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"We are revising our forecast upwards since our previous update due to positive news coming out of China along with revised installation goals,” said Raj Prabhu, CEO and Co-Founder of Mercom Capital Group."

"Global Solar installations to reach 57.4 GW globally in 2015"

http://www.indiainfoline.com/article/news-top-story/global-solar-installations-to-reach-57-4-gw-globally-in-2015-115061700370_1.html

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"Govt raises solar power target by five times to 100,000 MW by 2022"

 

I can't say I am a fan. It seems like a preposterous target and robs the plan of legitimacy. Ramp up to in 6 months ~17GW/yr and roughly $1B USD subsidies (per year?). Does anyone have confidence this can happen? Who can scale up development that quick? Going from zero to biggest projects region in less than a year?

 

I don't know; if this gains legitimacy and I have to latch onto impossible dreams as an investment hypothesis, I would place my bet on SUNE to stake some equally ridiculous claim. What's their word on India?

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GTM Research has a bullish outlook: http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/55-gw-of-solar-pv-will-be-installed-globally-in-2015-up-36-over-2014

 

Coming phase - North America contracts/Europe strikes back: http://www.greentechmedia.com/content/images/articles/global-pv-demand-2020.png

 

Looks like they expect annual demand to be more than 130 GW already by 2020. That's a 20%+ CAGR coming 5-6 years.

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Guest BIPV Investor

GTM Research has a bullish outlook: http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/55-gw-of-solar-pv-will-be-installed-globally-in-2015-up-36-over-2014

 

Coming phase - North America contracts/Europe strikes back: http://www.greentechmedia.com/content/images/articles/global-pv-demand-2020.png

 

Looks like they expect annual demand to be more than 130 GW already by 2020. That's a 20%+ CAGR coming 5-6 years.

 

Just read that article. The spread between estimates for this year, much less for 2020 is very wide. Other reports suggest 50GW this year and 70GW by 2020. In one scenario we all end up rich, in the other not so much. Until there is real clarity in the direction and velocity of the market growth, I expect the sector to remain sluggish and subject to wild swings. Even today with 8point3's impending IPO tomorrow and the Pope speech on climate change, we red (with hardly any volume) during a strong market day.

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Just read that article. The spread between estimates for this year, much less for 2020 is very wide. Other reports suggest 50GW this year and 70GW by 2020. In one scenario we all end up rich, in the other not so much. Until there is real clarity in the direction and velocity of the market growth, I expect the sector to remain sluggish and subject to wild swings. Even today with 8point3's impending IPO tomorrow and the Pope speech on climate change, we red (with hardly any volume) during a strong market day.

 

I'm not sure who needs to clarify what?

 

Will future planet inhabitants have a thirst for energy?

 

If yes, will electricity be a preferred form of energy?

 

If yes, will directly tapping the giant fusion reactor 8.3 lightminutes away from us using the Einstein discovered (moving mechanic parts) free photo electric effect be the preferred source?

 

If yes, will picking the future dominators in this space when offered at low prices now be a good idea?

 

If yes, will I care if someone comes out and clarifies this?

 

If yes, then I'm an impatient trader and not a smart long-term investor as the opportunity (low prices now) will quickly go away.

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Guest BIPV Investor

I'm not sure who needs to clarify what?

 

Will future planet inhabitants have a thirst for energy?

 

If yes, will electricity be a preferred form of energy?

 

If yes, will directly tapping the giant fusion reactor 8.3 lightminutes away from us using the Einstein discovered (moving mechanic parts) free photo electric effect be the preferred source?

 

If yes, will picking the future dominators in this space when offered at low prices now be a good idea?

 

If yes, will I care if someone comes out and clarifies this?

 

If yes, then I'm an impatient trader and not a smart long-term investor as the opportunity (low prices now) will quickly go away.

 

I always took you for a fact based investor, but between your bizarre instance on JASO and post like that I'm beginning to realize I may have been mistaken. I'd also remind you that all your gains in the sector have come from trading and that long term holding has gotten you nowhere. Oh wait, I forgot you managed to get a 60% return last year by holding JASO despite it being down 20% year-over-year.

