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3 hours ago, Mark said:

So all the world's modules will one day be made by Longi... 

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/11/01/another-5-gw-of-module-capacity-for-the-longi-juggernaut/

 

Or they will repeat the fate of Yingli solar.... who once wanted to become single PV module producer on this planet... 

The following piece - is what interesting the most in this article, especially on the eve of Q3 ER by CSIQ & JKS (junk, rubbish & trash companies, as they are called here by some participants):

The inevitable burden on the balance sheet was already being balanced by record sales figures in the last quarter (Q3), with RMB22.6 billion in the last three-month period – a year-on-year increase of 54.68%. With net cashflow up 278%, net profits more than doubled to RMB3.48 billion in the July-to-September window.

Edited by MVA

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A renewable energy analysis published this past week by UBS predicted "rapid, radical change," saying solar and wind power could make up 47% of the world's power capacity by 2030, up from 20%, and Barron's Jack Hough suggested this shift could make investors a good deal of profit. He recommended solar-equipment companies such as First Solar (FSLR), battery makers LG Chem and Samsung SDI, lithium supplier Albemarle (ALB), and utilities that already utilize wind and solar, such as NextEra Energy (NEE).

https://www.barrons.com/articles/5-stocks-that-should-gain-from-the-falling-cost-of-renewable-energy-51572649222

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Bye bye, PEGI... 

Pattern Energy Group Inc. (PEGI) said it would be acquired by the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board in an all-cash deal for $26.75 per share.

The deal implies enterprise value of about $6.1 billion, including net debt, the company said.

Pattern Energy shareholders will receive $26.75 per share in cash, which the company said is a 14.8% premium to Pattern's closing price on Aug. 9, the last trading day before market speculation on a deal. Pattern's U.S. shares closed Friday at $27.80, while Toronto-listed shares closed at C$36.65.

U.S shares were down 3.4%, to $26.85, premarket.

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On 11/1/2019 at 12:33 AM, SCSolar said:

Module manufacturers have been basically making little profit since 2009. That is because they are using traditional Chinese supply  side economics. The theory is as you lower prices you create more demand. They way you lower prices is by increasing mass of scale and innovate...

I've been thinking about this.

I wonder whether this supply side economics approach China has been implementing in the PV space is still feasible today.

Imo in the past (i.e. over the last 10 years) it worked because no matter how much supply got expanded it was always possible to create the matching demand in the market simply by lowering prices.  These elastic demand "sinks" were in the form of FIT-regimes where falling prices made project returns and demand go through the roof instantaneously (Germany, Spain, Italy, Japan, China a.o.).  In parallel there was still abundant margin along the manufacturing chain, mostly at the polysilicon / wafer step, to accomodate the necessary sudden module price reductions.  Margins simply got spread out along the chain so that companies along all steps could keep on operating.  GMs got squeezed initially and recuperated later somehow through cost reduction.

Seems to me those dynamics are largely broken now and I wonder if the Chinese have realized it.  Or maybe it's me who got it wrong.

I don't see the markets where demand could explode in the short term so that the excess capacity we have nowadays could be soaked up.  FIT regimes have largely been replaced with quota / bidding regimes, where demand does not increase instantaneously with lower prices.  Also the unsubsidized markets are still a magnitude too small to absorb the extra supply.  I see some elasticity in the U.S., but is this enough?

On the other hand prices along the manufacturing chain are already at rock bottom and there is little margin left to play around with additional price cuts.

Looks to me like this time around the oversupply will be resolved more through consolidation and supply reduction rather than through elastic demand increase.  And that should result in way more pain than during the previous down cycles.

Does this makes sense or am I talking crap here?

 

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This is horrible.  Australian grid getting saturated with solar, sending spot prices into negative territory during noon hours.  It happened in Chile, where it killed the market, and now it's happening here.  Bye Bye Australia, see you again when storage becomes competitive.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/this-solar-farm-has-to-switch-off-every-second-day-due-to-negative-prices-63529/

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6 hours ago, MVA said:

If he wins = solar boom in USA is guaranteed!

