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4 hours ago, solarpete said:

OK, say you're right.  So what????  In other posts you make rosy prognostications for FSLR for 2021, and here you're worried about the next 3 months????

I'm normally quite the fan of Ralph Waldo Emerson ("A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds"), but this is ridiculous.

FSLR is killing it thanks to the tariffs, otherwise they'd be screwed just like the CNs.

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Good article on the value gap and justifiable price spread between regular multi and high-efficiency mono modules.
http://m.solarzoom.com/article-124438-1.html

The article suggests that the price spread between a 275W regular multi module and a 325W mono-Perc module should be 4.2 - 6.6 cts/W purely due to the savings in area-related BOS costs.

The price spread should increase further when you factor in an assumed 3% gain in power generation per watt from high efficiency mono-PERC vs. regular multi.

Just posting this as food for thought because recently some members here have proposed extremely low price spreads between regular multi and mono-PERC.

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I saw that--impressive!  That's some serious volume.  Even with (presumably) low margins, that should generate some nice profits.  Also, it shows solar manufacturers are not dependent on China anymore.  Any increase in China later this year will just be added gravy.  Finally, this kind of demand for panels bodes well for polysilicon.

All around good news, I'd say!

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Looks like CSIQ is digging the CN solar policy news out today.  It's been my personal ATM this year.  Thanks to it and FSLR, I just signed a contract to go solar on our home, finally.  Always been my goal to have solar pay for solar and today its official.  Going with QCells and Enphase, however, sorry Qu, just made more sense.  Pretty thrilled to get some modules up on the roof next month. 

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On 4/30/2019 at 8:05 AM, MVA said:

"...JinkoSolar has secured new solar panel orders totalling 10.7GW in the first four months of 2019, setting a company and industry record"

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/jinkosolar-sets-new-solar-panel-order-intake-at-10.7gw-in-first-four-months

I believe that article is incorrect in the period of the bookings. They PR'd 

 

http://ir.jinkosolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/jinkosolar-secures-over-107-gw-orders-2019

"Jinko has announced they have contracted FOR 2019 10.7GW.."

 

They did not state 10.7GW IN 2019 which would imply a 4 month bookings. This PR appears to be a cumulative statement for 2019 and not a new bookings in 2019. If that interpretation is correct, they have 3.3-4.3GW left to book for 2019. This would be bookings needed in the next 5 or 6 months.  That is very attainable for them. 

 

This PR follows a notice of expanding 5GW of of Mono capacity pushing capacity to 11.5GW of Mono wafers. That is 500MW higher than previously guided in Q1.  Phillip Shen asked some expansion questions the company indicated it needs some $400-$450M in Capex for the expansions this year. He also questioned them on the equity raising needed and where it comes from and it was clear they are looking at some equity raising.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4250602-jinkosolar-holding-co-ltd-jks-ceo-kangping-chen-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

 

Based on the 2 back to back PR's which are basically an affirmation of their intended capacity expansions and progress for sales in 2019, the company is likely looking for positive press and stock so they can raise equity to pay for the capacity expansion.  

 

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Jinko is at " do not touch" PPS zone for a while now. When they raised the last time (early last year at $18something), stock plummeted 35% after CN 5/31 bomb on its way to $7s in October. As always, it bottomed way before the market did (full two months before market had a mini crash, however Jinko never touched those levels again). I stayed away and will continue to do so. My .02cts.

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China 5MW distributed winning bid to build at 4.33 RMB or $0.65/watt. The prices are getting near grid and should drive big demand in 2020 in China.

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190509/979366.shtml

 

On May 6, Feixian Shandong City Kaiyuan Large Assembly Building Co., Ltd. 5.0mwp distributed photovoltaic power generation epc design, construction project publicity unit. Shandong Linuo Power Design Consulting Co., Ltd. won the bid for the price of 21,644,813.25 yuan. 

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Interesting article in China on subsidy arrears. It sites that due to the lack of subsidy payments comapanies are barely getting enough to cover the debt payments on the power plants. A company like GCL only has 25% of it's projects in the catalog. They are receiving 25% of their subsidy payments. 

