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I thought Trump is warming up to China.  Well, he is fickle and does change his mind a lot.  Anything can happen.  He might even surprise and reverse stand on global warming.

I thought similar way but this is manufacturing which brings Ohio sub of Solarworld into a scope as a failure. All what needs to happen is US sub to join Suniva and things would look really bleak for Chinese. At least things look uncertain. Still a lot of time before October. Q2 will be also out, so we will know fundamentals better any way. Explo is buying JKS so he must feel confidence about it I am not so sure.

 

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2 hours ago, odyd said:

Explo is buying JKS so he must feel confidence about it I am not so sure.

Forcing US importers to pay double market price for imported solar cells and panels is mainly hurting US developers who don't belong to a group that has foreign panel manufacturing. The groups that have will allow profits to move from the domestic developers to the foreign manufacturers. 

That said any major market disruption is hurting the industry as a whole while only few are in a position to benefit and JKS might not be the best short-term tactical choice looking only at this issue, but looking at all short-term aspects and beyond the short-term I still think it's the best solar position to be in.

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Hi all, wondering what the collective wisdom is re yieldcos and (1) the petition and (2) NRG potential 5Gw renewables sell off  or both ?{admission - long NEP and NYLD}

Enertuition on SA has an article re devco situations re petition but no mention of Yieldcos.  I'm assuming drop downs will still occur but cost might be higher and unless PPA $ rise then lower IRR for yieldcos so presumably a general slow down , lower prices bid for projects or higher PPA or all three? Is wind preferentially boosted , hence an uptick for PEGI?

What happens if CAFD sold and FSLR suddenly gangbusters? Which yieldco gets lucky or will it be using SUNE style warehouses?

Back with yieldcos - If NRG does dump 5GW renewables and NYLD becomes freestanding then ?BAM ?Berkshire ?Total etc?  (?Pensions /greenbonds money?) pick up the assets either directly or via partnering with yieldco's? Maybe thats the cryptic comment re 'seeking partners' in NYLD recent statements (already pointed out on this site) .

In any event thinking the more stable yieldco's should continue to be stable and may either  get some catalyst if partner arrives  or at least provide steady dividend but ?lower growth in dividend if acquisitions slow?

If petition + NRG selloff happens could be interesting???

All thoughts welcomed !

 

 

 

 

 

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Heliostat, fewer new PV plants will likely be built in the US after a certain date due to fear of issues with the supply of a critical component (the panel). Plants already in construction will likely rush order their panels with expected cost impact (warehousing, price surges) in order to eliminate risk of even higher panel cost later. Fear of disruption is itself disruptive.

I must say I have a hard time seeing why it would be in the interest of US to provide massive margins to foreign panel exporters and squeeze the margins of their own development companies in their domestic market and thus shrink their market.

On the other hand US is in the situation now where there is uncertainty regarding whether their president always acts to protect US interest (even if he intends to he might sometimes be misguided by contoversial advisors).

Tariffs are a complete different story as that can be portrayed as taking money from foreign exporters (although in reality it takes maybe more from domestic importers) and give to US taxpayers. Something that would seem much more sensible to the voting taxpayer that is not importing panels or buying PV systems.

Regarding yieldcos those with a sponsor with panel manufacturing in its group will likely be better of. Before solid sponsors like NEE have been appreciated for its financial strength. Now maybe a sponsor like SPWR might seem better through its access (2nd party) to critical comoponents.

if we take a company like SPWR where its US installation arm is importing panel from it Malaysian manufacturing arm. The main effect to to SPWR group would be that pay more tax to Malyasia and less to US and that more of the groups cash would be accumulated in Malaysia and drained from the US. That's why it is hard to see a broader perspective US benefit with a MIP on all countries of the world at double global market price.

Edited by explo
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Heliostat I am travelling but few points before bigger explanation.

The tariff forces anyone importing cell from abroad to pay tariff and minimum price on modules but it is a backdrop of existing tariffs and I think now is beyond existing tariffs and thus includes them. Ener article is wrong in few places so needs to be filtered. Companies having factories elsewhere would pay. Thin film is excluded, first solar is best positioned. Period of saturation will follow.

 

 

 

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Heliostat,

Implementation of tariffs, how much it does not make sense, is possible with this administration. It was done under Obama, and it is likely to be done, carelessly under Trump. It is ITC’s recommendation and presidential order, so it is happening, in my opinion as there is no accountability to anyone directly. Trump’s attitude toward the outcome, which will slow down solar, and chance it to increase other sources of energy in the country, namely fossil, will make this happen.

Nobody will pay the prices named for modules, assuming those numbers will be implemented. Thin-film modules from First Solar or Frontier Solar or ones made by Tesla/Panasonic will be immediately in advantage. Companies which built capacity in SEA with one purpose for the US market, will have now an expensive, for them, capacity to be sold elsewhere, Europe seems like a logical receiver of this product. Chinese thin-film manufacturers will be selling modules in the US.

I was under the impression that you could not have two trade orders in the same place, but this one supersedes anything prior, so Chinese and Taiwanese modules would be at a minimum price as well.

How does this impact Chinese companies? Well, in my opinion, every tariff-free module may ship to the US, between now and October. Some are contracted, and some will be stored for future availability. Paying tariff on modules from China may not be too bad if the prices rose, as some say.

