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GCL revises first half 2018 earnings. 30.2M Yuan same as last year. They indicate they have shifted to 50% overseas business up from 14%.

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20180712/912269.shtml

On the evening of July 11, GCL Integratedreleased the 2018 semi-annual performance forecast amendment announcement, which revised the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies from January to June 2018 to the profit of 2041. Ten thousand yuan to 30.22 million yuan, basically the same as the same period of the previous year. Prior to April 28, GCL Integrated had expected net profit for the first half of the year to be -10,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan.

The sales ratio in overseas markets has rapidly increased from 14% in the first half of 2017 to the current 50%.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, SCSolar said:

GCL revises first half 2018 earnings. 30.2M Yuan same as last year. They indicate they have shifted to 50% overseas business up from 14%...

That's only GCL System Integration Technology Co. Ltd, the subsidiary that produces and sells modules.
http://en.gclsi.com/

Not to be mixed up with GCL poly.  That's the company that produces wafers for 10 cents and sells them for less than 7.

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43 minutes ago, SCSolar said:

India recommending 25% tariffs on Malaysian and Chinese solar products.

https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2018/07/india-proposes-tariffs-on-china-malaysia-solar-cells.html

Would that make FSLR cost competitive in India?  Or does India have enough of it's own production? 

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Nice read from Trina on the markets.

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/pv-talk-rongfang-yin-vice-president-of-global-sales-and-marketing-at-trina

BNEF has recently said after the China policy changes that it expected PV module prices to fall 34%. What kind of solar module price declines are you expecting?

"One thing I would like to clarify is that with or without the China policy changes, our forecast for this year’s prices was a decline. For example at the start of the [module] prices would be around US$0.36/W and were expected to decline to say US$0.33/W or US$0.32/W. This was expected due to cost reductions, technology etc… 

But people have tried to say that due to the China policy changes the prices would decline by so much. What will be interesting to watch is what will be the actual impact on prices, due only to the China policy change. From my perspective, I think the China policy change will make a 15% to 18% difference to pricing by year-end.

 

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11 hours ago, SCSolar said:

Nice read from Trina on the markets.

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/pv-talk-rongfang-yin-vice-president-of-global-sales-and-marketing-at-trina

BNEF has recently said after the China policy changes that it expected PV module prices to fall 34%. What kind of solar module price declines are you expecting?

"One thing I would like to clarify is that with or without the China policy changes, our forecast for this year’s prices was a decline. For example at the start of the [module] prices would be around US$0.36/W and were expected to decline to say US$0.33/W or US$0.32/W. This was expected due to cost reductions, technology etc… 

But people have tried to say that due to the China policy changes the prices would decline by so much. What will be interesting to watch is what will be the actual impact on prices, due only to the China policy change. From my perspective, I think the China policy change will make a 15% to 18% difference to pricing by year-end.

 

1 / (1 - 15%) = 18%

1 / (1 - 18%) = 22%

So what Trina is saying is that technology progress would enable cost improvements supporting a 10% price decline during 2018 at retained GM. And then the China policy change will take around 20 percentage point of that GM. Essentially a 18-22% GM company would be willing to give up its GM to maintain sales but not more.

To me this sounds reasonable since it might be a prolonged supply-demand imbalance trough. The alternative is to run at cash cost instead (negative GM), i.e. to not retain the cash flow from the depreciation cost (at 0% GM) to cover interest expenses and hopefully some OPEX.

Of course Trina is sending a message in the details to other big players on where the price floor should be. Trina management is known for its deep knowledge and foresight in all aspects of this industry (earning it representation in industry organisations etc.).

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2 hours ago, explo said:

1 / (1 - 15%) = 18%

1 / (1 - 18%) = 22%

So what Trina is saying is that technology progress would enable cost improvements supporting a 10% price decline during 2018 at retained GM. And then the China policy change will take around 20 percentage point of that GM. Essentially a 18-22% GM company would be willing to give up its GM to maintain sales but not more.

