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Guest JulyWebb

Chinese solar panels were not subsidized in 2012 that's where I'm seeing they wrongly counted. A taped interview from Jigar Shah that spoke about wrongful accusations made by the US on the CVD charge back in 2012 but it was said they were dumping, AD..  If China was not subsidizing like the US claimed then the US will have no ruling on CVD charges back from 2012, the way I see it and the new CVD with a matter of time could not be imposed either.

 

Correction Jigar Shah http://www.chinaglobaltrade.com/expert-response/if-chinese-lose-case-we%E2%80%99re-not-going-get-panels-us-we%E2%80%99re-going-get-them-other-countr

 

 

However, the Appellate Body also left intact another part of the panel's ruling, which said that the United States had wrongly "double counted" when punishing Chinese goods for being both subsidized and unfairly priced - allowing both parties to claim victory. 

 

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Not sure why people credit today's positive trading action on the WTO ruling, which came out a few days ago. But it's good to see good press all over the place.

 

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12773193/1/why-yingli-green-energy-yge-stock-is-up-today.html?

http://www.rechargenews.com/solar/1369416/WTO-backs-China-in-2012-trade-case?

 

How significant is this ruling? At the very least, I think it should help both sides to agree on a compromise before the final decision on the new case.

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The recharge article probably makes the most sense here.

 

 

 

Many Chinese suppliers are known to be contemplating a strategy that would see them shifting back to producing all the components at home and simply paying the 2012 duties, rather than transitioning their global supply chain yet again to accommodate the latest trade cases.

 
If the WTO case had the effect of making it cheaper to employ such a strategy, it would be warmly welcomed by Chinese suppliers – and their US customers.
 
However, US-listed shares of Chinese PV companies were little moved by the news, with most advancing 1-3% on a day when US markets were broadly up.

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Guest JMK

However, US-listed shares of Chinese PV companies were little moved by the news, with most advancing 1-3% on a day when US markets were broadly up.

more or less obvious - USA won't go along with WTO decision. They will ignore it

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Guest JulyWebb

more or less obvious - USA won't go along with WTO decision. They will ignore it

 

They have to they have no choice or the WTO will appoint a panel themselves a make law. First mutual parties try to work out their differences. As far as Taiwan goes it seems senseless to punish them with direct sales of solar cells into the US, I would say the US is not abiding by Trade Rules if they did that when US Solars import their solar cells from Malaysia, etc. and exactly what are they being punished for supplying CN Solars dah?

 

This is wrather complexed http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/disp1_e.htm

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more or less obvious - USA won't go along with WTO decision. They will ignore it

 

This is not shared by most out there, but we'll see.

 

 

 

Domestic steel producers could face renewed price competition from China. The World Trade Organization has found that U.S. tariffs violated global trade rules, while solar-panel installer SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) could pay lower prices for Chinese products.

The world trading body ruled that the U.S. improperly imposed duties on Chinese steel and solar products. The WTO also said that the U.S. must change its duties on certain Indian steel products.
 
 

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Guest JMK

This is not shared by most out there, but we'll see.

I hope you are right but this is USA. How WTO is going to punish them? Those who implemented tariffs knew in advance that they violate WTO rules and nevertheless they did it. They were warned many times that imposing tariffs hurt US economy, losing jobs and gaining nothing due to a simple fact: there are no any substantial production of solar panels in USA. SW was "bought" to play certain role. In a tough reality tariffs were implemented under pressure of "The oil WS boys" who control Government and Congress.

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I don't know exactly how this is going to play out but one thing is for sure: it's a net positive.

 

 

 

 


How significant is this ruling? At the very least, I think it should help both sides to agree on a compromise before the final decision on the new case.

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WTO found Canada's local content requirement as offending and that rule changed very quickly. Some thought Canadian is going to suffer because of that change; this is how fast it was implemented. US have an opportunity to ignore it, but it is a member of the organization as well. After reasonable period of 15 months there could be retribution, and in case of China law is behind them including the whole WTO organization. If the current government is able to insist that what is wrong according to WTO stands, a lot of ethical issues could be created by such situation.  I doubt that the US is ready to ignore it. Sunny is right suggesting this creates another reason to negotiate.

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If the WTO has issued this statement, what negotiations are even needed, at this point? Isnt this pretty much a win for the CN at this point? Game, set....match?

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This is my CSIQ model for Q2,

I do not count for the lawsuits etc or any other potential one times but CB only

Revenue $590M

GM 18.6%

gross profit $109M

Opex $46M

Net interest expense 10M (13-3M of interest income)

Foreign derivatives and forex around 2M gain

Add 10M CB net ( 5M in costs) see the same or very similar CB performance here as JKS

12M in taxes (this is very high but I expect high taxation on strong performance quarters including GAAP gains like CB)

Net income $53M

controlling interest around 7M

net income 46.7M

or around $0.85 per share.

