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dydo

JA Solar (JASO)

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I agree, technically things don't seem great.  

I'm sticking with CSIQ because of the hidden value of their solar assets.  Where there is value, the market will come around and discover it.  Eventually.

Solar panels are something the world obviously needs more of.  I'm not a firm believer that FSLR can pull off Series 6's module price targets.  

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On 8/28/2017 at 8:39 AM, Klothilde said:

 I agree that Travis is off sometimes when it comes to solar.  The issue I see with such a letter however is that his overall ratings track record is fantastic (ranked top 1% on tipranks.com) and way better than Robert's track record on that site:
https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/travis-hoium
https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/robert-dydo

solid analysis, i'm sure his expertise in hotels and online commerce are directly transferable to solar manufacturing.

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6 minutes ago, SolarRoof said:

JASO creeping up toward the buyout price, even after Gordo's downgrade.  Who knows where things stand with the buyout offer...

They had no update on the CC. "no update" and then about 5 seconds of silence.

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JASO has been trading above buyout offer all morning on high volume.  Hoping it's off the table or someone knows of a competing, higher bid.  Perhaps someone knows the 6.80 is going through and so the shares are being bought up to that point.  My basis is in the 7's so hoping for the former.  No news anywhere that I can find.

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Hmm, maybe Jinko and JA have something brewing?  Strange day for sure and the Jinko action over the past few months, including big stock purchases from Chinese investors.  Also found it interesting that Xiande Li decided to sign up and start tweeting the day of the solar eclipse too. 

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1 hour ago, disdaniel said:

something screwy at jaso

Isn't it possible that the market just figures it's worth more than the offer & will buy it up?  The chairman might want it for 6.80, but he can't get it so easily...

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2 hours ago, sunnypease said:

The chairman might want it for 6.80, but he can't get it so easily...

Why not?  As long as he can get the board to agree to redeem all shares at his price.  That's what happened with Trina, didn't it?

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1 hour ago, SolarRoof said:

BTW, this run started the same day as Gordo's sell note and $5 price target.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3292466-ja-solar-cut-sell-axiom-johnson-doubles-bearish-bet

I noticed that too.  I wonder if Gordo was buying right after he issued that sell recommendation. 

Also, he recommended CSIQ and FSLR.  These two did not move.

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5 hours ago, solarpete said:

Why not?  As long as he can get the board to agree to redeem all shares at his price.  That's what happened with Trina, didn't it?

No the shareholders agreed at Trina, since Gao offered them a price at premium to both current market price and IPO price. That's how you show shareholder consideration and not selfishness. In the end Gao could conclude the public venture in a respectable manner given the challenging industry. Jin is doing neither. He is old now along with the ones close to him and maybe new blood should try to oust the old at JASO with support from shareholders. Their operations have been very shareholder friendly with many consecutive profitable quarters. 

Bottom line you can't buy something at a price that the seller does not agree to. The board is not the seller.

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5 hours ago, SolarRoof said:

Maybe the $6.80 offer was just a smoke screen to make the $9.60 (or something similar) look like a good deal.  At this point, I'd be thrilled with $9.60.

Yes that's smart thinking. The $6.80 offer never seemed close realistic in terms of acceptability.

Maybe the market is thinking the same,  but more than that they see JASO managing relatively well still in Q2. When the going gets tough all but Jinko struggle, well not it seems JASO is the one gliding along with soon 15 or so consectuive profitable quarters irrepective of market conditions and still maintaining low leverage and $20 per ADS BV, while slowly and steadily accumulating highly profitable CN projects.

 

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4 hours ago, SolarRoof said:

I'm no expert, but don't shifty analysts usually buy with buy recommendations and sell with sells?  I guess not in solar land...

Depends on the note. A buy note that makes might be made public after the represented interests have taken their long positions.

A sell note that doesn't add up might be published when represented interest wants to take a long position.

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So much for the offer price being a ceiling. I never understood the "the bid is the lid" claim..