To me this sounds reasonable since it might be a prolonged supply-demand imbalance trough. The alternative is to run at cash cost instead (negative GM), i.e. to not retain the cash flow from the depreciation cost (at 0% GM) to cover interest expenses and hopefully some OPEX.

Of course Trina is sending a message in the details to other big players on where the price floor should be. Trina management is known for its deep knowledge and foresight in all aspects of this industry (earning it representation in industry organisations etc.).

They have set a blended price target in the $0.26-$0.28 price range based on a 15-17% further price erosion from the $0.32-$0.33 ASP target the had forecast originally. That is the year end pricing. It looks based on a 30/70 blending of MonoPerc/PolyPerc that price range is close to where the ASP ranges are today.

In 2019, I might gather another 5-10% price decline as they shift more to 50/50 or 60/40 MonoPerc/PolyPerc.

 

A 5% further decline would place average PolyPerc at $0.24 and average MonoPerc at $0.28 for a blended ASP of $0.26. Currently Mono Perc in China is $0.286 average with a low of $0.27 while the ROW is $0.04 higher. Poly would have a slight ASP decline from todays lows. 

 

A 10% decline in 2019 would then drive the blended ASP to $0.2475 by the end of the year. That would place pricing at .265/.235 MonoPerc/PolyPerc.

 

If you look at the original target year end ASP of $0.32 with an 18% GM, their cost to manufacture was going to be $0.2816. That cost is above either a 5% or a 10% price decline ASP for year end 2019.  To mantain 18% GM on the $0.27 year end 2018, the blended cost at $0.23. With a $0.10 module processing cost and current Perc Cell prices, that $0.23 comes in around $0.235.  This is a $0.035 gross per watt. Currently no company shipping globally has an average Opex+Interest below $0.04/watt.

Basically this confirms that they will likely have an ASP above cash cost + depreciation.

 

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7 hours ago, Klothilde said:

This is horrible.  How come we missed it?

Goldman Sachs Puts a Grim Number on Solar Slump for This Year 😨

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-19/goldman-sachs-puts-a-grim-number-on-solar-slump-for-this-year

Trina Solar thinks differently... And they are inside the industry, unlike above mentioned ANALysts, who thinks "hypothetically", sitting on the 66-th floor in Manhattan....

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/pv-talk-rongfang-yin-vice-president-of-global-sales-and-marketing-at-trina

Edited by MVA
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12 hours ago, MVA said:

Trina Solar thinks differently... And they are inside the industry, unlike above mentioned ANALysts, who thinks "hypothetically", sitting on the 66-th floor in Manhattan....

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/pv-talk-rongfang-yin-vice-president-of-global-sales-and-marketing-at-trina

By the way, Trina halting production and halving wages at their Changzhou factory.  Business is booming indeed baby.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade-tensions/Trade-war-shuts-the-lights-at-China-s-solar-panel-makers

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https://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-solar-manufacturers-raise-first-half-output-despite-capacity-cap-association-2018-7?yptr=yahoo&r=UK&IR=T

 

China's solar sector has been growing rapidly after local governments commissioned hundreds of new projects to meet the country's aggressive renewable energy targets.

But the state planning agency said in June that it would cut subsidies for new projects and cap capacity additions at 30 gigawatts (GW) for this year, down from a record 53 GW in 2017, as it tried to "optimize" the pace of construction amid overcapacity fears.

Despite the policy adjustments, manufacturers continued to ramp up production in the first half of 2018, even though total installed generation capacity remained unchanged compared to the same period of last year, China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) Vice-Chairman Wang Bohua said.

"The solar power sector should strengthen self-discipline whether domestically or overseas, and it should refrain from false propaganda and from price-gouging cut-throat competition," Wang told an industry conference.

He said the production of silicon wafers - a key solar component - rose 39 percent year-on-year to 50 GW in the first half, with solar module output rising to 39 GW, up 22 percent.

