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On 3/22/2018 at 12:57 PM, tupapa said:

IT wouldn´t surprise me if the most recent 350 M stock issuance was some form of accumulation by some financial sindicate.

1- They bash the stock upon great earnings, retail investors panick and sell, but somebody buys everything at 42.

2- JP Morgan issues the downgrade to get more traders to panick sell.

3- Daqo issues 350 Million of new stock at 42 and hands it over to some sindicate, perhaps even JP Morgan themselves.

4- There is no more supply, price can continue its merry way upward, JP MORGAN and other sindicates now own a stock they purchased at CIRCA 3.5 PE

 

 

Daqo doing pretty well so far, the market is tanking but Daqo showing strenght, this is encouraging since it shows buyers are making use of market weakness to load up on Daqo and they are being forced to bid up prices due to the lack of supply.

Whether the assessment I made above is correct still remains to be seen, prices moving beyond 72 would confirm the most recent drop upon the release stellar earnings as another instance of blatant, grievous manipulation that characterizes wall street.

Edited by tupapa

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7 hours ago, Klothilde said:

China new PV installations to shrink to 40-45GWp in 2018, says CPIA
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20180322PD201.html

WTF?  Why is the Chinese PV association spreading doom & gloom?  China better install more than that otherwise we're all screwed.

I wouldn't call that doom and gloom.  The JKS transcript says the same thing, but they also say those numbers may be conservative, AND they say emerging markets are coming on strong.  Their bottom line was while the pace may be slow, the future for the entire solar industry still looks bright.

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2 hours ago, tupapa said:

Daqo doing pretty well so far, the market is tanking but Daqo showing strenght, this is encouraging since it shows buyers are making use of market weakness to load up on Daqo and they are being forced to bid up prices due to the lack of supply.

Whether the assessment I made above is correct still remains to be seen, prices moving beyond 72 would confirm the most recent drop upon the release stellar earnings as another instance of blatant, grievous manipulation that characterizes wall street.

I'd be happy with prices back to the mid-60s.

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2 hours ago, Pop2mollys said:

Me likes the size (200GW) but not so much the ASP of the first plants.  $5B for 7.2GW is about $0.69/W.  Don't see much profit for the CN4 at those prices, sorry.  On the other hand the Saudis are getting dome dirt cheap power considering the low system prices and the long PPAs of 25 years.  Could someone calculate the LCOE on this?

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Pvinsight shows a jump in poly prices this week.  This should be good for DQ.  Module and cell prices are also stable.

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56 minutes ago, Mark said:

Great news, goodbye Solar World, glad to see you finally go!

Nice conclusion.

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6 minutes ago, dydo said:

Nice conclusion.

And now.. how does SPWR pay for this?  Secondary seems like it wouldn't make any sense... convertible debt?

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5 minutes ago, Mark said:

And now.. how does SPWR pay for this?  Secondary seems like it wouldn't make any sense... convertible debt?

One dying company buying a dead company.  How does this news attract people to the tune of 11% increase in stock price?

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2 hours ago, Mark said:

And now.. how does SPWR pay for this?  Secondary seems like it wouldn't make any sense... convertible debt?

Note the article doesn't say what the price is.  Given Solar World's financial status, SPWR is likely paying pennies for the dollar.  So even given SPWR's weak finances, I doubt they're adding much debt.

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On 4/18/2018 at 6:31 PM, solarpete said:

Note the article doesn't say what the price is.  Given Solar World's financial status, SPWR is likely paying pennies for the dollar.  So even given SPWR's weak finances, I doubt they're adding much debt.

Hi all -

Isn't there a chance that JKS or CSIQ made bids?  Given that with tariffs this is now pretty much a guaranteed money maker?

 

I asked SPWR bulls, why is the stock going up.   A lot of them view this deal the sweetener added to get Sunpower excluded from the tariffs.

So if Sunpower, as crazy as it sounds, is excluded from tariffs... then suddenly they would be a viable solar player, right?  Best of both worlds!  Manufacture in the Philippines & benefit from tariffs.. just as FSLR does.

Curious how others here see this playing out.

Thanks-

Matt

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Hello, I am new to this forum. I have several questions for anyone who is willing to answer: first, is it economically viable to purchase land in the american southwest at super cheap prices and build an extremely small PV solar farm on the order of 100kw? What is a guesstimate cost in price per watt of an installation of this size? And what would be income per year? The numbers I've been seeing range between $2.30 and $3.50 per watt (quite a range). And income would be around $9000-$10000 per year? Thanks to anyone who can offer input! 

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On 5/7/2018 at 7:20 AM, Klothilde said:

Hanergy launching its solar umbrella, the Humbrella:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hanergy-launches-innovative-thin-film-solar-powered-humbrella-300642714.html

Will this shield the company from future shareholder lawsuits?

