Jump to content
dydo

Solar News

Recommended Posts

Interesting article on GTM. They are suggestion sub $14/MWhr come 2022.

 

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/by-2023-the-world-will-have-one-trillion-watts-of-installed-solar-pv-capaci#gs.nEthzzQ

 

"Bid prices will continue their downward march pretty much everywhere. More sub-2-cent PV bids are likely, both in leading low-cost markets and in emerging markets that are launching solicitations. By 2022, awarded prices as low as $14/MWh will be old news," they write in the report

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So no tariffs/MIPs in India or EU.  And possibility of this extra 10GW in China.  Anyone feeling like we've seen/are seeing the bottom?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, SCSolar said:

Interesting article on GTM. They are suggestion sub $14/MWhr come 2022.

 

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/by-2023-the-world-will-have-one-trillion-watts-of-installed-solar-pv-capaci#gs.nEthzzQ

 

"Bid prices will continue their downward march pretty much everywhere. More sub-2-cent PV bids are likely, both in leading low-cost markets and in emerging markets that are launching solicitations. By 2022, awarded prices as low as $14/MWh will be old news," they write in the report

So shipment volumes will continue to set new records.  But will this just be more "profitless prosperity?"  This might be good news for the planet--but what about our portfolios?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Mark said:

So no tariffs/MIPs in India or EU.  And possibility of this extra 10GW in China.  Anyone feeling like we've seen/are seeing the bottom?  

I sure hope so!!  It's been totally impossible to make any money swing trading the solar sector for over a month now (at least for me).  Prices cratered to their usual stupid-low levels and haven't budged much since.  This despite the fact that most are at least still profitable.  Yet everyone is priced as if they're all going bankrupt tomorrow.

I sometimes think my solar investments are God's way of teaching me patience....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, solarpete said:

I sure hope so!!  It's been totally impossible to make any money swing trading the solar sector for over a month now (at least for me).  Prices cratered to their usual stupid-low levels and haven't budged much since.  This despite the fact that most are at least still profitable.  Yet everyone is priced as if they're all going bankrupt tomorrow.

I sometimes think my solar investments are God's way of teaching me patience....

I hear ya... my trading income has gone to zero for the last several weeks.  Much of my trading money is stuck at $68 and what i had left is just sitting here doing next to nothing with this low volume summer BS.  Really hope these China rumors are confirmed, maybe that'll get things moving... would seem to perk Gordon up, given his 2 ways that he'd consider changing his FSLR view.  US tariffs haven't been extended, but trade war is ugly and also tax credits were extended.  Should make him happy.  And China isn't exactly reversing policy as he said he'd need, but adding 10GW ain't all that bad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Mark said:

So no tariffs/MIPs in India or EU.  And possibility of this extra 10GW in China.  Anyone feeling like we've seen/are seeing the bottom?  

Great find Mark & thanks for sharing that!  How much is 10GW compared to what everybody freaked out about earlier??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Great find Mark & thanks for sharing that!  How much is 10GW compared to what everybody freaked out about earlier??

From GTM when China did the original cuts: "The changes could cut China’s capacity forecast by 40 percent, to 28.8 gigawatts from 48 gigawatts, according to GTM Research. Wood Mackenzie projects a cut of 20 gigawatts this year, down to just 30 gigawatts. Other projections put 2018 capacity closer to 35 gigawatts."

And per PV-Tech, China has installed 24.3GW in 1H2018.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Mark said:

From GTM when China did the original cuts: "The changes could cut China’s capacity forecast by 40 percent, to 28.8 gigawatts from 48 gigawatts, according to GTM Research. Wood Mackenzie projects a cut of 20 gigawatts this year, down to just 30 gigawatts. Other projections put 2018 capacity closer to 35 gigawatts."

 And per PV-Tech, China has installed 24.3GW in 1H2018.  

Those numbers were for full year numbers?  How much is installed in the second half normally?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Those numbers were for full year numbers?  How much is installed in the second half normally?

 

In 2017: 52.83 total, 24.4 of that in 1H17

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Mark said:

In 2017: 52.83 total, 24.4 of that in 1H17

If this 10GW happens, then wouldn't this be a good time to buy some calls?

CSIQ & FSLR are even drifting down so the calls should be cheap.

Which company would be the most effected by this?  I guess JKS?  Also CSIQ?

Edited by sunnypease

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, need China to confirm this soon and put an end to the bleeding.  Watching FSLR bleed out on such light volume is like having teeth pulled with my kid's toy pliers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, Mark said:

Yeah, need China to confirm this soon and put an end to the bleeding. 

All the solars are quite in the green.  I wonder if it's all because of CSIQ or is the news of the China distributed solar 10GW boost seeping into the prices?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

All the solars are quite in the green.  I wonder if it's all because of CSIQ or is the news of the China distributed solar 10GW boost seeping into the prices?

 

Thinking mostly CSIQ news and we'll have another rally if/when China announces their plan.  Added a little bit FSLR today.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Monday, September 3 is closest catalyst - European MIP (minimum import price) expiration.

India is tariff free, and if EU is free and China confirms 10 GW policy - then all solar will explode!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, MVA said:

Monday, September 3 is closest catalyst - European MIP (minimum import price) expiration.

