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Just now, Mark said:

I wouldn't boo that.  Let him have it.  Anyone think there's any chance China reverses or revises the policy as was requested?  Gordon's commentary wasn't exactly what I hoped to hear.

China's policy will protect the top business players, no matter what.

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So Gordon thinks that clients will cancel their First Solar contracts... Obviously prices will drop for ASPs worldwide.  And so FSLR won't be competitive globally.

But how much of FSLR's numbers were global sales?

And can clients so easily get out of these contracts to buy & build solar plants using FSLR's modules?

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2 hours ago, explo said:

IHS Markit forecasts global solar demand to increase 11% in 2018 despite China cuts

 https://www.pv-tech.org/news/ihs-markit-forecasts-global-solar-demand-to-increase-11-in-2018-despite-chi

That's good news!  

I was thinking over the week's events...

China said that part of the reason they are cutting back subsidies is because their grid cannot handle more solar energy.  Sounds like they are experiencing the duck curve.

My fearful realization was:  Is this happening everywhere?  Will solar require storage to continue expansion?

I am hopeful that solar module executives would have seen such a big problem coming at them.

 

Just to edit my own post.... NO!  It's doubtful China cannot handle solar on their grid.  It must be due to financial / political reasons.

According to wikipedia:

Of the 6,412 TWh electricity produced in China in 2017,[8] 118.2 TWh was generated by solar power, equivalent to 1.84% of total electricity production

In California, solar is up to 8% generation: http://www.energy.ca.gov/almanac/electricity_data/total_system_power.html

Edited by sunnypease

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/solar-surpasses-gas-and-wind-as-biggest-source-of-new-u-s-power

Solar power in U.S. climbed 13% in first quarter, SEIA says

 

Developers installed 2.5 gigawatts of solar in the first quarter, up 13 percent from a year earlier, according to a report Tuesday from the Solar Energy Industries Association and GTM Research. That accounted for 55 percent of all new generation, with solar panels beating new wind and natural gas turbines for a second straight quarter.

 

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21 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

Good Gracious 😥

Solar Prices Nosedive After China Pullback Floods Global Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-20/solar-prices-nosedive-after-china-pullback-floods-global-market

Anything changed in the last few days to make you reconsider holding your FSLR?  I keep waiting for a bounce that doesn't come to lighten my load a bit.  I (think) I like that volume is drying up, but in theory that could just mean we're at the middle of the decline and have another leg lower.  Analysts are no good, because they're all over the place and just a bunch of liars most of the time anyway.  And forget getting any info out of FSLR investor relations, they're MIA just like management.  Maybe they only have bad news too?  Dunno what to think.  I know I WANT to think they have good relationships and a solid enough brand to keep those and not have to put massive discounts on everything, but maybe I'm dreaming.

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17 hours ago, Mark said:

Anything changed in the last few days to make you reconsider holding your FSLR?  I keep waiting for a bounce that doesn't come to lighten my load a bit.  I (think) I like that volume is drying up, but in theory that could just mean we're at the middle of the decline and have another leg lower.  Analysts are no good, because they're all over the place and just a bunch of liars most of the time anyway.  And forget getting any info out of FSLR investor relations, they're MIA just like management.  Maybe they only have bad news too?  Dunno what to think.  I know I WANT to think they have good relationships and a solid enough brand to keep those and not have to put massive discounts on everything, but maybe I'm dreaming.

Today was bizarre.  Started out up a couple % points in PM.  

Then down.. maybe because of that Bloomberg piece?  If so, down 1% seems pretty muted for a headline like that.

Top gainer is JWS.. because the CEO says they can sidestep the new tariffs.  And CSIQ up too, probably on the same idea?

 

Edited by sunnypease

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27 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Today was bizarre.  Started out up a couple % points in PM.  

 

I don't think any of this has to do with the add'l 25% tariff because its not really going to affect these guys.  I think that's just a smoke screen.  That's just another barrier for whatever other tier 2 types may be dumping here, because everyone else jumped ship to SE Asia last time tariffs were put in place.   I think FSLR is just trying to find its sea legs again and see where the bottom is.  "They" kept us from breaching the VWAP all day after the big tumble this morning.  We'd hit the VWAP and each and every time, a sell order would execute and knock us down a few cents.  VERY tightly controlled pricing today by the algo(s).  I suspect tomorrow we open up down some amount and they'll test the lower end of the range.  Just in time for me to hop in the car on friday and drive 6 hours for vacation with the kids and wife.  I was hoping we'd find 53 and stick there, just so I could have this garbage off my mind over the next week.  I like the declining volume and some of the divergences and the Balance of Power (the Worden version) has kinda indicated that there may be some light accumulation going on the past few days.  But who the heck knows, they'll do what they want with it.  If this were a normal time, I'd say today and the last few days looks like quiet accumulation.  But these aren't normal times, so it could also very well be quiet distribution.  

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Has anyone seen this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-22/irs-ruling-on-u-s-credit-an-unexpected-gift-to-solar-developers?

Incredible coincidence with JKS' 25% intraday move up over the last three days form a fresh one year low only a few days ago.

May also explain huge AH CSIQ transactions over the last couple of weeks. Are solars done falling?

 

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8 hours ago, pg6solar said:

Has anyone seen this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-22/irs-ruling-on-u-s-credit-an-unexpected-gift-to-solar-developers?

Incredible coincidence with JKS' 25% intraday move up over the last three days form a fresh one year low only a few days ago.

May also explain huge AH CSIQ transactions over the last couple of weeks. Are solars done falling?

 

Great news. We can look forward to a big US demand surge in 2023.

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