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Two articles trashing the Chinese PV market:

Has the domestic PV market been reduced to "chicken ribs"?
http://m.solarzoom.com/article-130302-1.html

China solar installations to slow as subsidy cuts bite: executive
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-china-solar/china-solar-installations-to-slow-as-subsidy-cuts-bite-executive-idUSKCN1VR08R

'“I think from now until 2025 we are probably looking at 20-25 gigawatts (GW) per year,” Eric Luo of GCL System Integration Technology (GCL) said...'

This is not good you guys...  

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23 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Throwing in 500MW of CN for free lowers it to 3.7 cts/W but AFAIK gasoline in China is not free of charge (btw, how did you get to 3.1 cts/W??).

 

 

I was using 4GW based on the 3500MW current guidance. I also left out the interest(me bad) Using lower shipments and interest, yes 3.6 to 3.7 is more likely near term. 

I view internal costs as low as $0.19 if not now in the next 6 months.

$0.06 wafer

$0.05 cell

$0.08 module

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Here we go again, another state looking at implementing fees and  stopping solar . FMPA looking to raise fixed fees from $9 a month up to $50 a month. The goal make more money and stop solar. This groups is ran by a former executive of failed coal company Peabody Energy.

 

https://solarindustrymag.com/fmpa-coordinating-campaign-to-raise-florida-utilities-fixed-fees-and-block-solarThe Florida Municipal Power Agency (FMPA) is waging a campaign to increase monthly fixed fees to as high as $50 in an attempt to block the growth of solar, according to records obtained by the Energy and Policy Institute. FMPA is a wholesale power agency owned by Florida’s municipal electric utilities; it sells electricity to the municipal utilities, which serve 2.3 million Floridians in 31 cities across the state.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, SolarRoof said:

Nice read.  A good reminder, as we're in another of these recurring phases where solars just go down day after day, on no news, as if no one would ever make any money on solar ever again and all solar companies are headed to bankruptcy.

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1 hour ago, Mark said:

Actually, there's news... Friday GCL chief said Klothilde is right.  

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/09/10/eric-luo-china-will-see-just-20-25-gw-of-solar-per-year-through-2025/

This line is very strange: "... most of the subsidized projects allocated this year are in regions that are unworkable after October due to weather conditions" - as though nobody new locations of approved subsidized projects back in July, when everybody was mega jubilant having 45 GW number in mind.... We will see tomorrow or Thursday what  www.energytrend.com will say about China market...

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Watchout Enphase and Solar Edge, there is a new guy in your market and he has name recognition  and size and is aiming at your sales chanells.

 

https://articles2.marketrealist.com/2019/09/generac-challenges-enphase-energy-solaredge-duopoly/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=feed&yptr=yahoo

 

Generac acquired home energy solutions provider Neurio Technology in March, and it acquired Pika Energy in April. Pika Energy manufactures battery storage technologies. With the addition of these technologies, Citron Research noted that Generac’s energy storage product range looks efficient and cost-competitive compared to that of the current players.

Generac stated at its investor day last week that it has engaged in productive talks with Vivint Solar (VSLR) and Sunrun (RUN) to distribute its product.

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Back in August some people wanted me to sell FSLR and buy ENPH.  Thanks god I didn't.  You guys need to be careful with your recommendations, I'm not as rich as you are.

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It's still a nice buy (for trading purposes).  Significantly below the level of last earnings, which were excellent, when this earnings and the outlook should both still be stellar.  At the very least, it should trade back to the level of last earnings, if not above.

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Good news for FSLR and everybody else milking the U.S. PV market.  The latest SEIA quarterly report shows the market is on FIRE.  PV procurement (i.e. PPAs signed) has ballooned to 6.2GW in Q2, i.e. an annual run-rate of 24GW according to my calculator.  Module prices remain sky-high at 35 cts for multi and 43 cts for mono-PERC.

https://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2019-q3

Could we now have some doomsday predictions with bifacial imports eroding prices in no time, etc., cuz the above report for sure has me fired up. 

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4 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Could we now have some doomsday predictions with bifacial imports eroding prices in no time, etc., cuz the above report for sure has me fired up. 

It is indeed good.  Now, hopefully ET/PVI get on the same page this week in regards to CN demand.  Seems like they were conflicted last week.  Any shred of good news would be appreciated.

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On 9/17/2019 at 10:46 AM, Klothilde said:

Good news for FSLR and everybody else milking the U.S. PV market.  The latest SEIA quarterly report shows the market is on FIRE.  PV procurement (i.e. PPAs signed) has ballooned to 6.2GW in Q2, i.e. an annual run-rate of 24GW according to my calculator.  Module prices remain sky-high at 35 cts for multi and 43 cts for mono-PERC.

https://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2019-q3

Could we now have some doomsday predictions with bifacial imports eroding prices in no time, etc., cuz the above report for sure has me fired up. 

