has been selling for around 40 cts/W in the U.S. for quite a while now.  That is consistent with an ex-tariff ASP of 27 cts/W for SE Asia production + 3 cts/W for shipping to the U.S.  27 cts in SE Asia is 1 ct higher than the 26 cts price for mono-PERC we saw in Q3 of this year.  Now in Q4 mono-PERC prices came down 2 cts, that puts the SE Asia mono-PERC module at an ASP of 25 cts.  With 3 cts shipping and a stepped-down tariff of 20% you end up at around 35 cts.  That's significantly above the ASP suggested by SCSolar.

I don't understand the need for drama and accusations.  Aren't we here to discuss facts and opinions, also the ones that are hard to swallow?  If we want to be successful in trading and investing we need to be faster than others in smelling the rats out there.  And boy are there some nasty rats out there.  The moment you stop being candid and start sugarcoating everything with wishful thinking you have lost instantly.

I think you need to rerun your shipping costs. It is far lower the 3 cents a watt.

 

A 40 ft container  will hold 594  Jinko Eagle 72 cell modules That is  231,660Watts.

https://jinkosolar.com/ftp/EaglePerc G2 JKM380-400M-72L-V-A2-US.pdf

 

A shipping container from Shanghai to LAX can be shipped for Under $1,000.

https://www.icontainers.com/ship-container/united-states/

 

That is less than 1/2 a cent per watt for the Ocean Freight.

The costs can be under  $0.02/watt when you take it at ground.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Klothilde said:

And boy are there some nasty rats out there.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with looking for concerns.  Indeed, that's why we're all here.  But at some point, track record starts to matter.  When you smell the same rat for quarter after quarter, all while the companies in question continue to execute, don't be surprised when people start to question your sense of smell.

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1 hour ago, SCSolar said:

I think you need to rerun your shipping costs. It is far lower the 3 cents a watt.

 

A 40 ft container  will hold 594  Jinko Eagle 72 cell modules That is  231,660Watts.

https://jinkosolar.com/ftp/EaglePerc G2 JKM380-400M-72L-V-A2-US.pdf

 

A shipping container from Shanghai to LAX can be shipped for Under $1,000.

https://www.icontainers.com/ship-container/united-states/

 

That is less than 1/2 a cent per watt for the Ocean Freight.

The costs can be under  $0.02/watt when you take it at ground.

Thanks, call it 3 cts mark-up including shipping.

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On 11/21/2019 at 5:00 PM, Klothilde said:

Thanks, call it 3 cts mark-up including shipping.

Nice Solar company fighting off unions by firing their entire workforce that was trying to unionize.

 

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/1901492

 

"Workers decided to unionize following a couple work accidents and pressure from management to work outside in extreme weather conditions in the winter," according to Motherboard. "When workers announced their intention to unionize, Bright Power hired Littler Mendelson—the world's largest labor law firm representing management with ties to the Trump administration—to handle its union negotiations."

On Monday, in the middle of negotiations for the first union contract, Bright Power announced its decision to fire the 12 workers—who made up the company's entire in-house construction crew—and replace them with subcontractors.

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Massive capacity oversupply in China threatening a ASP collapse in early 2020. As if the price collapse this year was not bad enough. Remember a few years ago Multi capacity was over 100GW. 

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191125/1023220.shtml

1. 2020 global component demand is expected to be 140GW
2. The total capacity of domestic components exceeds 200GW in 2020
 

 

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Horrible ET and PVIL write-ups again this week.  Especially multi is sinking like the titanic.  I don't know what GCL will do you guys.  Now you guys be careful, especially those of you who still believe in 20% margins.
https://www.energytrend.com/pricequotes/20191128-15780.html
https://en.pvinfolink.com/post-view.php?ID=267

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1 hour ago, SCSolar said:

Interesting research report for 2020. 

The key takeaways

1: The ability of the supply chain to take out 10%+ in the cost of modules

2: Demand outside of China 100-110GW

3: Demand in China should exceed 40GW

4: 175GW of Mono wafer capacity by end of 2020

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191202/1025031.shtml

Quite dramatic change of mood within the last 10 days... 

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Enphase Energy initiated with a Buy at Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Lee initiated coverage of Enphase Energy with a Buy rating and $31 price target. The company's battery opportunity appears to be underappreciated as the current valuation is justified by just solar alone, Lee tells investors in a research note. Further, in a "blue-sky scenario," higher attach rates on batteries could drive a further 40% upside to 2022 earnings views, adds the analyst. This highlights a potential path for the stock to reach $40-$45 per share, he contends.

Read more at:
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3001030

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The only thing I'm sure of is that nobody in here or in analyst world or maybe even in the companies themselves has any clue what 2020 looks like.  And we're looking at 2022 now.  We're all gambling.

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CLF purchased AKS today... Perfect example when (1 company + 1 company) = 0.5 company ... :-)))))))))))))) 

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3 hours ago, MVA said:

CLF purchased AKS today... Perfect example when (1 company + 1 company) = 0.5 company ... :-)))))))))))))) 

Sold my JKS yesterday, bought in today at 2 cents off the low and sold it for a 2.75% gain a few hours later.

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On 12/2/2019 at 12:05 PM, SCSolar said:

4: 175GW of Mono wafer capacity by end of 2020

Spells horrendous overcapacity.  Currently mono wafers are about the only thing reaping a profit in the PV universe but it looks like margins will disappear here as well once the glut evolves.  Just as it happened with mono-PERC cells.  Horrible for JKS who bet the farm on in-house wafering.

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3 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Spells horrendous overcapacity.  Currently mono wafers are about the only thing reaping a profit in the PV universe but it looks like margins will disappear here as well once the glut evolves.  Just as it happened with mono-PERC cells.  Horrible for JKS who bet the farm on in-house wafering.

Prices for PV modules in the green this week! Obviously Q4 rebound is on the way.

https://www.energytrend.com/solar-price.html

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