odyd

Solar News

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JKS is said to make over $4 EPS in 2017 as well as this year, so there is profit out there for some,  As Solar becomes more main stream line due to not requiring subsidies, perhaps they will be given higher multiples ? presently a multiple of down to the 4 range is a bit ridiculous.  just a multiple expansion  could lift the PPS

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58 minutes ago, SolarRoof said:

GS initiated coverage on GLBL with a $9 price target.

Thanks Roof. Is this news correct though ? A neutral rating with $9 target ?

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That's what the release said.  For some reason, I can no longer paste links into these messages.

You can't? what happens when you try?

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, odyd said:

That's point BIPV made. If you have 11% GM on manufacturing that is a net zero game as the manufacturing carries the OPEX. You add solar plant sales they produce net income.

But I thought you said that even with plant sales, you're only looking for $1.5 yearly EPS for 2017?  What would increase that in 2018?  Increase in profit margin on either modules or plants, or both?  Why would decreased costs not be accompanied by decreased module ASP and plant selling price, which is the trend now?

I'm not trying to be argumentative just for the sake of being so--I'm wondering if I need to reevaluate my basic premise for staying with this sector.  So please convince me I'm wrong when I now fear there may not even be any long-term growth here anymore.  At least not growth in the share price of these companies.

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19 minutes ago, SolarRoof said:

Usually, when I have my cursor in the message field, "paste" is greyed out.  Just tried it again, and it worked.  Likely something I'm doing wrong on my end...

http://baseballnewssource.com/markets/goldman-sachs-group-inc-begins-coverage-on-terraform-global-inc-glbl/79514/

Thanks Roof. I too saw that link, but was not sure about its authenticity. I do not see it anywhere else.

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/stockresearch/updown

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9 hours ago, sac_solar said:

JKS is said to make over $4 EPS in 2017 as well as this year, so there is profit out there for some,  As Solar becomes more main stream line due to not requiring subsidies, perhaps they will be given higher multiples ? presently a multiple of down to the 4 range is a bit ridiculous.  just a multiple expansion  could lift the PPS

Those earnings estimates are not reflective of the current and future market. Looking at Q2, Jinko made $26M gross from projects and netted $42M as a company. Without power revenues earnings would be far less. This year the power revenues gross  profit will be close to $95M on revenues of $160M with 60% gross margins. That places $1 in EPS from Jinkos  module business this year. Most of that module profit is gone based on their Q3 guidance.

Jinko  indicated that the ASP is going to drop in the low teens. That drop is from a price of $0.55 and 18% margins in Q2. In Q3 the guidance based on Jinko's comments  is $0.48 with 16% margins(midrange). This is $34-$35M lower gross profit that earnings is based on. Q2 had $42M net income. If the Q3 guidance happened in Q2, then after the reduced gross from the modules they would have had  $7.5M net income in Q2. That would not be considered good at a stock price of $20.

Heading into the winter, Jinko will have more curtailment and lower power generation numbers than summertime quarters. You can expect 30% less gross profit than Q2 from projects. This is $8M lower gross. You are now looking at Jinko being near break even in Q4.

If past is prologue, do not expect a sudden uptick in ASP of any significance through 2017.  One might expect a lower ASP in Q4 for those with major focus in the U.S.

 

Yet another winter is hitting solars. It will be a  milder winter than the last time and a shorter recovery time.

Edited by SCSolar
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It's China vs China for solar modules market share in India (From Bridge to India)

Chinese module suppliers increased their share of the Indian solar PV market, which added a total capacity of 3.6 GW in the past 12 months (refer), to 75%, up from around 50% in the previous 12 months. In contrast, the share of Chinese suppliers in the US market is believed to be less than 30%. Other international and domestic suppliers increased their overall sales volume in India but saw their market share halve from 24% to 12% and from 26% to 13% respectively.

Existing Chinese majors have maintained their market share but the new Chinese companies have taken a significant share away from Indian and other international suppliers

Module supply glut in China may lead to even more Chinese suppliers focussing on the Indian market with aggressive pricing

It is a buyer’s market for Indian project developers despite major increase in demand

8 out of top 10 module suppliers in the Indian market are now from China as against just 4 out of top 10 in the previous year. The remaining 2 names include First Solar (USA) and Waaree (India). While early movers Trina Solar and Canadian Solar have managed to maintain their market share and retain top positions, the big change is significant pick up in market share by other Chinese suppliers including JA Solar, GCL Poly, Hanwha, BYD, Talesun and Risen. These companies had a very marginal presence in the market previously but now have a combined market share of 32%. 

Shipments for major non-Chinese suppliers such as First Solar, Tata Power Solar and Vikram Solar grew in volumes but respective market shares have come down drastically.

Going forward, we expect the Chinese module companies to dominate the market notwithstanding the Indian government’s push for Make in India and the imminent announcement of a new manufacturing policy for the sector (refer). A mix of factors including local supply glut and falling prices (refer) means that the Chinese companies will compete hard for a growing share in the Indian market. The possibility of other mid-sized Chinese suppliers entering the market with aggressive pricing also cannot be ruled out.
Indian suppliers are expected to maintain a market share of 10-12%, broadly proportional to capacity set aside for Domestic Content Requirement (DCR). However, we expect a churn in the domestic supplier market shares once Adani’s 1.2 GW manufacturing facility becomes operational.

The big beneficiary of falling prices and increasing competition between module suppliers is obviously the Indian solar market. Project developers are in a sweet spot as they are in a buyer’s market despite increasing Indian demand. They will be relieved with falling prices, which will serve to grow the appetite of local investors. 

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