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Terrific analysis of CN's module exports in H1:
https://en.pvinfolink.com/post-view.php?ID=239

Bifacial exports still insignificant overall and bifacial exports to the U.S. basically inexisting (probably due to non-201 tariffs).  Suggests practically all shipments into the U.S. must be coming from non-Chinese locations and we ought to understand non-Chinese bifacial capacities to assess the risk for FSLR.  Means before saying FSLR is doomed we oughta know how much bifacial capacity is out there outside of China and how fast can new one be put in place.  Any help appreciated.

 

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Yes right now Bifacial capacity global is low right now and the target capacity has been primarily consumed in the China market as the Top runner projects. That is going to change going forward as capacity ramps. It is expected that Bifacial modules will jump in the US from 500MW in 2019 to 2GW+ in 2020 and be at 7GW by 2024 for the U.S. My guess is more capacity will be ramped  more quickly for the US markets.  

 

http://taiyangnews.info/business/5-42-gw-bifacial-solar-module-capacity-by-2019/

 

It is the US where significant growth can be expected for obvious reasons – the government exempted bifacial solar modules from paying tariffs under Section 201 and major beneficiaries of this will be companies producing the technology in Southeast Asian countries since they don’t incur any import tariffs (see No Tariffs On Bifacial Solar Panels, Says US). A Wood Mackenzie and SEIA report on the US solar market claims the contracted utility scale solar pipeline of the country has ballooned to 37.9 GW and bifacial technology is likely to grow from 500 MW in 2019 to over 2 GW in 2020. In 2024, it will grow to more than 7 GW.

 

As for manufacturers of Bifacial- here is a list with countries of origin

https://www.enfsolar.com/directory/panel/bifacial

 

As for FSLR, bifacial modules of 2G + 2.5GW of expempt modules + Sunpower production of 3GW + US production facilities of 4GW importing cheap cells at $0.13 with tariffs creates a 11.5GW capacity in the U.S. that will be lower cost that todays support $0.37-$0.42. But that is the U.S. protected markets, FSLR other exposure is golbal market price pressures where there is not tariffs and the ASP is sitting in the $0.20-$0.25 for Poly and Mono. Those numbers are lower that current FSLR production costs.

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19 minutes ago, SCSolar said:

...As for FSLR, bifacial modules of 2G + 2.5GW of expempt modules + Sunpower production of 3GW + US production facilities of 4GW importing cheap cells at $0.13 with tariffs creates a 11.5GW capacity in the U.S. that will be lower cost that todays support $0.37-$0.42. But that is the U.S. protected markets, FSLR other exposure is golbal market price pressures where there is not tariffs and the ASP is sitting in the $0.20-$0.25 for Poly and Mono. Those numbers are lower that current FSLR production costs.

I think the 2.5GW exemption applies to cells, so it looks like you have a double counting above with the 4GW of local capacity:
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/01/23/trump-levies-graduated-tariffs-starting-at-30-exempts-2-5-gw-in-cells/

Let me know if you have some hard data on FSLR's current production cost as my derived cost level from their financial guidance is 21 cts in Q4.  It would be horrible if I made a mistake here since cost is key.

Going back to bifacial the GTM article has a key point I agree with:
"...policy uncertainty surrounding the longevity of the U.S. section 201 tariff exemption also presents a challenge to manufacturers’ capacity planning and could limit the market size of bifacial solar in the United States."
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/bifacial-solar-market-set-to-grow-tenfold-by-2024#gs.7g7evg

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So much for Bifacial solar modules getting exemptions. That exemption has been revoked.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-yanks-exemption-solar-relying-212607327.html

 

The U.S. Trade Representative said Friday it was eliminating a loophole granted about four months ago for bifacial solar panels, which generate electricity on both sides. They’ll now be subject to the duties Trump announced on imported equipment in early 2018, currently at 25%. The change takes effect Oct. 28.

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Crazy.  I would be SO pissed if I were Qu or Li.  I'd probably take a month long break in an Indian ashram or a Tibetan monastery.  

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6 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Crazy.  I would be SO pissed if I were Qu or Li.  I'd probably take a month long break in an Indian ashram or a Tibetan monastery.  

I think Qu could expect this loophole to be open just temporarily, because domestic producers (SPWR in particular) opposed "201 exclusion" from the start.

On May 29/2019 (2 weeks before section 201 exclusion) Canadian solar has signed 3-year module supply agreement with EDF Renewables North America to deliver 1,800 MW of high efficiency poly solar modules (bifacial enhanced wafer BiHiKu (CS3W-PB) and enhanced wafer HiKu (CS3W-P) modules) for projects in the US, Canada, and Mexico. Then on June 13/2019 Bifacial solar modules have been excluded from Section 201 tariffs per a ruling by the office of the United States Trade Representative. Which means that Qu signed agreement including into his cost 201 tariff. But then, having this window of opportunity (June 13 - October 28/2019), I think they pumped bifacials into US warehouses, just enough, to serve this contract (1800 MW) and Recurrent projects in the US, tariff free. So, I don't think he is pissed. May be just a little... 😉

Edited by MVA

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Well I was thinking more of all the money that went into ramping up bifacial shipments to the U.S., including setting up or adjusting manufacturing lines in southeast Asia, doing the R&D, expanding the sales force, etc.  All down the gutter because one clown changed his mind on regulations.  Would drive me cuckoo.