I disagree that Ontario plant would benefit Canadian. Trump put tariffs on Canadian softwood the other day, so NAFTA agreement means nothing to him. It would be a dead blow to SunPower, for many seeing abilities to recover with residential business, when Mexico, Philippines, Malaysia and Chinese fabs can be only sold at a minimum price.  They may get exception potentially. It could make logical sense to move production to the US, as prices could provide relief to cost. At that point, Trump’s logic would be successful to bring manufacturing into the US.

I see zero impact on yieldcos. They are buyers of the final product. The final product will be available and what is contracted will be sold to produce economic value. PPA is not going up, and you are right, the wind will dominate development and occasional plant here, and there will be built, most likely by FSLR or modules piled up for a couple of years. As mentioned Canadian’s solar selling price may get a bit of boost and its plants’ share could be snapped by the higher bidder.

I see the same dynamic with NYLD being for sale. The same situation is for CAFD now. The order which would certainly stop solar projects would add to any projects in existence a bit more value, naturally as long as they offer economics to produce a profit to a buyer.  I see Canadian gain here. However, before they gain, there will be a lot of ups and downs. I think NYLD being held until August could offer growth, while Chinese companies drop under pressures. I may end up buying Canadian, which I think will move its production to the US to support opportunities, having US presence in Recurrent and ability to manage in the US, the best out of the three. They have managed in Canada, and this is the same environment.

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Thanks very much Explo and Robert for your thoughtful responses. Slowing grid decarbonisation through uncertainty - many tens of thousands of jobs - to benefit few thousand (?) workers in US panel fabs and raise costs to US end users seems unwise, although wind benefits. The time frame to build and fully ramp domestic US production I'm guessing would be ~24? months minimum from a decision on the petition and gives thin film a big free kick and limited competition - maybe to have it all changed again as once ramped - at artificially high prices - it would only be about a year  then till next election, not to mention the midterms. If european tariff regime dropped then rest of world gets flooded with cheap panels from SE ASIA /CHINA plants whilst US consumers locked into high prices and reduced competition as the pressing need to decarbonise mounts. Thats the bitter irony of protectionist policies. The money spent overpaying panels means slowing decarbonisation, capital misallocation  and investment delays, setting the bigger system up for failure as  investment to change old grid slows/ climate change impacts persist/  until a crisis such as happened recently in Australia with state wide blackouts ensues due to policy vacuum slowing and distorting investment . Is the petition decision due in about 100 days now ~ mid August?

Robert do you think your thesis on NEP sp growth is impacted much, maybe more likely at the 12% rather than 15% level of div increase? feeling a bit over solar at the moment....

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NEP and NEE had planned mostly the wind. Solar is a small part of the plan but the plan they have will be supplied. NYLD has about 234MW in 2018 and 2019. Both projects will have modules available by end of this year.

All the projects being built, all the project already built will get good pricing. It may take three months to build a factory in the US. Depending on how fast someone wants to get in.

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There are about 13GW of renewables available for NEP. Solar is 1.5GW rounded. There are three gas pipelines. NYLD is similar, have around 234MW in ROFO. Buying wind and gas will be the game. But if someone feels solar, CSIQ will have 1GW waiting for them. 

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3 minutes ago, odyd said:

Hmm.  I am not sure if that letter will be well received!

First it sort of mocks the Mexican wall & then it quotes Obama without naming him.

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5 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Hmm.  I am not sure if that letter will be well received!

First it sort of mocks the Mexican wall & then it quotes Obama without naming him.

Those letters have never influenced anything. I agree that the letter is hardly professional. I am curious what game Chinese are playing here. Shunfeng as an owner has never said anything, how is the company being treated at home, I am curious?

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5 minutes ago, odyd said:

Those letters have never influenced anything. I agree that the letter is hardly professional. I am curious what game Chinese are playing here. Shunfeng as an owner has never said anything, how is the company being treated at home, I am curious?

Do you think maybe this Jolywood purposefully penned a slightly inflammatory letter so as to give more power to the Suniva petition?

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4 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Do you think maybe this Jolywood purposefully penned a slightly inflammatory letter so as to give more power to the Suniva petition?

Not sure, this is a letter from SEIA. Letters from SEIA did nothing for Chinese tariffs and even poly companies like Hemlock sued SolarWorld to lift the petition and still did not work

http://3vq5kdns38e1qxlmvvqmrzsi.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/SEIA-Letter-to-ITC.pdf

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All it takes now for SolarWorld America to join Suniva and that would be the whole PV in the US. At that point, they will have the numbers. 

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16 hours ago, odyd said:

All it takes now for SolarWorld America to join Suniva and that would be the whole PV in the US. At that point, they will have the numbers. 

House is on fire, and we tax the bucket.

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Shunfeng finally separates itself from the Sunvia's action from the body of the article:

SFCE noted: ‘As the majority shareholder (63.13%) of Suniva, Inc., Shunfeng believes it is not in the best interests of the global solar industry for the Chief Restructuring Officer of Suniva, Inc. to file the Section 201 petition for global safeguard relief, nor does it represent the correct path to a viable solution for all stakeholders to the earlier petition for relief under Chapter 11. The global trade cooperation is vital to the sound and prosperous growth of the solar energy industry and the US solar market would not thrive if the fundamental principles of free market economy were not abided by.’

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/seia-to-lead-campaign-against-sunivas-usitc-trade-complaint

 

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