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13 hours ago, MVA said:

 

EU officially ends MIP for Chinese solar imports

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/08/31/eu-ends-mip-against-chinese/

Finally. Five lost years for the planet in terms of EU effort to heavily roll out solar.

It will mean lower ASPs. CN players sold from Vietnamese and Thai factories to EU at artificially above global ASPs. Now these factories will sell to lower ASP market India and the CN factories (that we know makes the most competitive) will again serve the now more competitive but also more relevant EU market. From link above:

Meanwhile, in July, Taiwan-based TrendForce said that if the MIP does expire, Vietnamese and Thai suppliers will fill the gap left in the Indian market by Chinese exporters, which will again concentrate on the EU market. Under this scenario, competition would be intensified, it said, thus driving down module prices, and potentially stimulating growth of non-subsidy PV projects.

In total I think this is good as China factories found a new big market that is coming out of an install breather now that China market will take an install breather. Inventories in China can be digested more quickly to avoid complete ASP crash in China.

From the perspective of meeting climate your goals and not being protective of a non-competitive domestic industry this is the smart thing to do if you want to be opportunistic about transitioning your energy generation system both not too late and not too expensively. China did a similar thing and started their great install when ASPs in China had fallen extremely low (from prior levels). In the end they rose to become the highest (non-tariffed) in the world and they decided to pull the brakes again. It seems EU gets a chance to be opportune with a large roll out after taking the big cost of kickstarting the industry. The big question is if US has any interest in timely transition at opportune low cost. They or China in a second wave might gobble things up once EU have had their fill.

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I think there's a lot of wishful thinking in place here.  People are longing for some kind of market change that will spur runaway demand and will make margins and stock prices rise big time.  Me, I like to look at things more rationally.  MIP gone?  No big deal since Europe was sourcing stuff from south-east Asia anyway which was only a coupla pennies more expensive than CN.  Those coupla pennies in cost savings translate to 5% of system cost.  Yawn.  I'm staying in bed folks.  Wake me up when there's a profit warning or bankruptcy.

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2 hours ago, Klothilde said:

I think there's a lot of wishful thinking in place here.  People are longing for some kind of market change that will spur runaway demand and will make margins and stock prices rise big time.  Me, I like to look at things more rationally.  MIP gone?  No big deal since Europe was sourcing stuff from south-east Asia anyway which was only a coupla pennies more expensive than CN.  Those coupla pennies in cost savings translate to 5% of system cost.  Yawn.  I'm staying in bed folks.  Wake me up when there's a profit warning or bankruptcy.

Klothilde, do you know if Europe still charges VAT (something near 20%?) on panels?  

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I don't think there's a uniform VAT system across all EU countries.  My take is that most countries charge VAT if you buy the panel for private consumption and don't charge it in B2B transactions.

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158GW of PERC in 2022 forecast

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/09/07/perc-market-to-reach-158-gw-by-2022/

 

In a report, WisolPro says the global market demand for passivated emitter rear contact (PERC) cells will reach 158 GW by 2022, up from 52 GW in 2018, while the available capacity will be 168 GW, up from 64 GW in 2018.

In its analysis, the firm further estimates that PERC’s growth in market share will reach a high in 2022 and then level out. P-type PERC technology, meanwhile, is likely to replace p-type multi-crystalline technology. By 2022, says WisolPro, P-type multi will have nearly vanished from the market. Other technologies, such as heterojunction (HJT), or n-type PERT, will be mostly unaffected by this development, it adds.

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Jink Power submits lowests bid in Jordan at $0.02488

 

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/09/10/jordans-round-3-pv-auction-opening-lowest-bid-of-0-02488-usd-kwh-for-50-mw-projects/

The results of Jordan’s Round 3 solar PV auction have been announced. Jinko Power (HK) Company Limited submitted the lowest bid of US$0.02488/kWh. Jinko, along with two other companies, are now in pole position to be awarded projects

 

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Looks like 25% tarrifs is back on in india

 

https://mercomindia.com/supreme-court-allows-government-safeguard-duty-solar/

 

ndia will soon begin with the imposition of safeguard duty on solar cells and modules which had been put on hold by the government. In a significant order, the Supreme Court of India has made it clear that safeguard duty will be levied effective July 30, 2018. Through this interim order, the apex court of the country has nullified the Orissa High Court’s stay order on levy of safeguard duty on imported solar cells and modules.