Mike Bloomberg is preparing to enter the Democratic presidential primary

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/07/mike-bloomberg-prepares-to-enter-at-least-one-democratic-primary-report.html 

I like him and I like Biden but I don't like Pocahontas, she is kinda stiff.

Bloomberg would be fantastic, he is dead serious about fighting climate change and would put the U.S. back in the driver's seat globally. Means he would get rid of U.S. solar tariffs ASAP.  Means FSLR would have max. 6 quarters to get S6 ready to compete without tariffs.

 

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4 hours ago, Klothilde said:

I like him and I like Biden but I don't like Pocahontas, she is kinda stiff.

Bloomberg would be fantastic, he is dead serious about fighting climate change and would put the U.S. back in the driver's seat globally. Means he would get rid of U.S. solar tariffs ASAP.  Means FSLR would have max. 6 quarters to get S6 ready to compete without tariffs.

 

I  will vote Bloomberg if he enters. I was disappointed Bloomberg did not enter. I  lean Warren/Bernie in that order as of now.  I would have voted Biden 4 years ago if he ran but not today. Warren is smart, she has taken on the banking system before, she lead the charge for the 99% when the Banking system  run amok destroyed the economy and almost wiped out solar companies. She would be excellent for solar as clean energy and clean environment is a recognized economic driver by her and her policies. I am all for the Wealth tax and rolling back all the Reagan Bush and Trump tax giveaways that has saddled this country with massive debts and put that money into the pockets of the 1%.

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Lazard report confirms LCOE of solar and wind below Coal and Nuclear as well as Solar with 4 hours storage is cheaper than peaker gas plants.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-and-solar-kill-coal-and-nuclear-on-costs-says-latest-lazard-report-52635/

It analyses a range of different scenarios and uses for battery storage, both in wholesale markets and behind the meter. For large-scale solar and lithium-ion batteries, it puts the cost of solar plus four-hour storage at $US102-$139/MWh ($A147-$A200/MWh).

The significance of this is that it beats the cost of peaking gas – $US150-$US199/MWh ($A217/MWh-$A288/MWh) and explains why so many utilities in the US, for instance, are using this combination rather than peaking gas plants.

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5 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Good Gracious Perovskites becoming reality in China and at an initial cost of only 14 cts per Watt.  SELL SELL SELL!
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191108/1019362.shtml

Good gracious Perovskites solar cells at $0.10 when ramped to 1GW. 

"When the production capacity is expanded to more than 1 GW, the manufacturing cost of the perovskite component will further drop to about 0.7 yuan per watt."

 

And GCL is tageting 1GW in 2021-2022 with 18%+ efficiency by the end of 2019. Ce La vie Series 6. Death by  a 1,000 innovations,

 

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/10/03/gcl-wants-a-1-gw-perovskite-cell-production-line-in-place-by-2022/

"With an experimental, 10 MW perovskite production line already in operation, GCL intends to ramp up to 100 MW next year and 1 GW in 2021-22, in time to supply what he believes will be a gigawatt scale global market in three years’ time."

 

 

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6 hours ago, SCSolar said:

And GCL is tageting 1GW in 2021-2022 with 18%+ efficiency by the end of 2019. Ce La vie Series 6. Death by  a 1,000 innovations.

Interestingly, there was a story a couple days ago about how First Solar and the NREL are collaborating with the University of Toledo to develop thin-film perovskite modules.

http://media.utoledo.edu/2019/11/06/u-s-department-of-energy-invests-5-7-million-into-utoledo-solar-technology-research/

First Solar knows thin-film so if perovskite emerges as a viable solution the company should be well positioned. The death of Series 6 will likely be greatly exaggerated as the technology has probably already been built into the assembly lines.

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17 minutes ago, Luz del Norte said:

Interestingly, there was a story a couple days ago about how First Solar and the NREL are collaborating with the University of Toledo to develop thin-film perovskite modules.

http://media.utoledo.edu/2019/11/06/u-s-department-of-energy-invests-5-7-million-into-utoledo-solar-technology-research/

First Solar knows thin-film so if perovskite emerges as a viable solution the company should be well positioned. The death of Series 6 will likely be greatly exaggerated as the technology has probably already been built into the assembly lines.

