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GCL and Zhonghuan raising wafer prices on strong demand:
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190130/960376.shtml

Big question is if Longi will follow suit.  At current wafer prices Longi still makes a profit while GCL incurs humongous losses.  Zhonghuan (second largest mono wafer maker) is presumably about break-even.  Longi may very well decide to keep prices steady and forego higher profits in order to keep the heat on GCL and Zhonghuan.  Here's where you can monitor what Longi is doing:
 https://en.longi-silicon.com/index.php?m=content&c=index&a=lists&catid=299

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Maybe.  But more likely it's just profit-taking from the huge run we've had over the past few weeks.

At least I hope it's just that....

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On 1/30/2019 at 2:42 PM, Klothilde said:

GCL and Zhonghuan raising wafer prices on strong demand:
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190130/960376.shtml

Big question is if Longi will follow suit.  At current wafer prices Longi still makes a profit while GCL incurs humongous losses.  Zhonghuan (second largest mono wafer maker) is presumably about break-even.  Longi may very well decide to keep prices steady and forego higher profits in order to keep the heat on GCL and Zhonghuan.  Here's where you can monitor what Longi is doing:
 https://en.longi-silicon.com/index.php?m=content&c=index&a=lists&catid=299

Apparently Longi not raising mono-wafer prices, you guys:
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190202/961212.shtml

Means they want to keep GCL making horrendous losses.  This is also horrible for anybody focusing on multi modules you guys.  Now they have to pay GCL more for the multi wafers but cannot sell the modules at a higher price because Longi is depressing the price for high-efficiency modules.  I'm not going no name no one here but you guys should know who focuses on multi.

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Great news everyone, AOC pushing for U.S. to be Carbon Neutral by 2030:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/07/aoc-just-updated-her-massive-green-new-deal--heres-whats-in-it.html?recirc=taboolainternal

This would bring unprecedent growth in Solar PV in the U.S. let's all hope the fat, greedy orangutan is replaced in 2020!

Edited by tupapa

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1 hour ago, Klothilde said:

"China Domestic Demand Shows a Clear Slow Down..."
http://pvinsights.com/ 

 

That makes sense as grid parity is not in place in China. That also suggests why price declines are in store. PV insights is suggesting module prices have fallen. There are 2 good articles on Guangfu today.

 

The first covers current market analysis and utilization rates. They suggest that utilization rates are still far below the pre 531 announcement although they did up tick recently in China.  

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190213/962366.shtml

The overall utilization rate of production capacity in the Chinese market continued to rise, reaching 83% - but still not returning to the level before the "531 New Deal"

 

This second article is a good article on the details of costs that China needs to hit for grid parity. It will give you an idea that the prices will drop significantly over the next 2 years. They are suggesting an average cost to build of 3.25RMB or $0.49(USD) for Grid parity. Depending on regions some are lower costs and some are higher in cost. They are suggesting the current cost to build is ~4.2RMB. They are suggesting a 28% system cost price decline is in order to meet grid parity.


These suggest that the solar costs are going to have to further drop. Current costs of $0.63(USD) will fall to $0.49(USD). The current module cost I estimate at  $0.26. That  is 41% of the total cost. A 28% price drop on the module cost is $0.0728. This places China needing a target module cost of $0.18-$0.19 come 2020 and later. That is where China hits grid parity and solar PV demand will explode.

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190213/962352-2.shtml

Definition of Parity online
“The cost of PV system for I, II, and III resource areas requires 3.21, 3.37, and 3.28 yuan/W, respectively; the median of all regions, the threshold for national PV affordable Internet projects is 3.25 yuan/W.”

Analysis of the cost reduction of PV parity online
Based on the above parameters, the conclusions that can be calculated are: 1 The cost of the power station system is 4.2 yuan / W; 2 The internal rate of return of the project is 7.14%.

Core conclusion: According to this standard, the current national photovoltaic ground power station system cost still needs to drop by 28% compared with the median level of 3.25 yuan/W national parity online.
That is to say, the cost of photovoltaic power plant system will drop by 28% at the current level, and the country will implement large-scale (more than 50%) low-cost Internet access on the power generation side.
 

 

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On 2/13/2019 at 6:58 AM, Klothilde said:

"China Domestic Demand Shows a Clear Slow Down..."
http://pvinsights.com/ 

 

Chinese city wants 700 MW of new solar within two years: The announcement from the city authorities comes in the wake of the central government’s call for local authorities, electricity companies and big lenders to remove roadblocks to what it designated ‘grid-parity’ PV projects, by which it meant installations which did not benefit from central subsidies but which could be encouraged by local incentives.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/02/14/chinese-city-wants-700-mw-of-new-solar-within-two-years/

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China blocks new solar in 3 NW regions amid overcapacity fears
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-solarpower/china-blocks-new-solar-in-3-nw-regions-amid-overcapacity-fears-idUSKCN1Q404G

This is horrible.  These are 3 of the sunniest provinces in China where PV power is most competitive and most suitable for the new unsubsidized regime.  Check out the irradiance map, this takes away most of the sunny regions and leaves the grey and rainy regions where PV is way more expensive. http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/library/renewable-energy-resources/world/asia/solar-asia/solar-china.shtml

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Not so horrible, although aggravating.  The basic problem is, China can build new solar projects faster than it can connect them to its grid.  Generally, that's a good problem to have.

The transmission issues will be solved--China has separate initiatives to address those.  In the meantime, this is just more proof that the trend is towards more solar, not less.

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