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Apparently Shenzen has withdrawn from buying the 3 power plants from CSIQ due to failure to get regulatory approval.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/08/08/business/08reuters-usa-trade-china-energy.html

BEIJING (Reuters) - Shenzhen Energy Group Co Ltd (000027.SZ) said on Wednesday it has ditched a plan to buy three U.S. solar power stations after failing to get approval from a U.S. government panel amid growing trade tensions between the world’s top two economies.

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48 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

GTM Research forecasting global solar market to fall to 85.2GW in 2018
https://www.pv-tech.org/news/gtm-research-forecasting-global-solar-market-to-fall-to-85.2gw-in-2018

Also interesting to see how the market grows to 120GW in 2020 but stays flat from there on.  Looks like they haven't drunk the grid parity Kool-Aid yet.

Something fishy about that report. They say they expect China to do 28.5GW for 2018, yet they acknowledge $24.3GW was installed in the first half and that DG and top runner is ongoing. That forcast is in odds with some of the comments in the article of 

 

"

However, PV Tech recently reported official China PV installations figures for the first half of 2018, that new solar PV installations in the country reached 24.3GW in the first half of 2018.

China installation programs regarding ‘Top Runner’ and ‘Poverty Alleviation’, which are primarily carried-out in the second half of the year have not been curtailed, which led Rongfang Yin, vice president of Trina Solar Group, the second largest ‘Silicon Module Super League’ (SMSL) member, in an exclusive interview with PV Tech to highlight demand was still higher than many expected.

“There has been a lot of discussion within the industry on this and many expect PV installations to total around 30GW this year. In my opinion given the different markets including residential in my view we are looking at a 35GW to 37GW market," commented Yin."

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I guess the US is planning to power things with Trump gas.  Or maybe a wind turbine that sits in front of his mouth.

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6 hours ago, Klothilde said:

GCL poly warning net profit for H1 to drop 60-70% vs. year ago:
http://gcl-poly.todayir.com/attachment/2018081320020100003232140_en.pdf

Wafers sold for 11.1 cts in average in H1 according to PVInsights.  In Q3 they are around 7 cts so far.  Can you imagine how juicy GCL's H2 numbers will be?

 

As a U.S. investor not investing in foreign markets or GCL, I can only imagine how "juicy" CSIQ and JKS margins and numbers will be.😎

 

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Oh this calls for a juicy discussion.  However I'm out with the girls tonight.  So you think CSIQ and JKS will reap 15-25% GM while GCL will enjoy -25%   GM.  The question is for how long.  Forever maybe?

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Reading some of the IEEE Spectrum magazines that have been piling up on my desk, I came across an article from March 2018:  "Building a Safer, Denser Lithium-ion Battery."  (Checking online, it's available by subscription/membership only.  IEEE gets a little froggy with people posting proprietary content publicly, so forgive me if I don't copy/paste the whole 4 pages here.)  The upshot is a startup called Enovix is using the same photolithography methods used by the solar panel industry to produce--you guessed it, safer, denser Li-ion batteries.  And here's the quote I found most interesting:

"To fabricate the Enovix battery, we begin with a wafer of silicon that's 1 millimeter thick.  This doesn't have to be the chip-grade stuff--it can be the same low-cost material that is used to produce solar cells."

So here is another customer for solar-grade poly.  If this design takes off the way solar PV has, this completely new customer could produce a huge new demand for poly.  Enovix already has a working prototype (the founders started working on this idea back in 2007, so they've been at this for a while), and are now working on developing mass-production methods in the Philippines.

Good news for DQ, if it happens!

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2 hours ago, SolarRoof said:

Good find. The time to raze raised solar trade barriers have come after a summer with the northern hemisphere plagued by drought and wildfires.

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2 hours ago, SCSolar said:

A second Ikea store this year has had the solar panels catch fire. Bollingbrook happened in May and now Conshohocken in PA.  The Ikea in Bollingbrook used Solarworld panels.

 

 https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20120731005302/en/IKEA-Powers-up-Philadelphia-Area-Solar-Energy-Systems-Philadelphia-Area

This will give Breitbart a chance to refresh their "solar cooks birds mid-flight" article they put out every few months with some new ammo.

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