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https://www.pv-tech.org/news/china-could-top-last-years-record-solar-installations-aecea

China may outdo it's solar installation estimates, according to AECEA.  

Anyone know what China was estimated to do and how much more this is?   

The takeaway seems to be that ASPs will be fine past Q2, with Front Runner & poverty alleviation programs.

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Another seemingly big piece of news.   Q2 "global corporate funding" was much weaker -- the reason given is Suniva uncertainty.  

"The money flowing into solar dropped from the first quarter to the second, falling 56% from $3.2 billion to $1.4 billion."  

Information from a Mercom report

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/07/10/report-global-corporate-funding-of-solar-reached-4-6-billion-in-first-quarter/

 

Anyone know if this is something to be concerned about??

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1 hour ago, sunnypease said:

Another seemingly big piece of news.   Q2 "global corporate funding" was much weaker -- the reason given is Suniva uncertainty.  

"The money flowing into solar dropped from the first quarter to the second, falling 56% from $3.2 billion to $1.4 billion."  

Information from a Mercom report

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/07/10/report-global-corporate-funding-of-solar-reached-4-6-billion-in-first-quarter/

 

Anyone know if this is something to be concerned about??

It's concerning to those exposed to cost of PV plant construction and rooftop solar in the US. Directly hit are those who sell such installations. The lost a big piece of their market. Indirectly hit are their suppliers and buyers, but they might have other options to sell their components (outside US) and buy generation assets (wind or solar outside US), so they might just have lost a small piece of their total markets for sales and purchases. I might be harder for a local solar installer or developer to change market than for component sellers and assets owners.

The global hit is maybe a wait and see stance of global developers for better global opportunities to replace the diminishing US opportunity. This will negatively impact ASPs on a short-term basis. Whether global markets can pick up the slack from a slashed US one will determine medium term effect on ASPs.

Edited by explo

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50 minutes ago, explo said:

It's concerning to those exposed to cost of PV plant construction and rooftop solar in the US. Directly hit are those who sell such installations. The lost a big piece of their market. Indirectly hit are their suppliers and buyers, but they might have other options to sell their components (outside US) and buy generation assets (wind or solar outside US), so they might just have lost a small piece of their total markets for sales and purchases. I might be harder for a local solar installer or developer to change market than for component sellers and assets owners.

The global hit is maybe a wait and see stance of global developers for better global opportunities to replace the diminishing US opportunity. This will negatively impact ASPs on a short-term basis. Whether global markets can pick up the slack from a slashed US one will determine medium term effect on ASPs.

Hi Explo -  

Thank you for your thoughts & comments.  

Are you talking about what has already happened in Q2  or about what will happen if Suniva actually happens?

The article says that Q2 already saw a big drop in "global corporate spending".

The story does not make sense to me -- I do not understand why Suniva would slow down corporate funding outside the US.    And yet the article talks about a Q2 global corporate funding slowdown, not a US one.

Also, I was surprised because the story thus far was that Suniva was currently boosting module sales in the US.

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Mainly about what is already happening. For ongoing projects that are too late to cancel panel purchases are rushed instead of as normal waiting as long as possible. For other projects they are either cancelled or not started based on major risk of major adverse change to project economics.

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Thanks for the clarification, Explo.  That makes sense.  

It must be very difficult right now for big project planners to figure out if they should sign PPAs at today's rates given that module prices may double soon.

 

Hopefully people notice this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-12/scientists-say-massive-iceberg-has-broken-off-in-antarctica

and buy up solar shares today.  But somehow I'm doubting that will happen.

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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-paris-agreement-macron-france-visit-climate-change-something-could-happen-a7840021.html

"Donald Trump has opened the door to a reversal of his decision on the Paris Agreement on climate change saying that “something” could happen regarding the deal during his trip to France for Bastille Day. "

Trump is a business man and he always wants a better deal.  I think he will press and press but ultimately he will join the Paris Climate Accord.

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6 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

Trump is a business man and he always wants a better deal.  I think he will press and press but ultimately he will join the Paris Climate Accord.

It seems odd to me that a party looking to make good deals would not be worried about being discounted as a broken party by its deal breaking tendencies. It would not be a good example to set for the 200 other countries in the world to reward premiums in deal terms to parties that don't honor entered agreements. It's parallel to the Brexit situation where UK leaders tell their voters that they will cherry pick EU benefits and the EU27 giving them the finger in order to not incentivize further exits. That's why I think there's a risk the next deal will have worse terms for US and that they therefore will not re-join.