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2 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Well I was thinking more of all the money that went into ramping up bifacial shipments to the U.S., including setting up or adjusting manufacturing lines in southeast Asia, doing the R&D, expanding the sales force, etc.  All down the gutter because one clown changed his mind on regulations.  Would drive me cuckoo.

There are other markets for bifacial too...

Edited by MVA

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This removes the only relevant market threat for FSLR in the short/mid-term which was a flood of bifacial modules in the U.S. dropping ASPs to global levels.  Fasten your seatbelts you guys cuz the countdown is ON !!! 🚀

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4 hours ago, Klothilde said:

WTF why is First down?  Should be +20% at least.

Take your pick of reasons...

- FSLR still at technological and pricing disadvantage in 2021/22 (sooner?)

- The market never makes any sense and loves to hate solar

- Bifacial hasn't even ramped yet, but when it goes, tariffs won't matter because it'll be a more obvious choice

- FSLR can't ramp up capacity quickly.  They're sold out.  They don't see real benefit and have to hope for safe harbor.

- China oversupply

I've traded in and out of FSLR 3 times today already.  I do think it'll reverse, so bout to buy and hold for a bit longer than 45 seconds.

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Are there any installers or knowledgeable people in here when it comes to array performance?  We have 2 arrays on our house, all get the same amount of unblocked sun, but one panel in the array is producing a fair amount less than the others.  28 panels, all in what seems like a reasonable range, but one is a sore thumb.  Our installer told me one thing, but I kinda wanted a second opinion just to be sure I wasn't getting dusted off.  If you may have some insights, private message me and I'll give you some production numbers.

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Try this one on for size you guys:

"...we currently expect 32.9GW of new installed capacity this year, of which 14.4GW is expected to be installed in the fourth quarter, but if the market demand is still in the next one to two weeks, then this figure may still be Need to be lowered..."

"...it seems that the market demand is far worse than expected..."

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191014/1012738.shtml

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I think this is part of what has been pressuring shares over the last hours:
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191017/1013731.shtml

1) There is gossip that China plans to wind down subsidies for PV in 2020 and transition fully to non-subsidized solar in 2021

2) China officially hit this year's target of residential installations in September, which triggered the deadline of October 31 for remaining residential systems to be grid-connected in order to receive subsidies.

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Good!!  The time has actually come to take this step.  They need to do it carefully and not crash the entire industry--but I think their central government is smart enough to know that.  Once this industry is competitive everywhere free of subsidies, demand should once again explode.

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3 minutes ago, solarpete said:

Good!!  The time has actually come to take this step.  They need to do it carefully and not crash the entire industry--but I think their central government is smart enough to know that.  Once this industry is competitive everywhere free of subsidies, demand should once again explode.

Agreed.  Let's rip the bandaid off and see what happens.  Let the lower tiers sink, let the Tier 1s keep stable pricing.  We've been waiting a while for this and while we may not be there just quite yet, its close enough to at least take off the training wheels while the rest of the world is picking up some of the slack.

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I don't know you guys, you really think China is ready for grid parody?  Cause when I look at India there's hardly anything going on there without subsidies.  And I figure, double the sun, half the cost of solar.  You know what I'm mean?

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2 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

I don't know you guys, you really think China is ready for grid parody?  Cause when I look at India there's hardly anything going on there without subsidies.  And I figure, double the sun, half the cost of solar.  You know what I'm mean?

Off the topic.  Do you sleep Klothilde?  Seems like you post all hours of the day or night.  It's like 4:30am where you are eh? Kinda making me wonder if you really are who you say you are.  Maybe you owe us a selfie with a sign that says "Hi Solar Investors, its 4:15am here in New Zealand"... maybe a kangaroo or wallaby or something in the background.  

 

 

(Inaccurate wildlife reference placed for comedic value, I know that's AUS)

😉

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8 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

I don't know you guys, you really think China is ready for grid parody? 

It is according to the article I posted earlier.  (Which refers to grid "parity," which we all hope won't turn out to be a "parody.")

The bigger problem has been grid connectivity.  The sun is cheap out on the western steppes and deserts of China.  The huge population centers are in the east.  You gotta get the electricity across thousands of kilometers to bring the supply to the demand.  That's why China is building these huge new DC long-distance transmission lines.  Otherwise you end up idling your commercial solar facilities in the west.

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So they are axing subsidies cuz they ain't got the money but at the same time are building transmission lines to get PV power from the desert to the east coast?  Common sense dictates there's something odd about that.  Just sayn.

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4 hours ago, Klothilde said:

So they are axing subsidies cuz they ain't got the money but at the same time are building transmission lines to get PV power from the desert to the east coast?  Common sense dictates there's something odd about that.  Just sayn.

PV Wind and Coal power from the west.

 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/the-smarter-grid/chinas-ambitious-plan-to-build-the-worlds-biggest-supergrid

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Who says they're axing subsidies because they "ain't got the money?"  It's a centrally run economy--they have money to do whatever they want.  I think they're eliminating the subsidies because they want the industry to finally stand on its own two feet.  While the technology was still being developed, governmental support was necessary.  The technology, including the cost of production, has now advanced to the point such support is no longer necessary, but the industry is used to it and reluctant to give it up.  The transmission lines are necessary, plain and simple, to make use of their solar resources.  And they want to switch to solar because of the air pollution from coal.

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