 

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Guest JulyWebb

If the WTO has issued this statement, what negotiations are even needed, at this point? Isnt this pretty much a win for the CN at this point? Game, set....match?

The CVD they don't negotiate WTO rules!

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Interesting, they go horisontally in the chemical space instead of downstream in PV. More like their international competitors. I wonder what will happen to their wafer processing. They pretty much killed the profitability in that segment themselves. Will they continue or let their PV partners take more stake in that business?

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Yingli Green Energy Signs a EPC Contract with Senelec for a 2 MW Project
Partners will co-develop one of Senegal's largest PV plants to power the International Conference Center Diamniadio in Dakar, the country's capital
 

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Guest JulyWebb

Where's that Nice Article from Barron's about how the US violated Trade Rules against China and India? :cool:

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JA

Revenue $403m

GM 16.3%

OM 7.1%

Net interest expense 2.3%

 

So $403m x 4.8% = $19m before forex, derivatives and taxes.

 

Based on:

350 MW global module shipments (+43 MW) with ASP down 1 cent from 69 cents in Q1

100 MW domestic module shipments (+19 MW) with ASP down 1 cent from 62 cents in Q1

230 MW global cell shipments (+65 MW) with ASP down 0.5 cent from 40.5 cents in Q1

20 MW domestic cell shipments (-65 MW) with ASP down 1 cent from 36 cents in Q1

Blended module and cell costs flat

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For TSL, I had the below estimate following their Q1 release. Similar to JKS, I'll need to update it with newer infor, especially with June CEDR data.

 

 

Gross Rev (k$):         $546,000

Gross Profit:              $  92,400

GM:                             16.92%

 

Opex:                         $56,382

Income from oper:     $36,018

 

Assuming similar interest expense and other adjustments, 

 

Net Income:               $26,093

 

This gives $0.36 EPS, before factoring the increased share count from the latest equity offering. No estimates for the cost of the offering and gain/loss form the CBs are included.

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I also did JASO back then. The result was very similar to explo's. But in the end,

 

Net Income:    $18,205   (Tax charge: $3.1 M, no estimate for warrants was done)

EPS:               0.31

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http://seekingalpha.com/article/2313465-terraform-power-sminus-1-teardown-is-sunedison-guilty-of-moral-turpitude

 

This "analyst"  is mostly short from prior articles, as far as I can tell. While some of the risks he lists may be genuine, I think the comments lay it out pretty well that the analysis itself suggests the yieldco to be a good investment (at least until 2020!). In any case, the bigger picture is that yieldcos are great for the issuing solar company.

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Guest quinn the eskimo

Some useful charts on recent YieldCo results. Don't know if I'm buying,and have no idea where it goes long-term, but out of the gate, it's interesting.

 

http://www.greenchipstocks.com/articles/terraform-power-nasdaq-terp-ipo/2242

 

Also, have begun selling some of my SUNE options - up 40% - to buy some Jinko and CSIQ. Wish I had a better crystal ball on what comes next, but hey.... you make the best calls you can, eh?  :)

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Thanks that was an insteresting read. Importing all-Chinese panels at production cost plus a minimal 5% markup can keep tariff cost as low as 15 cents for Jinko and 13 cents for Trina. This allows them to sell in US at $0.75 at roughly same profit margin as in China. US installers lose and China installers win in this setup. Panel sellers just adjust the price for the tariff cost.

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Guest JulyWebb

Thanks that was an insteresting read. Importing all-Chinese panels at production cost plus a minimal 5% markup can keep tariff cost as low as 15 cents for Jinko and 13 cents for Trina. This allows them to sell in US at $0.75 at roughly same profit margin as in China. US installers lose and China installers win in this setup. Panel sellers just adjust the price for the tariff cost.

 

If we take away the CVD charge from 2012 how much less would that be? Read in a comment under this article it would amount to 2 to 3% less and then another non-official comment from biased SW it would be 1% less. 

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Guest quinn the eskimo

Suddenly the Jinko export numbers from last quarter might make sense. They shipped a lot (for JKS) to the US, and it was at low ASPs. So.... if they did it this way, then they simply used low mark-ups at the border.... and will hike after that if/as they can. 

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Guest JulyWebb

I don't know but if you look at solar cell increased sales in the month of May for Taiwan it could mean that some CN Solars stockpiled in the US like they did before with the EU. My former business I bought and sold Gold and Silver if I felt prices would get higher I took advantage however I could with lower pricing from exporters and bought more. They always find a way and I call it stockpiling before the inevitable.

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