Ha ha.  well.. that thing better be strongly protected from the wind.  

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On 3/22/2018 at 6:57 PM, tupapa said:

I´ve read a number of books, most of them have been a waste of money and time. The best book I´ve ever read and the only one I recommend reading is Richard Wyckoffs Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks, published in the early 1930s, pretty much everything I use for trading is found within its pages.

This particular trade is a rather straightforward setup;

42 is approximately the 50% of the most recent long term upwave (20-72), it is holding so buyers are supporting price, hence the probabilities point towards another upwave. If however buyers fail and sellers push prices below this critical 50% ret. level, the stock is in trouble and I don´t wanna be anywhere near it.

A part from all this technical stuff, my favourite confirmation for entering a trade is if a brokerage house or reputable institution issues some form of statement. For instance if JP Morgan downgrades a stock (e.g. DAQO), it means they are probably accumulating shares and they are luring retail investors into selling.

IT wouldn´t surprise me if the most recent 350 M stock issuance was some form of accumulation by some financial sindicate.

1- They bash the stock upon great earnings, retail investors panick and sell, but somebody buys everything at 42.

2- JP Morgan issues the downgrade to get more traders to panick sell.

3- Daqo issues 350 Million of new stock at 42 and hands it over to some sindicate, perhaps even JP Morgan themselves.

4- There is no more supply, price can continue its merry way upward, JP MORGAN and other sindicates now own a stock they purchased at CIRCA 3.5 PE

 

Im not the type to blow his own trumpet but the most recent price action in daqo shows such a blatant case of outright manipulation that I feel compelled to point it out once more.

Jpmorgan downgrade a 6 PE ratio stock, they then accumulate all the stock issuance, once they are done the stock flies.

Watch out for the buy ratings, next stop 120, of course I remain 100% invested.

Edited by tupapa

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Tongwei signs major 55,000MT polysilicon supply deal with LONGi
https://www.pv-tech.org/news/tongwei-signs-major-55000mt-polysilicon-supply-deal-with-longi
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20180523/899697.shtml

OMG the poly glut is coming you guys.  We are heading towards $10 poly.  Now get out your calculators and do your DQ crunchies.

Also check out the guangfu post to see how Longi structures their contracts.  Prices are negotiated on a monthly basis.  So don't you let anybody tell you the DQ deal with Longi is fixed price you guys.

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Well, I guess the news that FSLR was meeting in London with ROTH yesterday didn't amount to anything.  Anyone else notice the influx of tinkering with FSLR lately?  Starting with those upgrades ahead of earnings, then the upgrade after earnings, then that volume and price spike the other day (on a rumor of buyout... more like a rumor of a rumor of a buyout) and then Monday with the news that FSLR execs were meeting with ROTH in London.  Lots of jerking around.  

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All other solars that I follow (JKS, CSIQ, RUN, and DQ) have also been similarly "jerked around."  I think it's just the usual daily manic-depressive mood swing of the market towards solars.  One day they're going to be the salvation of mankind, the next everyone's going broke.

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What is wrong with Chinese solar stocks today?  I see large drop on high volume on DQ, CSIQ and JKS without any news.  Anyone can speculate on this recent drop (besides the usual poly and wafer price drops and potential trade war)?

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I noticed the same thing.  As for why, I'll just note this seems to happen every so often for no reason--all Chinese solars tank.  Then after a few days or weeks, they all rise, again for no reason.

At least this time I have some buying power in reserve--DQ is getting tastier the lower it goes!

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Thanks.  JKS seems cheap at this price ($2 below the shares just issued not too long ago).  I just added some more JKS and dipped my toes in DQ for a quick trade.  Good luck.

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Yes, JKS is getting quite cheap--or is it?  They're closing in on a 52-week low, and they have not yet reported 1Q earnings.  And their trailing 12-month earnings are pitiful.  When they do report, if it's another dime or so (and what would be the catalyst for better numbers?), I can see them dropping further.

I have some, but I'm not buying any more until they start showing they can actually make money again.

RUN is showing remarkable strength.  I'm looking to buy more trading positions on any dips.  Missed getting a buy filled on this morning's dip by 2 cents!  Sigh....

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CSIQ earning shows the margin on modules was good.  The margin on projects was what depressed its overall margin.  JKS sold its power business and concentrates mostly on modules.  If it has the module margin similar to that of CSIQ, its earning should be good.  That is the hope at least.  Also, now you can get it $2 less than the bargain someone just got it not too long ago.  Also, the poly prices have been coming down quite a bit lately.  This should benefit module makers, unless module prices come down faster, which I hope not.

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