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More long-term good news:

Solar Farms Without Subsidy Sprout from Gloomy Britain to Italy

Bloomberg article--Google it to get the link (it's 4 lines long, I can't paste links here for some odd reason, and I'm too lazy to type it by hand).

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Here is a nice article that makes a case for accelerated depreciation for the solar manufacturers. It covers some history equipment turnover rates and costs. It has some interesting data on throughput and cost drops of technology for diamond wire and  PERC for migrating to CN produced fab vs Meyer Burger.

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20180911/927140-3.shtml

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Seems as though the addition 10GW of unsubsidized projects that China was allegedly to be rolling out (per PV Magazine) wasn't true... anyone read anything elsewhere in regards to that rumor?

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Those 10GW are baloney.  2019 is shaping up to be a disappointment you guys.  China down, India down, Japan down, U.S. flat, Europe slightly up, ROW slightly up.

Where the hell is the rampant growth gonna come ftom that DQ is counting with?  Apart from a rampant growth in poly and PERC capacities I see nothing.

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Never underestimate China. The 531 was an attempt to spur cost reductions and set targets of 4RMB installed systems by 2020 fr grid parity. According to recent bids, they are now getting bids under 4RMB 2 years earlier than target. The article with many charts in Chinese has a road map of where costs are targeted to be cut to reach the achieved goals. It is a long article.

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20180918/928820.shtml

The chart below shows the expected path of PV system construction cost reduction in the second half of 2017, that is, the system cost is reduced by about 30% to 4 yuan/W in three years, and the component is about 2 yuan/W. However, under the influence of the 531 policy, Recently, the EPC winning bid price of the third batch of the top runners project is less than RMB 4/W. That is, in some projects, the 2020 cost target has been achieved two years ahead of schedule.

Although the short-term EPC price drop is largely to reduce the profit margin of all links in the industry chain (even causing some enterprises to lose money), with the popularization and application of various cost reduction technologies, the installation cost remains unchanged or even continues. In the process of decline, the profit level of the industrial chain will gradually return to a reasonable level.

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Not certain how accurate some of these numbers are, but it is clear they are overbuilt on cpacities

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20180921/929732.shtml

 

Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network News : In recent years, China's PV industry has been transformed from a typical world processing base of “two heads out” to a global PV innovation and manufacturing base in the entire industry chain.

The total capacity of silicon materials in China's provinces is about 689,735 tons, of which Xinjiang's production capacity ranks first, about 279,000 tons, accounting for 40.5%; followed by Jiangsu Province, with 168,000 tons, accounting for 25%.

China's provinces have a production capacity of 218 GW of silicon wafers, of which Jiangsu Province ranks first, with about 55 GW, accounting for 25.2%; followed by Yunnan Province, with 46 GW, accounting for 21%.

The production capacity of China's provinces is 113 GW, of which Jiangsu Province ranks first, about 47 GW, accounting for about 42%; followed by Anhui Province, about 17 GW, accounting for about 15%.

The production capacity of PV modules in China's provinces reached 151GW, of which Jiangsu Province ranked first, about 70GW, accounting for 46%; followed by Zhejiang Province, about 25GW, accounting for 16%.

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It looks like Trump's tariff stimulates drastic Yuan depreciation vs USD, which helps enormously those PV manufacturers in China, who have substantial share of sales to Export (sales out of China)... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-30/jpmorgan-says-u-s-china-tariffs-to-go-all-out-lowers-yuan-call?srnd=premium

Edited by MVA

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