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Interesting article on GTM. They are suggestion sub $14/MWhr come 2022.

 

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/by-2023-the-world-will-have-one-trillion-watts-of-installed-solar-pv-capaci#gs.nEthzzQ

 

"Bid prices will continue their downward march pretty much everywhere. More sub-2-cent PV bids are likely, both in leading low-cost markets and in emerging markets that are launching solicitations. By 2022, awarded prices as low as $14/MWh will be old news," they write in the report

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So no tariffs/MIPs in India or EU.  And possibility of this extra 10GW in China.  Anyone feeling like we've seen/are seeing the bottom?  

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15 hours ago, SCSolar said:

Interesting article on GTM. They are suggestion sub $14/MWhr come 2022.

 

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/by-2023-the-world-will-have-one-trillion-watts-of-installed-solar-pv-capaci#gs.nEthzzQ

 

"Bid prices will continue their downward march pretty much everywhere. More sub-2-cent PV bids are likely, both in leading low-cost markets and in emerging markets that are launching solicitations. By 2022, awarded prices as low as $14/MWh will be old news," they write in the report

So shipment volumes will continue to set new records.  But will this just be more "profitless prosperity?"  This might be good news for the planet--but what about our portfolios?

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2 hours ago, Mark said:

So no tariffs/MIPs in India or EU.  And possibility of this extra 10GW in China.  Anyone feeling like we've seen/are seeing the bottom?  

I sure hope so!!  It's been totally impossible to make any money swing trading the solar sector for over a month now (at least for me).  Prices cratered to their usual stupid-low levels and haven't budged much since.  This despite the fact that most are at least still profitable.  Yet everyone is priced as if they're all going bankrupt tomorrow.

I sometimes think my solar investments are God's way of teaching me patience....

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3 minutes ago, solarpete said:

I sure hope so!!  It's been totally impossible to make any money swing trading the solar sector for over a month now (at least for me).  Prices cratered to their usual stupid-low levels and haven't budged much since.  This despite the fact that most are at least still profitable.  Yet everyone is priced as if they're all going bankrupt tomorrow.

I sometimes think my solar investments are God's way of teaching me patience....

I hear ya... my trading income has gone to zero for the last several weeks.  Much of my trading money is stuck at $68 and what i had left is just sitting here doing next to nothing with this low volume summer BS.  Really hope these China rumors are confirmed, maybe that'll get things moving... would seem to perk Gordon up, given his 2 ways that he'd consider changing his FSLR view.  US tariffs haven't been extended, but trade war is ugly and also tax credits were extended.  Should make him happy.  And China isn't exactly reversing policy as he said he'd need, but adding 10GW ain't all that bad.

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2 hours ago, Mark said:

So no tariffs/MIPs in India or EU.  And possibility of this extra 10GW in China.  Anyone feeling like we've seen/are seeing the bottom?  

Great find Mark & thanks for sharing that!  How much is 10GW compared to what everybody freaked out about earlier??

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5 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Great find Mark & thanks for sharing that!  How much is 10GW compared to what everybody freaked out about earlier??

From GTM when China did the original cuts: "The changes could cut China’s capacity forecast by 40 percent, to 28.8 gigawatts from 48 gigawatts, according to GTM Research. Wood Mackenzie projects a cut of 20 gigawatts this year, down to just 30 gigawatts. Other projections put 2018 capacity closer to 35 gigawatts."

And per PV-Tech, China has installed 24.3GW in 1H2018.  

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20 minutes ago, Mark said:

From GTM when China did the original cuts: "The changes could cut China’s capacity forecast by 40 percent, to 28.8 gigawatts from 48 gigawatts, according to GTM Research. Wood Mackenzie projects a cut of 20 gigawatts this year, down to just 30 gigawatts. Other projections put 2018 capacity closer to 35 gigawatts."

 And per PV-Tech, China has installed 24.3GW in 1H2018.  

Those numbers were for full year numbers?  How much is installed in the second half normally?

 

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5 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Those numbers were for full year numbers?  How much is installed in the second half normally?

 

In 2017: 52.83 total, 24.4 of that in 1H17

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19 hours ago, Mark said:

In 2017: 52.83 total, 24.4 of that in 1H17

If this 10GW happens, then wouldn't this be a good time to buy some calls?

CSIQ & FSLR are even drifting down so the calls should be cheap.

Which company would be the most effected by this?  I guess JKS?  Also CSIQ?

Edited by sunnypease

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Yeah, need China to confirm this soon and put an end to the bleeding.  Watching FSLR bleed out on such light volume is like having teeth pulled with my kid's toy pliers.

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23 hours ago, Mark said:

Yeah, need China to confirm this soon and put an end to the bleeding. 

All the solars are quite in the green.  I wonder if it's all because of CSIQ or is the news of the China distributed solar 10GW boost seeping into the prices?

 

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12 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

All the solars are quite in the green.  I wonder if it's all because of CSIQ or is the news of the China distributed solar 10GW boost seeping into the prices?

 

Thinking mostly CSIQ news and we'll have another rally if/when China announces their plan.  Added a little bit FSLR today.  

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Monday, September 3 is closest catalyst - European MIP (minimum import price) expiration.

India is tariff free, and if EU is free and China confirms 10 GW policy - then all solar will explode!

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44 minutes ago, MVA said:

Monday, September 3 is closest catalyst - European MIP (minimum import price) expiration.

India is tariff free, and if EU is free and China confirms 10 GW policy - then all solar will explode!

buying some calls?

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I re-read that post & this time noticed the time frame:

"bidding to start as early as October. Successful bidders will start construction from around March, and must finish by the end of September or December next year."

So, sounds unlikely this affects Q3 or 4, but maybe Q1?  

I guess that's why solar stocks are not exactly jumping, but this news should firm up prices.  

For once I randomly lucked out.  I bought CSIQ calls on this news & the next day this fund announcing they are pushing the CSIQ deal ahead.  Didn't buy enough though.

Edited by sunnypease

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