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3 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Iberdrola building a humongous plant in Spain under €0.5/W:
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/06/07/iberdrola-plans-590-mw-solar-park-in-southern-spain/

NICE!!  That's a lotta panels.  And notice that key adjective "unsubsidized."  If you're still wondering "where's the grid parity"--this is it!

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https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/06/12/bifacial-beats-trumps-tariffs/

Always thought one day I'd get my money back on some FSLR shares I had at $70.  I dumped every share I owned today at 61.50, so that'll never happen.  This makes yesterday's strange attempted breakout look like some insider knew what was gonna happen.  Now, to see how the analysts spin this and twist it up and spit it back out to us to move the stocks.  I added to my CSIQ today.

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Total renewable energy capacity passes that of coal in the U.S. FERC projections that Renewables will supply 1/3 of the capacity in a few years.

 

https://solarindustrymag.com/renewables-finally-beat-coal-for-u-s-electrical-generating-capacity

 

For the first time, U.S. electrical generating capacity by renewable energy sources – biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar and wind – has surpassed that of coal, according to a SUN DAY Campaign analysis of new data from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).

 

 

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It looks to be that many of India's large scale solar plant operators are getting crushed by debt. They are looking to  unload projects to reduce the debts. That is never a good sign, when the projects are not generating the cash flows needed for self sustainment and business operations.

 

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/25/companies-line-up-for-685-megawatt-stressed-solar-assets-sale-in-india/

 

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/25/engie-joins-list-of-developers-looking-to-sell-its-indian-solar-assets/

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, SCSolar said:

It looks to be that many of India's large scale solar plant operators are getting crushed by debt. They are looking to  unload projects to reduce the debts. That is never a good sign, when the projects are not generating the cash flows needed for self sustainment and business operations.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/25/companies-line-up-for-685-megawatt-stressed-solar-assets-sale-in-india/

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/25/engie-joins-list-of-developers-looking-to-sell-its-indian-solar-assets/

Well CSIQ is still lighting candles so they can sell 90MW of operating plants in India.  For their Chinese plants they already ran out of candles.

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1 hour ago, SCSolar said:

Tongwie drops mono Perc cell prices by 4-5% for July price quotes. If there was a pickup in demand it is not showing in the ASP for now.

Yeah, whatever happened to demand exploding in Q3?

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Pretty interesting.  This sort of thing will only continue.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/07/01/new-solar--battery-price-crushes-fossil-fuels-buries-nuclear/#727b67b05971

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Just stumbled across the page of this french reseller.  Quite good to get a feeling where prices are currently for container volumes.  If you deduct a small resale margin I think it is quite consistent with the index spot quotes out there, i.e. approx. 22 uscents for multi and 27 uscents for mono PERC.
http://www.emat.fr/home/opportunites
(scroll down to see the long module list)

That would also point to a slight ASP decline for JKS and CSIQ for Q2-Q3, whatcha think guys?  

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Two articles suggesting the Chinese  PV subsidy system is FUBAR.
http://m.solarzoom.com/article-127649-1.html
http://m.solarzoom.com/article-127661-1.html

The first one says that only 52GW of the 180GW of built plants have entered the subsidy catalog (i.e. 29%) and that even those 52GW are experiencing massive delays in payments.  The article further says it's very unlikely the catalog will be expanded in an eighth batch to include more plants since there's simply no funds available.

The second article shows how the largest PV developer in China (Panda Green) is struggling to stay liquid because of delays in subsidy payments.  Apparently a big chunk of subsidy revenue has gone into accounts receivable just as we saw with Junko Power.

Keep the above in mind when you think of CSIQ and their portfolio of CN operating plants.  Or when you think of JKS and the loan guarantees they provided for Junko Power. 

Jus sayn.

 

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What if the Li brothers let Junko Power default on a loan intentionally so they can trigger a JKS bankruptcy ( via the debt guarantees ) and acquire the JKS assets for pennies on the dollar?  Wouldn't that be a great way to bring home the bacon?

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What if an asteroid wipes out the entire planet tomorrow?  (Well, realistically, it would have to be a comet, coming from the far side of the Sun, giving us maybe a couple of weeks of warning.  An asteroid would be known well in advance.)

