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More long-term good news:

Solar Farms Without Subsidy Sprout from Gloomy Britain to Italy

Bloomberg article--Google it to get the link (it's 4 lines long, I can't paste links here for some odd reason, and I'm too lazy to type it by hand).

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Here is a nice article that makes a case for accelerated depreciation for the solar manufacturers. It covers some history equipment turnover rates and costs. It has some interesting data on throughput and cost drops of technology for diamond wire and  PERC for migrating to CN produced fab vs Meyer Burger.

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20180911/927140-3.shtml

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Seems as though the addition 10GW of unsubsidized projects that China was allegedly to be rolling out (per PV Magazine) wasn't true... anyone read anything elsewhere in regards to that rumor?

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Those 10GW are baloney.  2019 is shaping up to be a disappointment you guys.  China down, India down, Japan down, U.S. flat, Europe slightly up, ROW slightly up.

Where the hell is the rampant growth gonna come ftom that DQ is counting with?  Apart from a rampant growth in poly and PERC capacities I see nothing.

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Never underestimate China. The 531 was an attempt to spur cost reductions and set targets of 4RMB installed systems by 2020 fr grid parity. According to recent bids, they are now getting bids under 4RMB 2 years earlier than target. The article with many charts in Chinese has a road map of where costs are targeted to be cut to reach the achieved goals. It is a long article.

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20180918/928820.shtml

The chart below shows the expected path of PV system construction cost reduction in the second half of 2017, that is, the system cost is reduced by about 30% to 4 yuan/W in three years, and the component is about 2 yuan/W. However, under the influence of the 531 policy, Recently, the EPC winning bid price of the third batch of the top runners project is less than RMB 4/W. That is, in some projects, the 2020 cost target has been achieved two years ahead of schedule.

Although the short-term EPC price drop is largely to reduce the profit margin of all links in the industry chain (even causing some enterprises to lose money), with the popularization and application of various cost reduction technologies, the installation cost remains unchanged or even continues. In the process of decline, the profit level of the industrial chain will gradually return to a reasonable level.

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Not certain how accurate some of these numbers are, but it is clear they are overbuilt on cpacities

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20180921/929732.shtml

 

Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network News¬†: In recent years, China's PV industry has been transformed from a typical world processing base of ‚Äútwo heads out‚ÄĚ to a global PV innovation and manufacturing base in the entire industry chain.

The total capacity of silicon materials in China's provinces is about 689,735 tons, of which Xinjiang's production capacity ranks first, about 279,000 tons, accounting for 40.5%; followed by Jiangsu Province, with 168,000 tons, accounting for 25%.

China's provinces have a production capacity of 218 GW of silicon wafers, of which Jiangsu Province ranks first, with about 55 GW, accounting for 25.2%; followed by Yunnan Province, with 46 GW, accounting for 21%.

The production capacity of China's provinces is 113 GW, of which Jiangsu Province ranks first, about 47 GW, accounting for about 42%; followed by Anhui Province, about 17 GW, accounting for about 15%.

The production capacity of PV modules in China's provinces reached 151GW, of which Jiangsu Province ranked first, about 70GW, accounting for 46%; followed by Zhejiang Province, about 25GW, accounting for 16%.

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It looks like Trump's tariff stimulates drastic Yuan depreciation vs USD, which helps enormously those PV manufacturers in China, who have substantial share of sales to Export (sales out of China)... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-30/jpmorgan-says-u-s-china-tariffs-to-go-all-out-lowers-yuan-call?srnd=premium

Edited by MVA

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2 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Horrible market picture by energytrend.  86GW demand in 2018 but 150GW of supply. 
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/10/09/module-prices-have-decreased-by-up-to-25-so-far-this-year-trendforce-says/

75GW of that capacity is now PERC. Canadian Solar is second currently behind Tiongwei in Perc Capacity and is soon to 3rd or lower. The last paragraph is interesting in that they are suggesting Mono is going to take 70% of the market in 2019. That is another blow to CSIQ that is betting on Multi.

 

http://m.solarzoom.com/article-115352-1.html

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9 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

Could someone buy out jks to put it out its misery?

Eh, that's the 2019 go private that oozes into 2020.

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14 hours ago, Mark said:

Eh, that's the 2019 go private that oozes into 2020.

That going private offer for CSIQ is sure starting to look a lot like the Jaso offer.

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2 years away but after 2020 China is looking at 80-160GW of PV a year.

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20181018/934968.shtml

 

The report also pointed out that after 2020, photovoltaics and wind power will grow rapidly. In the next 10 years, China will usher in a large-scale construction of photovoltaic and wind power. The installed capacity of photovoltaics is about 80~160GW/year

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Thank you for the summary. Those are big numbers. I’m assuming subsidy free so they expect grid parity it seems over the next two years. Would be huge for the whole sector if the plan is implemented as stated. 

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Assuming CSIQ will go private well before 2020, the question remains will JKS? Because if JKS will "go private" too, who cares about huge CN install number after 2020, since we'll have no way to "participate".

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