Yes the 6.2GW in Q2 if used to project every quarter going forward is a 24G run rate. However, SEIA is only forcasting a roughly 16GW run rate through 2024 according to their recent reports and charts within.. The spike is a rush to get in before the current ITC expiration in 2021.

 

SIDP-2019Q2-Fig11-Forecast.gif

 

https://www.seia.org/solar-industry-research-data

 

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Ok, so what's wrong with the solars?  That PURPA crap can't make that much difference eh?  Am I missing some massive news?  This can't just be impeachment jitters... kinda sick to my stomach here recently, been blowing a lot of trades.

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38 minutes ago, Mark said:

Appears as though the SPI conference confirmed terrible Chinese demand.

What makes you say that?  Just the market reaction (which could be due to anything--we all know solars sometimes trade with no rhyme or reason), or do you have some knowledge of what was actually said at the conference?  I haven't seen any headlines coming out of it....

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Just now, solarpete said:

What makes you say that?  Just the market reaction (which could be due to anything--we all know solars sometimes trade with no rhyme or reason), or do you have some knowledge of what was actually said at the conference?  I haven't seen any headlines coming out of it....

Sorry, I should have given a reference.  That's from CSIQ's investor relations:  

SPI just ended. There was talk coming out of it that people were getting ahead of themselves with China volume growth and some sense of sell the news.

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Interesting article on costs of projects and where cost savings can be gained from in China in order to achieve Grid parity. It is suggested that systems costs can be reduced by 28%.  The Kicker, they expect the assumptions used to be a best case target  reached by the end of 2020.

 

The points I have identified below is a summary from an  In-depth industry research,  done by Guohai Securities that is the reference for the data in the article.

 

The top points where this suggested savings comes from is the shift to panel efficiency to 23.5%.  This implies  new technology such as Perc+ or HIT.

Poly is suggested to save 2% on the cost of a project with a 20% reduction in ASP.  A 20% ASP cut from todays  $8.80 places an ASP in the low $7 range.

They are looking for a 7% of savings on the module side primarily by moving to shingle technology. 

They suggest no gains in cost from wafer process.

There is only a 4% cost savings they see from the BOS and ancilarry materials like paste etc.

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190926/1009715.shtml

 

Under the premise of the above assumptions, the cost of photovoltaic power plant system will be reduced by 28%, thus achieving large-scale power generation side parity in the country. We believe that there are two points that need to be focused on: First, from the perspective of the whole industry chain, the cost reduction caused by “increased efficiency” is much higher than that of “reducing the cost”; secondly, it is still difficult to access the Internet at a fair price. Under optimistic circumstances, the above assumptions are expected to be realized by the end of 2020.

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Imo that's just a theoretical best practice discussion and not a forecast of any sorts.  Imagine what would happen to Daqo if its ASP dropped by 20% to $7/kg next year for instance.

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2 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Current market write-up from PVInfolink:
https://en.pvinfolink.com/post-view.php?ID=240

I guess there's still a lot of uncertainty about China demand in Q4.

I understand it is a best case practice however it is segment by segment look at where costs can be cut.  They run a detail anaylis on Si Costs. They suggests that 44% of the cost of Si is electricity.  They suggest that In theory, poly capacity being built today in the low cost regions with new technology has costs under under $4/KG when the VAT is removed.  The numbers described below falls relatively  inline with DQ current target pricing based on legacy capacity, optimization and new capacity.

 

This price point they are suggesting  re-enforces what we have talked about is once the shift to the low cost energy regions is scaled, the legacy capacity in higher electric regions will be shuttered.

 

"The cost line for the corresponding silicon material enterprise is 73 yuan/kg-75 yuan/kg (including tax). That is, under the existing silicon material capacity benchmark, the price of silicon material of 80 yuan/kg has been at a relatively low level.

On the other hand, companies represented by Oriental Hope and Tongwei Baotou rely on low regional electricity prices and advanced management processes to successfully reduce the cost of silicon materials to less than 30 yuan/kg."

 

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8 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Imo that's just a theoretical best practice discussion and not a forecast of any sorts.  Imagine what would happen to Daqo if its ASP dropped by 20% to $7/kg next year for instance.

Once again you're only looking at half of the equation.  Why would the ASP drop to that level?  Because companies lower their price.  And why would they do that?  Because their COSTS drop as well.  Looking at the other posts here, those costs can drop to below $4/kg.

Since you're good at crunching numbers, let me toss the question back to you with that added condition:  what do you think would happen to Daqo if its ASP dropped to $7/kg AND their costs dropped to $4/kg?

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