My point is that's a Black Swan event.  Yes, they happen, which is one major reason for diversifying one's portfolio.  But you can't base your investments on them.  Or if you do, well, good luck to you.

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Agreed, didn't we hear about delayed payments and such for like 2 or 3 years back around 2014?  Didn't turn out to amount to anything of great concern.  Was just something for Gordon to scare us all about in the end.  As for conspiracy theories and the Li Bros., while I tend to distrust them and agree with you that they'd like to probably steal this from shareholders, maybe they have other plans.  Perhaps they wanna go the get rich quick, Hanergy route and run this sucker up to an absurd valuation in the next year or two given how many shares are owned and how it seems to be defying gravity over the last 6-8 months.  If Biden (or any Dem) gets elected, that may be their opportunity to run this up like Hanergy... or like this Beyond Meat nonsense.  I've started trading Jinko again (emphasis on the trading - day trades, small overnight positions in some cases) just in case.  I'm really only trading CSIQ and JKS now.  FSLR and SPWR got away from me.

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17 hours ago, solarpete said:

...My point is that's a Black Swan event...

Since when do black swans make it into the 20-F?

"...In the event that Jinko Power Group fails to perform its obligations under the loan agreements or otherwise defaults thereunder, the Company will become liable for Jinko Power Group’s obligations under the loan agreements, which amounted to RMB4.07 billion (US$592.5 million) as of December 31, 2018..."

Project Developers are going bust left and right in China.  What makes you think Junko Power is immune?

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Two recent articles suggesting China's grid is slowly getting saturated with PV.  Due to grid issues the total volume of bids for this year's subsidies is only 26GW.  Pumpers will tell you there's no limit to China's PV installations but we sure know better.
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190702/989775.shtml
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190710/991656.shtml

By the way, what's up with those 26GW of submitted bids, isn't that too low a number if you think of the opulent forecasts out there for the CN market?  How many of those projects will be built in 2019 once you filter out projects with technical & financial issues or with delays?  Maybe half?

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6 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Since when do black swans make it into the 20-F?

"...In the event that Jinko Power Group fails to perform its obligations under the loan agreements or otherwise defaults thereunder, the Company will become liable for Jinko Power Group’s obligations under the loan agreements, which amounted to RMB4.07 billion (US$592.5 million) as of December 31, 2018..."

Project Developers are going bust left and right in China.  What makes you think Junko Power is immune?

The CONSEQUENCE of the Black Swan is in the 20-F, not the likelihood of the event itself occurring.

Certainly no one is immune (learned that lesson the hard way with LDK).  But if the possibility that something MAY go wrong with any given company keeps you from investing in that company, then you'll never invest at all.  There are plenty of things that MAY go wrong for your beloved FSLR, too.  It's a question of judging the risk and managing it appropriately.  I certainly wouldn't put all my money into JKS (or into any one solar, or any one company--again, lesson learned the hard way), but I think the risk is acceptable for occasional trading.

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6 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Two recent articles suggesting China's grid is slowly getting saturated with PV.  Due to grid issues the total volume of bids for this year's subsidies is only 26GW.  Pumpers will tell you there's no limit to China's PV installations but we sure know better.
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190702/989775.shtml
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190710/991656.shtml

By the way, what's up with those 26GW of submitted bids, isn't that too low a number if you think of the opulent forecasts out there for the CN market?  How many of those projects will be built in 2019 once you filter out projects with technical & financial issues or with delays?  Maybe half?

Grid issues are real, but are being addressed.  Just google "China DC Power Transmission."  Here's just one example of a recent hit:

https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/the-smarter-grid/chinas-state-grid-corp-crushes-power-transmission-records

More such lines are coming, but it takes time to build and integrate them.

 

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Who says you can't teach and old dog new tricks?  Especially when polls show voters actually care about climate.  I suspect this is mostly to take away some moderate votes next year and to not appear totally out of touch, but whatever the reasons, hopefully there is genuine interest on their part for a change.  I'm doubtful, but hey.  Gotta hope we can get together on this.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/452399-republicans-form-conservation-caucus-to-take-on-environment-climate

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Just one comment:  "show me da money!"

Talk is cheap, and so is forming caucuses.  For starters, stop trying to forcibly extend the life of the coal industry, when consumers don't want it any more.

Do that, and you MAY get my attention.

 

 

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