India is tariff free, and if EU is free and China confirms 10 GW policy - then all solar will explode!

buying some calls?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I re-read that post & this time noticed the time frame:

"bidding to start as early as October. Successful bidders will start construction from around March, and must finish by the end of September or December next year."

So, sounds unlikely this affects Q3 or 4, but maybe Q1?  

I guess that's why solar stocks are not exactly jumping, but this news should firm up prices.  

For once I randomly lucked out.  I bought CSIQ calls on this news & the next day this fund announcing they are pushing the CSIQ deal ahead.  Didn't buy enough though.

Edited by sunnypease

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GCL Out with H1 numbers.  Wafer ASP is 11.0 ct/W.  GM of solar materials division is 16.2%.  Put one and one together and you get wafer costs of 9.2 ct/W.
http://gcl-poly.todayir.com/attachment/2018082923020200003248711_en.pdf

They are selling those same wafers for less then 7 cts now so go figure what will happen in H2.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, MVA said:

 

EU officially ends MIP for Chinese solar imports

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/08/31/eu-ends-mip-against-chinese/

Finally. Five lost years for the planet in terms of EU effort to heavily roll out solar.

It will mean lower ASPs. CN players sold from Vietnamese and Thai factories to EU at artificially above global ASPs. Now these factories will sell to lower ASP market India and the CN factories (that we know makes the most competitive) will again serve the now more competitive but also more relevant EU market. From link above:

Meanwhile, in July, Taiwan-based TrendForce said that if the MIP does expire, Vietnamese and Thai suppliers will fill the gap left in the Indian market by Chinese exporters, which will again concentrate on the EU market. Under this scenario, competition would be intensified, it said, thus driving down module prices, and potentially stimulating growth of non-subsidy PV projects.

In total I think this is good as China factories found a new big market that is coming out of an install breather now that China market will take an install breather. Inventories in China can be digested more quickly to avoid complete ASP crash in China.

From the perspective of meeting climate your goals and not being protective of a non-competitive domestic industry this is the smart thing to do if you want to be opportunistic about transitioning your energy generation system both not too late and not too expensively. China did a similar thing and started their great install when ASPs in China had fallen extremely low (from prior levels). In the end they rose to become the highest (non-tariffed) in the world and they decided to pull the brakes again. It seems EU gets a chance to be opportune with a large roll out after taking the big cost of kickstarting the industry. The big question is if US has any interest in timely transition at opportune low cost. They or China in a second wave might gobble things up once EU have had their fill.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think there's a lot of wishful thinking in place here.  People are longing for some kind of market change that will spur runaway demand and will make margins and stock prices rise big time.  Me, I like to look at things more rationally.  MIP gone?  No big deal since Europe was sourcing stuff from south-east Asia anyway which was only a coupla pennies more expensive than CN.  Those coupla pennies in cost savings translate to 5% of system cost.  Yawn.  I'm staying in bed folks.  Wake me up when there's a profit warning or bankruptcy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Klothilde said:

I think there's a lot of wishful thinking in place here.  People are longing for some kind of market change that will spur runaway demand and will make margins and stock prices rise big time.  Me, I like to look at things more rationally.  MIP gone?  No big deal since Europe was sourcing stuff from south-east Asia anyway which was only a coupla pennies more expensive than CN.  Those coupla pennies in cost savings translate to 5% of system cost.  Yawn.  I'm staying in bed folks.  Wake me up when there's a profit warning or bankruptcy.

Klothilde, do you know if Europe still charges VAT (something near 20%?) on panels?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think there's a uniform VAT system across all EU countries.  My take is that most countries charge VAT if you buy the panel for private consumption and don't charge it in B2B transactions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

158GW of PERC in 2022 forecast

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/09/07/perc-market-to-reach-158-gw-by-2022/

 

In a report, WisolPro says the global market demand for passivated emitter rear contact (PERC) cells will reach 158 GW by 2022, up from 52 GW in 2018, while the available capacity will be 168 GW, up from 64 GW in 2018.

In its analysis, the firm further estimates that PERC’s growth in market share will reach a high in 2022 and then level out. P-type PERC technology, meanwhile, is likely to replace p-type multi-crystalline technology. By 2022, says WisolPro, P-type multi will have nearly vanished from the market. Other technologies, such as heterojunction (HJT), or n-type PERT, will be mostly unaffected by this development, it adds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jink Power submits lowests bid in Jordan at $0.02488

 

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/09/10/jordans-round-3-pv-auction-opening-lowest-bid-of-0-02488-usd-kwh-for-50-mw-projects/

The results of Jordan’s Round 3 solar PV auction have been announced. Jinko Power (HK) Company Limited submitted the lowest bid of US$0.02488/kWh. Jinko, along with two other companies, are now in pole position to be awarded projects

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like 25% tarrifs is back on in india

 

https://mercomindia.com/supreme-court-allows-government-safeguard-duty-solar/

 

ndia will soon begin with the imposition of safeguard duty on solar cells and modules which had been put on hold by the government. In a significant order, the Supreme Court of India has made it clear that safeguard duty will be levied effective July 30, 2018. Through this interim order, the apex court of the country has nullified the Orissa High Court’s stay order on levy of safeguard duty on imported solar cells and modules.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



  • Donate

    Please donate to support this community. We appreciate all donations!

    Donate Sidebar by DevFuse
  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      32
    • Total Posts
      91,354
  • Who's Online (See full list)

×
×
  • Create New...