 

This is creating cash flow issues and forcing projects to be sold. There is another issue with the project sales is due to the lack of subsidies the price companies want to pay are lower than the sellers wanting to sell. This makes selling plants to cover the debt and investments difficult.

 

Because of this you have major companies pulling back on the quantity of projects they are developing. 

 

This subsidy problems is years in the makings and why CN policy was changed as the cash from taxes was not able to pay for the subsidies. It is causing the pain in the CN markets that has impacted the global pricing.

 

And now you have Jinko Power looking at going public. Jinko Solar is the guarantor of the debts and have risk. Canadian Solar has CN projects they have been looking at selling, do they get less than expected due to the catalog and subsidy issues?

 

Such a policy mess for what was implemented to save the industry 6 years ago.

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190510/979518.shtml

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39 minutes ago, SCSolar said:

...Canadian Solar has CN projects they have been looking at selling, do they get less than expected due to the catalog and subsidy issues?...

I wished you were one of those punk analysts on the con calls, you would get to ask some really nasty questions.  

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Pretty generous response to SPWR earnings... really buying into the 2H19 turnaround story I guess.  Trimmed 1/3 of my CSIQ position this morning... its been a good year for me trading, but I blew this trade bad.  Holding the rest for now in case the street decides to believe the 2020 turnaround in CSIQ.

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15 hours ago, Mark said:

Pretty generous response to SPWR earnings... 

They should rename everything to losses instead of earnings. Losses release, losses con call, losses per share, etc.

Complete crap. Used to be mad at the Chinese for keeping the dead alive (YGE) but turns out the westerners are not a bit better. Guess we're all human LOL.

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So Schroder Investment Management Group was doing some serious buying in Q1 eh?

Bought 3,121,442 shares of Jinko.  (New position)

And 2,761,958 of CSIQ.  (New position)

FSLR got some love with an additional 345,318 to give them a total of 516,571 there. 

 

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Here's GCL forecasting 25GW for China in H2:
https://www.pv-tech.org/news/gcl-si-expects-china-to-install-25gw-in-h2-2019

That would put yearly installs at 5+5+25GW=35GW

I'm getting a vibe that people are slooowly starting to scale back expectations for this year.  Anybody else getting the vibe as well?  Also I don't see prices rising yet, though you may think that they should be rising if people were stocking up for a blockbuster Q3.  You know wham sayn?

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On 3/29/2019 at 12:08 PM, Klothilde said:

Oh no, the Mexicans want to review the old PV power contracts.  Seems like a crazy guy has taken over the state-owned utility there:
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/03/29/mexico-wants-to-review-contracts-awarded-in-energy-auctions/

I guess this leaves Qu in Aguascalientes now, i.e. in hot water.   

 

Looks like Aguascalientes is not a problem any more...

http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-completes-sale-aguascalientes-solar-project

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India is cutting solar install targets for 2019 and 2020 by 23%. They are lowering the targets to 8.5GW. Primary issues is land acquisition.

 

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/27/india-cuts-solar-capacity-addition-target-by-23-for-2019-20/

 

The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) recently announced the capacity addition target for solar power in the financial year 2019-20. India aims to add 8.5 gigawatts of solar power capacity between April 2019 and March 2020, including 1 gigawatt of rooftop solar power capacity. The target is 23% lower than that set for the previous financial year, 2018-19.

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So what happened to grid parody in India?  EPC prices should be as cheap as in China and you have double the sun.  Makes solar power that much more competitive vs. coal.  So why is everybody taking grid parody in China for granted when we don't see the slightest breeze in India?

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I didn't know China was even a player in CdTe tech.  I thought FSLR was already pretty much a monopoly for that tech.

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1 hour ago, Klothilde said:

Fresh vibes pointing to disappointing installs in China in H2.  Read at your own discretion:
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/worlds-biggest-solar-panel-maker-jinkosolar-sees-slowdown-in-china-sales

Price Trend: Market Atmosphere Is Optimistic, and There Will Be No Off-season in 2H19

https://m.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html

Scroll down to see the article below price list...

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