Isn't he just in a very short time ruining a great negotiation position in the world built by the US over a long time with this behavior? Getting good deals by utilizing a good negotiating position is fine for new agreements, but the strategy to not honor already entered deals for short-term gains will likely undermine that ambition on a long-term basis. The guy might not care about the long-term outlook of the US negotiating position in the world though.

 

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Good point about his disaster of negotiating skills.  First salvo we'll see is the steel 232 case - a decision is due soon.

 

Not that my opinion matters, but I think Trump was just saying the positive remarks about Paris because he had just had a nice dinner with Macron & certainly Macron pressed him on the issue.  

He seems very two faced.  An opportunist with very little moral fiber.

Consequences of having a lot of money & being not very bright & having lived the big life in the 80s.  I'm sure he was a coke head.  He acts like it.

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16 hours ago, explo said:

It seems odd to me that a party looking to make good deals would not be worried about being discounted as a broken party by its deal breaking tendencies. It would not be a good example to set for the 200 other countries in the world to reward premiums in deal terms to parties that don't honor entered agreements. It's parallel to the Brexit situation where UK leaders tell their voters that they will cherry pick EU benefits and the EU27 giving them the finger in order to not incentivize further exits. That's why I think there's a risk the next deal will have worse terms for US and that they therefore will not re-join.

Isn't he just in a very short time ruining a great negotiation position in the world built by the US over a long time with this behavior? Getting good deals by utilizing a good negotiating position is fine for new agreements, but the strategy to not honor already entered deals for short-term gains will likely undermine that ambition on a long-term basis. The guy might not care about the long-term outlook of the US negotiating position in the world though.

 

I totally agree with you.  At home he talked tough about other countries' leaders, but when he met them, he appeared weak.  Xi and Puttin eat his lunch.  He and his kids are bullies and idiots but they think they are smart.  The president "has no clothes."  Sorry for the rant.

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No need to be sorry.  Rant on!  It's the future of our planet we are discussing after all.

 

Solarworld USA received some 6M to carry them while they focus on the 201 petition.

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/solarworld-americas-gets-financial-aid-to-support-operations-and-section-20

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https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/07/17/analysis-18-gw-q2-could-drive-china-pv-installs-above-35-gw-data-shows/

China outdoing itself on q2 installs.

There is more in there:

"This year, delays to FIT payments had shaken confidence in parts of China’s domestic solar market, and Lin warned that the situation appears to be getting worse, not better. "

also

"However, at the end of July demand is expected to drop off sharply, Lin says, with far fewer installations in the second half (H2) of the year compared to H1."

Another FIT fit?

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2 hours ago, odyd said:

"Continued module oversupply and component price decreases will also make solar PV competitive in technology agnostic auctions."

SPWR thinks that it has already solved this problem.

Also, didn't GTM completely miss the glut last year?

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Just read a general wrap up of the gains today, but also had a tidbit about a new law in South Miami soon requiring that all new homes have solar panels

<<Today, in Miami, Florida it was announced that in South Miami new homes will soon be required to be built with solar panels — the first such mandate in the state. The ordinance will also affect select home renovations as well.

“Solar reduces the cost of home ownership, it makes houses sell faster, it returns more to a builder, it makes local jobs, and most importantly, it reduces carbon emissions today to help our children and grandchildren have a better future tomorrow,” South Miami Mayor Philip Stoddard, said on Tuesday night.>>

 

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10 hours ago, SolarRoof said:

Today, in Miami, Florida it was announced that in South Miami new homes will soon be required to be built with solar panels — the first such mandate in the state. The ordinance will also affect select home renovations as well.

If this spreads there is a new very solid market segment. The cost and economics of it becomes secondary as the investment is a small mandate part of a very big investment for a home buyer. Importing panels at double price might not be considered as big an issue for this segment as for the utility segment.

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4 hours ago, odyd said:

Could you find the original from CS?

CS is all over the map with valuation methods.

This is their JKS valuation from June 6.   Just a 7.5 2018 EPS.

"

Estimates and valuation update: We lower our 2017 non-GAAP EPS estimate to $1.89 (from $2.34) due to lower gross profit in the year. But we increase our 2018/19 non-GAAP EPS estimate to $2.64/$2.77 (from $2.42/2.66) due to lower interest expense as the company has paid down its convertible debt. Our volume, ASP and cost assumptions are unchanged. Our TP of $20 is based on a 7.5x multiple over 2018 EPS (in line with 2014- 15 NTM average multiple), and reflects 1x replacement value. Key risks are potential US tariff, growing oversupply, demand weakness, and cost trajectory. "

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