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I always took you for a fact based investor, but between your bizarre instance on JASO and post like that I'm beginning to realize I may have been mistaken. I'd also remind you that all your gains in the sector have come from trading and that long term holding has gotten you nowhere. Oh wait, I forgot you managed to get a 60% return last year by holding JASO despite it being down 20% year-over-year.

Philosophy is the same: avoid dead companies, buy the rest when price is low. I don't care about clarity on how incentive policies in Zimbabwe are progressing. I care only about if the stock is cheap, if the industry is dead (e.g. further cost reductions are not possible) or if the company is dead. Buy what lives and thrives when its cheap and sell when it's expensive. By now you should have figured out that I'm more pessimistic than you, since I won't touch CN3 at these prices (I sold them when I found them no longer cheap). The reason I hold JASO is that it remains a cheap survivor and that's why I don't want my only option right now (CN3 will be cheap again) to be taken private.

You constantly doubt the industry and want some clarification on it it seems. Stay away from the sector if you are not sure about it. Stay away from a stock if you are not sure about it being cheap relative to discounted free cash flow coming 15 years. And do your DD to be sure. I've done it and holding JASO and no CN3 is the result of it.

To make it simple JKS and CSIQ no longer trade at $2. Future is the same, it's simple the future, so thus the discounted free cash flow coming 15 years are the same, you are just paying 15 times more for the same thing now than what you could do when things were "cheap". Buying things when they are not cheap is more risk and less reward.

Yes I am a fact based investor. There are only two things to consider price (PPS) and value (discounted future free cash flow + current liquidation value). The price is a hard fact the other is speculative. Thus price is the dominating decision basis for me. The other is tons of more fun and work to figure out though, but doesn't matter if it's not good when put in relation to price. Some try to consider a third thing; how the PPS will move. I don't since the market will bully and confuse you. If price is less than my value estimate I hold otherwise I don't and I don't care what the market thinks, but I exploit what the market thinks to buy when I think price is low and sell when I think price is high.

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I think 2 billion is Chinese RMB.

$2 Billion RMB is the equivalent to 322,120,840.00 US Dollar

The take over bid by Chairman was $489 Million, I'm confused.

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Guest BIPV Investor

It's just some random auto generated article most likely written by a robot. There is nothing to it and I would give it any thought as to it mentioning $2billion. If I'm wrong and JASO jumps 4x tomorrow I'll be more than happy.

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First Solar (FSLR) PT Raised to $73 at Needham & Company as Yieldco IPO Prices Strong.

 

http://www.streetinsider.com/IPOs/First+Solar+(FSLR)+PT+Raised+to+$73+at+Needham+%26+Company+as+Yieldco+IPO+Prices+Strong/10665059.html

 

Needham & Company analyst Y. Edwin Mok reiterated a Buy rating and bumped his price target on First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) to $73.00 (from $69.00) as the IPO for joint yieldco with SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR), 8point3 (NASDAQ: CAFD), priced at the high end of the range at $21/sh.

 

 

It seems that the YieldCo IPO today will bring the whole solar sectot up.

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"Leading German solar players call for end to minimum price"

"Wacker, Baywa r.e. and MVV, three major German companies in the energy sector, have called for an end to the minimum price regime applied to Chinese modules. The companies claim the minimum price regulation is standing in the way of German market growth."

Uh oh Solarworld...

http://m.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/leading-german-solar-players-call-for-end-to-minimum-price_100019883/

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8Point3 Energy Partners LP (CAFD) - priced ~20M shares at $21; initial price range was $19-$21; shares expected to be released for quotation at 10:35 ET, trading at approx. 10:50

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UK installed 2.53GW of solar in Q1 2015

http://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/news/exclusive_uk_installed_2.53gw_of_solar_in_q1_2015_3425

 

 

The astonishing amount of new capacity completed in the first three months of the year almost eclipses what the industry managed to install in total in 2014 – itself a record-breaking year for UK PV deployment.

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