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On 2017-01-06 at 8:31 AM, odyd said:

It sounds like Comtec sold wafer factory to Longi, wasn't Comtec a supplier of SunPower?

Now Longi is in direct competition with own client, I suppose not so different than GCL Systems.

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20170104PD204.html

Interesting. The SPWR and Comtec partnership is likely struggling in this market were p-type mono PERC have become very cheap.

 

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On 2017-01-06 at 8:33 AM, odyd said:

And sale of FBR production to GCL by SUNEQ, nice new year sortings

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/sunedison-gets-greenlight-to-close-us150-sale-to-gcl-poly

Also very interesting. My impression is that US (REC and SEMI) where a lot ahead of China in FBR tech. Now China gets to pick it up on the low.

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Q4 2016 CCs are on their way.  

How much ASPs have dropped in Q4 vs expectations?   Will some CN solars will be reporting losses?  Certainly CSIQ has been selling downstream operations.  And CSIQ is pre-booked for q1 2017 - Does that mean they'll be getting 2016 Q3 avg prices.  Somehow their average ASPs were a fair bit higher than the pvinsights.com ASPs in Q3.

Also there have been new announcements from China about changing FIT reduction dates & amounts.  I wonder if those will improve short term demand and put a floor under ASPs.

ps:  according to the CS reports, spot ASPs for multi modules were down 8% Q4 2016.  Seemed liked a good part of that was near the end.

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Looks like module spot prices have stabilized for the past couple weeks.  

Does anyone here think that ASPs may have found a bottom & the glut is now over?

Matt

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Today is Scott Pruitt day.  It'll be interesting to see how the solar stocks trade.

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Isn't this really big news?

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/01/18/china-suspends-104-construction-coal-power-projects/

China suspending 104 massive coal plants?   It'll take a whole lot of solar installations to equal those.  This seems like very big very good news for clean energy.

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What does this do for the ASP

China is a catchall for domestic manufacturing. 100GW currently is available. If the margins are small, it has no benefit for any of the companies. ASPs will not come back. It may stabilize but will not go up. The only win is to lower costs. However as discussed elsewhere the forecast to drop 4 cents from 29 to 25, has a three-years' timeline.

The mechanism for ASP is not in control of companies. While they will not sell to lose, they will sell to force others off the market. 

The chances are that for next three years companies will have 5 to 15% margins, perhaps except Jinko, this spells low to no earnings. Canadian can collect on plant sales, lower debt levels.  It may receive a lot of value from Japan, where I see projects to be sold to yieldco. 

 

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This summary provides me with an opinion how shutting coal production may only allow for more existing renewable energy sources join the grid and not to remain underutilized. Jinko's plants were about 10 to 20% underutilized on average. 

Things are not as clear

http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/environment/china-s-monstrous-wind-and-solar-projects-most-of-it-is-wasted/article/484006

 

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1 hour ago, odyd said:

This summary provides me with an opinion how shutting coal production may only allow for more existing renewable energy sources join the grid and not to remain underutilized. Jinko's plants were about 10 to 20% underutilized on average. 

Things are not as clear

http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/environment/china-s-monstrous-wind-and-solar-projects-most-of-it-is-wasted/article/484006

 

This is a solarzoom article that is along the lines of the digitaljournal article.

http://www.solarzoom.com/article-94552-1.html

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