Jump to content
dydo

Solar News

Recommended Posts

11 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

I know that you read many trading books and are probably a professional trader.  Can you share how successful your trading style has been?

I am a value investor/trader and would do the opposite, meaning would probably buy when it drops to $42 and would sell now.  I bought and sold a few times for a couple dollars at a time.  Often, I miss a big run, but I am doing ok so far. I often bought a bit early and sold a bit early too.

I often waited until a stock becomes a bargain and some before I buy.  The selling part is hard.

I hope to learn from you regarding when to sell if you care to share.

 

I´ve read a number of books, most of them have been a waste of money and time. The best book I´ve ever read and the only one I recommend reading is Richard Wyckoffs Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks, published in the early 1930s, pretty much everything I use for trading is found within its pages.

This particular trade is a rather straightforward setup;

42 is approximately the 50% of the most recent long term upwave (20-72), it is holding so buyers are supporting price, hence the probabilities point towards another upwave. If however buyers fail and sellers push prices below this critical 50% ret. level, the stock is in trouble and I don´t wanna be anywhere near it.

A part from all this technical stuff, my favourite confirmation for entering a trade is if a brokerage house or reputable institution issues some form of statement. For instance if JP Morgan downgrades a stock (e.g. DAQO), it means they are probably accumulating shares and they are luring retail investors into selling.

IT wouldn´t surprise me if the most recent 350 M stock issuance was some form of accumulation by some financial sindicate.

1- They bash the stock upon great earnings, retail investors panick and sell, but somebody buys everything at 42.

2- JP Morgan issues the downgrade to get more traders to panick sell.

3- Daqo issues 350 Million of new stock at 42 and hands it over to some sindicate, perhaps even JP Morgan themselves.

4- There is no more supply, price can continue its merry way upward, JP MORGAN and other sindicates now own a stock they purchased at CIRCA 3.5 PE

 

 

Edited by tupapa
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, tupapa said:

I forgot to answer your question. My definition oh holding a level is at least 1 hour of price not being pushed back into the range, i.e. an hour of price either moving beyond or hovering near the level (in this case 48) i

ok, thanks. I guess the break out and hold signal was very solid then and strongly confirmed a few hours later.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Mark said:

The key will be to get the cost of solar down even farther so that ITC or interest rates don't matter that much in 2022.

Good point about the Fed rate hikes being gradual, to give industry time to adjust.  By the same argument, I don't get the panic drop in DQ.  Yes, ASPs are falling.  But the company said they're basically sold out for the next year--so they have a year to work on reducing their costs accordingly.  And in the past, they've been able to do just that.

I guess we'll see, but I didn't sell what I bought at higher prices, expecting a recovery.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/22/2018 at 12:57 PM, tupapa said:

IT wouldn´t surprise me if the most recent 350 M stock issuance was some form of accumulation by some financial sindicate.

1- They bash the stock upon great earnings, retail investors panick and sell, but somebody buys everything at 42.

2- JP Morgan issues the downgrade to get more traders to panick sell.

3- Daqo issues 350 Million of new stock at 42 and hands it over to some sindicate, perhaps even JP Morgan themselves.

4- There is no more supply, price can continue its merry way upward, JP MORGAN and other sindicates now own a stock they purchased at CIRCA 3.5 PE

 

 

Daqo doing pretty well so far, the market is tanking but Daqo showing strenght, this is encouraging since it shows buyers are making use of market weakness to load up on Daqo and they are being forced to bid up prices due to the lack of supply.

Whether the assessment I made above is correct still remains to be seen, prices moving beyond 72 would confirm the most recent drop upon the release stellar earnings as another instance of blatant, grievous manipulation that characterizes wall street.

Edited by tupapa

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Klothilde said:

China new PV installations to shrink to 40-45GWp in 2018, says CPIA
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20180322PD201.html

WTF?  Why is the Chinese PV association spreading doom & gloom?  China better install more than that otherwise we're all screwed.

I wouldn't call that doom and gloom.  The JKS transcript says the same thing, but they also say those numbers may be conservative, AND they say emerging markets are coming on strong.  Their bottom line was while the pace may be slow, the future for the entire solar industry still looks bright.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, tupapa said:

Daqo doing pretty well so far, the market is tanking but Daqo showing strenght, this is encouraging since it shows buyers are making use of market weakness to load up on Daqo and they are being forced to bid up prices due to the lack of supply.

Whether the assessment I made above is correct still remains to be seen, prices moving beyond 72 would confirm the most recent drop upon the release stellar earnings as another instance of blatant, grievous manipulation that characterizes wall street.

I'd be happy with prices back to the mid-60s.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Pop2mollys said:

Me likes the size (200GW) but not so much the ASP of the first plants.  $5B for 7.2GW is about $0.69/W.  Don't see much profit for the CN4 at those prices, sorry.  On the other hand the Saudis are getting dome dirt cheap power considering the low system prices and the long PPAs of 25 years.  Could someone calculate the LCOE on this?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pvinsight shows a jump in poly prices this week.  This should be good for DQ.  Module and cell prices are also stable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, Mark said:

Great news, goodbye Solar World, glad to see you finally go!

Nice conclusion.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, dydo said:

Nice conclusion.

And now.. how does SPWR pay for this?  Secondary seems like it wouldn't make any sense... convertible debt?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Mark said:

And now.. how does SPWR pay for this?  Secondary seems like it wouldn't make any sense... convertible debt?

One dying company buying a dead company.  How does this news attract people to the tune of 11% increase in stock price?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Mark said:

And now.. how does SPWR pay for this?  Secondary seems like it wouldn't make any sense... convertible debt?

Note the article doesn't say what the price is.  Given Solar World's financial status, SPWR is likely paying pennies for the dollar.  So even given SPWR's weak finances, I doubt they're adding much debt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/18/2018 at 6:31 PM, solarpete said:

Note the article doesn't say what the price is.  Given Solar World's financial status, SPWR is likely paying pennies for the dollar.  So even given SPWR's weak finances, I doubt they're adding much debt.

Hi all -

Isn't there a chance that JKS or CSIQ made bids?  Given that with tariffs this is now pretty much a guaranteed money maker?

 

I asked SPWR bulls, why is the stock going up.   A lot of them view this deal the sweetener added to get Sunpower excluded from the tariffs.

So if Sunpower, as crazy as it sounds, is excluded from tariffs... then suddenly they would be a viable solar player, right?  Best of both worlds!  Manufacture in the Philippines & benefit from tariffs.. just as FSLR does.

Curious how others here see this playing out.

Thanks-

Matt

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



×