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Two articles trashing the Chinese PV market:

Has the domestic PV market been reduced to "chicken ribs"?
http://m.solarzoom.com/article-130302-1.html

China solar installations to slow as subsidy cuts bite: executive
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-china-solar/china-solar-installations-to-slow-as-subsidy-cuts-bite-executive-idUSKCN1VR08R

'“I think from now until 2025 we are probably looking at 20-25 gigawatts (GW) per year,” Eric Luo of GCL System Integration Technology (GCL) said...'

This is not good you guys...  

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23 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Throwing in 500MW of CN for free lowers it to 3.7 cts/W but AFAIK gasoline in China is not free of charge (btw, how did you get to 3.1 cts/W??).

 

 

I was using 4GW based on the 3500MW current guidance. I also left out the interest(me bad) Using lower shipments and interest, yes 3.6 to 3.7 is more likely near term. 

I view internal costs as low as $0.19 if not now in the next 6 months.

$0.06 wafer

$0.05 cell

$0.08 module

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Here we go again, another state looking at implementing fees and  stopping solar . FMPA looking to raise fixed fees from $9 a month up to $50 a month. The goal make more money and stop solar. This groups is ran by a former executive of failed coal company Peabody Energy.

 

https://solarindustrymag.com/fmpa-coordinating-campaign-to-raise-florida-utilities-fixed-fees-and-block-solarThe Florida Municipal Power Agency (FMPA) is waging a campaign to increase monthly fixed fees to as high as $50 in an attempt to block the growth of solar, according to records obtained by the Energy and Policy Institute. FMPA is a wholesale power agency owned by Florida’s municipal electric utilities; it sells electricity to the municipal utilities, which serve 2.3 million Floridians in 31 cities across the state.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, SolarRoof said:

Nice read.  A good reminder, as we're in another of these recurring phases where solars just go down day after day, on no news, as if no one would ever make any money on solar ever again and all solar companies are headed to bankruptcy.

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1 hour ago, Mark said:

Actually, there's news... Friday GCL chief said Klothilde is right.  

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/09/10/eric-luo-china-will-see-just-20-25-gw-of-solar-per-year-through-2025/

This line is very strange: "... most of the subsidized projects allocated this year are in regions that are unworkable after October due to weather conditions" - as though nobody new locations of approved subsidized projects back in July, when everybody was mega jubilant having 45 GW number in mind.... We will see tomorrow or Thursday what  www.energytrend.com will say about China market...

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Watchout Enphase and Solar Edge, there is a new guy in your market and he has name recognition  and size and is aiming at your sales chanells.

 

https://articles2.marketrealist.com/2019/09/generac-challenges-enphase-energy-solaredge-duopoly/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=feed&yptr=yahoo

 

Generac acquired home energy solutions provider Neurio Technology in March, and it acquired Pika Energy in April. Pika Energy manufactures battery storage technologies. With the addition of these technologies, Citron Research noted that Generac’s energy storage product range looks efficient and cost-competitive compared to that of the current players.

Generac stated at its investor day last week that it has engaged in productive talks with Vivint Solar (VSLR) and Sunrun (RUN) to distribute its product.

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Back in August some people wanted me to sell FSLR and buy ENPH.  Thanks god I didn't.  You guys need to be careful with your recommendations, I'm not as rich as you are.

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It's still a nice buy (for trading purposes).  Significantly below the level of last earnings, which were excellent, when this earnings and the outlook should both still be stellar.  At the very least, it should trade back to the level of last earnings, if not above.

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Good news for FSLR and everybody else milking the U.S. PV market.  The latest SEIA quarterly report shows the market is on FIRE.  PV procurement (i.e. PPAs signed) has ballooned to 6.2GW in Q2, i.e. an annual run-rate of 24GW according to my calculator.  Module prices remain sky-high at 35 cts for multi and 43 cts for mono-PERC.

https://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2019-q3

Could we now have some doomsday predictions with bifacial imports eroding prices in no time, etc., cuz the above report for sure has me fired up. 

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4 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Could we now have some doomsday predictions with bifacial imports eroding prices in no time, etc., cuz the above report for sure has me fired up. 

It is indeed good.  Now, hopefully ET/PVI get on the same page this week in regards to CN demand.  Seems like they were conflicted last week.  Any shred of good news would be appreciated.

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On 9/17/2019 at 10:46 AM, Klothilde said:

Good news for FSLR and everybody else milking the U.S. PV market.  The latest SEIA quarterly report shows the market is on FIRE.  PV procurement (i.e. PPAs signed) has ballooned to 6.2GW in Q2, i.e. an annual run-rate of 24GW according to my calculator.  Module prices remain sky-high at 35 cts for multi and 43 cts for mono-PERC.

https://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2019-q3

Could we now have some doomsday predictions with bifacial imports eroding prices in no time, etc., cuz the above report for sure has me fired up. 

Yes the 6.2GW in Q2 if used to project every quarter going forward is a 24G run rate. However, SEIA is only forcasting a roughly 16GW run rate through 2024 according to their recent reports and charts within.. The spike is a rush to get in before the current ITC expiration in 2021.

 

SIDP-2019Q2-Fig11-Forecast.gif

 

https://www.seia.org/solar-industry-research-data

 

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