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8 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

Another push for FSLR and SPWR from Travis.


Got to give it to him on being a fan to both companies.

That one is more than two weeks old. Maybe you're thinking of this one as his latest "praise my US solar stock holdings and bash every other solar stock" attempt to convince himself and everyone else that his position is good.


His articles become Yahoo MB style as he makes much less fact finding effort on names he don't hold (he is clearly inept in finding anything good about competitors to his holding despite that it is very unlikely that no competitor has something good about it) and sometimes is plain wrong on them and then he selects between the facts he found on the names he hold to pick only the cherries and then cook it together in a flawed story that only serves a money losing purpose.


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9 hours ago, odyd said:

Suniva, a purchase of Shunfeng, is bankrupt.


Again the US side (despite being Chinese owned and funded) blame Chinese imports. Eh?

US PV panel prices were much higher than world market prices for a long time due to the tariffs on the Chinese imports. That forced or incentivized capacity build out in Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam from which US companies now can import PV panels cheaply since they don't have to pay tariffs on those and as this South East Asia capacity ramped up during 2016 the US PV panel price crashed during 2H16. Everybody knows this and even the big Chinese exporters are hurt by it in the same way as the tiny US producers and the imports from China to US crashed as well in 2H16. Below it is clear that the comment from China (although this Chinese company is one of the crazier ones) is much more fact focused.


Despite Shunfeng’s majority ownership, Suniva’s chapter 11 bankruptcy filing speaks of Chinese manufacturers introducing a “flood” of cheap, subsidized PV cells and modules, and asks for trade relief in the form of higher trade duties or restrictions on the quantity of imports. In fact, Suniva states that the most important use of its DIP financing is to prosecute the trade case.

It is not surprising that Shunfeng’s explanation is somewhat different, declaring that “the business of Suniva has been severely impacted due to the continuous import of solar modules from other photovoltaic manufacturers in southeast Asia at a decreasing cost”, and certainly not asking for higher tariffs on Chinese products.


Getting back to facts this development is very good. Now US can enjoy cheap solar like the rest of the world, except China which retaliated forcing domestic producers to use expensive domestic poly for domestic shipments while they can still enjoy cheap poly imports for their exports.

Time to end the trade war? US is just losing now. It lost the important (high tech) part of the value-chain, the polysilicon manufacturing, to save an irrelevant (low tech) one, panel assembly. China is still winning the war on poly domination which has been its strategy all the time (evident by the fact that it is sacrificing margins of its wafer, cell, panel and PV plant producers/builders to help boost the margin of its poly producers). FBR poly tech giant Norwegian REC has lost massively on its US bet to place its poly plants in the US and is now betting on China instead, building a big plant there in Yulin which will ramp to production in 2H17. The US/Japan JV Hemlock had to shut down plants in US which they had invested billions in. All to please a crazy German guy. There might still be time to save these two US polysilicon technology giants, but its running out. The old MEMC, then SUNE and now SEMI is also getting competition from China in the high purity poly (semiconductor) space. Massive US values with great competitive position and high moats were put at risk and basically lost to gain something irrelevant that a German guy whined about and that was never gained since if you are not competitive at it you can't slap tariffs on the entire world to solve that.

Don't forget BK:ed GTAT either. GTAT, Hemlock (DOW), REC, AMAT, MEMC (SEMI). All these US high tech giants basically exported all their high tech solar products or manufacturing equipment to China and fell victims of the trade war because this German guy (river side castle builder Asbeck CEO of SolarWorld) had set up a non-cost efficient panel assembly plant in Ohio and started to focus on the opportunity of the law rather than technology.

Someone should write a book about this the biggest trade war of our time when it and its consequences are concluded. How much damage to the planet (e.g. number of species extinctions) could have been avoided if the planets two biggest, without competition, totally dominating, energy consumers in the world had not made such big efforts to make solar energy more expensive to deploy their countries (at the same time as they tried to make it cheap, what a waste of money to pull in two opposite directions) at a time when urgent climate problem remedies are needed? Time to re-write international trade law?


Edited by explo
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54 minutes ago, odyd said:

SUniva is asking Trump for $0.78 per watt on all imported modules. SUniva is bankrupt and owned by Shunfeng.


Wow. Chinese Suntech (bought after BK by Shunfeng) had set up panel manufacturing in US that went BK after the cell tariffs were introduced. Now the "same family" is asking for trade barriers. They want US companies to pay double the international PV panel price.

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