Thanks for posting this, we'd never hear a peep from the company given their lousy communication skills.  Do they consider this fluff that they don't talk about such research?  Sure, I guess nothing may come of it and they don't want egg on their face, but sometimes I think FSLR doesn't actually want investors.  This is the kind of stuff I want to hear about.

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12 minutes ago, Mark said:

Thanks for posting this, we'd never hear a peep from the company given their lousy communication skills.  Do they consider this fluff that they don't talk about such research?  Sure, I guess nothing may come of it and they don't want egg on their face, but sometimes I think FSLR doesn't actually want investors.  This is the kind of stuff I want to hear about.

I found this quote from the con call interesting a the time. It was from Widmar.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4298952-first-solar-inc-fslr-ceo-mark-widmar-q3-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

 

"

So we have many levers still to go around Series 6, but I'm not pulling to rest without thinking through.

The team is doing a great job to think about use the word Series 7, whatever you want to call the next evolution of the technology where that's on top of mind for us. And we have -- one of the nice things that we have always had is we've had our advanced research team in California, that's always been out in front of the game and looking at other potential technologies and capabilities, and we've made investments over the years and early investments in 6 and made investments with monocrystalline and anti to understand that technology. We've made investments to study prospects.

So we're in front of the game, and we're always looking at what can we do to take our technology to the next level. We are looking at the next-generation technology; we have to.

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38 minutes ago, Mark said:

Thanks for posting this, we'd never hear a peep from the company given their lousy communication skills.

I recommend setting up a google news search and checking it once in a while. Some interesting things occasionally show up. There was an article from a couple days ago pushing for contracting based on capacity rather than MWh. Not sure what it means but it seems interesting.

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/11/04/first-solar-advises-contracting-for-solar-capacity-not-mwh-to-enable-flexible-operation/

Here is a link to some of the current research being funded. Looks like First Solar is again working with Colorado State, this time to possibly bring PERC and bifacial to CdTe.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/seto-fy2019-photovoltaics

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1 minute ago, Luz del Norte said:

I recommend setting up a google news search and checking it once in a while. Some interesting things occasionally show up. There was an article from a couple days ago pushing for contracting based on capacity rather than MWh. Not sure what it means but it seems interesting.

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/11/04/first-solar-advises-contracting-for-solar-capacity-not-mwh-to-enable-flexible-operation/

Here is a link to some of the current research being funded. Looks like First Solar is again working with Colorado State, this time to possibly bring PERC and bifacial to CdTe.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/seto-fy2019-photovoltaics

They need to hurry the F up.  :)  Thanks.

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First took a $5M impairment on a perovskite investment in Q1. Spin it as you like, at least that shows they are looking in depth into the technology: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fool.com/amp/earnings/call-transcripts/2019/05/03/first-solar-inc-fslr-q1-2019-earnings-call-transcr.aspx

Please leave me alone with GCL. They never got FBR to work which proves they're dumb. Also they are making horrendous losses and don't have the money for perovskites. They were FUBAR when multi wafers were selling for 6 cts and now they are selling for 5 cts so go figure...

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only 1.5GW installed in China in October. They are at 17.5GW for the year.

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191112/1019995.shtml

According to the latest data released by the National Energy Administration, as of the end of the third quarter, the country's new installed capacity was only 15.99GW. It is understood that the newly installed capacity in October is about 1.5GW, of which the household use is nearly 1GW. Judging from the current market situation, the newly installed capacity is less than 30GW.

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WOW talk about planned overcapacity. I count 150GW of Mono from 3 players alone in the article and none are named GCL. Jinko is approved for a total of 35GW of Mono. And that does not count the ROW capacity or other say poly capacity.

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191112/1020013.shtml

In April this year, Jingke and Leshan Municipal Government signed a single-crystal pulling rod and cutting project with a total investment of 15 billion yuan and a planned total production capacity of 25GW. In June, the first phase of 5GW was put into production; on November 8, the second phase of 5GW was put into production. After all five phases are put into production, Jinke's total capacity of monocrystalline silicon wafers will reach 35GW.

 

 

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