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12 hours ago, explo said:

No the shareholders agreed at Trina, since Gao offered them a price at premium to both current market price and IPO price. That's how you show shareholder consideration and not selfishness. In the end Gao could conclude the public venture in a respectable manner given the challenging industry. Jin is doing neither. He is old now along with the ones close to him and maybe new blood should try to oust the old at JASO with support from shareholders. Their operations have been very shareholder friendly with many consecutive profitable quarters. 

Bottom line you can't buy something at a price that the seller does not agree to. The board is not the seller.

I have to disagree about the board not being the seller.  I was a shareholder.  I was NEVER contacted to obtain my approval.  My shares were simply sold out from under me when the time came.

Did I miss something along the way?

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20 minutes ago, solarpete said:

I have to disagree about the board not being the seller.  I was a shareholder.  I was NEVER contacted to obtain my approval.  My shares were simply sold out from under me when the time came.

Did I miss something along the way?

It depends on how you "owned" the shares. I've owned shares directly and through broker. Through broker there are different account styles. The one I use now is a tax free insurance and the broker is the formal owner  of shares and thus I don't get to vote at GMs.

 

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Here is the PM on the vote: 

http://ir.trinasolar.com/mobile.view?c=206405&v=203&d=1&id=2230297

By the way each shareholder is not personally called to a GM (annual or extraordinary). Companies only have to properly announce them and then it's up to shareholders to show up and vote.

Edited by explo

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1 hour ago, explo said:

It depends on how you "owned" the shares. I've owned shares directly and through broker. Through broker there are different account styles. The one I use now is a tax free insurance and the broker is the formal owner  of shares and thus I don't get to vote at GMs.

 

I owned mine through TD Ameritrade.  Perhaps that's the explanation.  Although the broker shouldn't care what the share price is, so I don't see why the broker should be the entity entitled to vote.

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1 hour ago, explo said:

Here is the PM on the vote: 

http://ir.trinasolar.com/mobile.view?c=206405&v=203&d=1&id=2230297

By the way each shareholder is not personally called to a GM (annual or extraordinary). Companies only have to properly announce them and then it's up to shareholders to show up and vote.

Unfortunately, I can't access that link from my work computer.  I'll check it out at home (where it will presumably work).

Maybe I did receive an electronic ballot (that's the way TD Ameritrade usually does these things), and already forgot about it again.  I do seem to remember receiving a notification about a Board meeting where the offer was on the agenda--I just don't remember my input as a shareholder being solicited (hence my initial claim the board did this on their own).  But perhaps it was, and I just don't remember.  In any case, I'm certainly under no illusions that my puny few hundred shares would have swayed the outcome.

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20 hours ago, explo said:

So much for the offer price being a ceiling. I never understood the "the bid is the lid" claim..

The facts are 253 days in last 12 months JASO was 35 of them above 6.80 per share. After the offer, 4 times. September 1, 4, 5 and 7 of this year. I have a hard time throw away the idea that the offer did not lid the stock. Of course, it did. 

Now, perhaps the 4 days of September are a reflection of a change, like Chinese nationals buying the stock, banks, maybe investment firms or maybe Jinglong buying shares on the market, I do not know, but pretty much for 3 months, the lid was firmly on and until the change, it would remain on.  Even the earnings did nothing for it. The BRICS meeting apparently is making difference for JKS so some people are looking into JASO, perhaps. However, I would be very careful to go around like JASO has broken a crust and is running free.  The move could be temporary or maybe it is a sign of the very offer being accepted and last of shares are being cleared for the statistical majority. I hope the company blossoms as all need to be recognized, but 4 days out of 252 is rather small to claim something else.  Two cents.

Thanks

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2 hours ago, dydo said:

The facts are 253 days in last 12 months JASO was 35 of them above 6.80 per share. After the offer, 4 times. September 1, 4, 5 and 7 of this year. I have a hard time throw away the idea that the offer did not lid the stock. Of course, it did. 

Now, perhaps the 4 days of September are a reflection of a change, like Chinese nationals buying the stock, banks, maybe investment firms or maybe Jinglong buying shares on the market, I do not know, but pretty much for 3 months, the lid was firmly on and until the change, it would remain on.  Even the earnings did nothing for it. The BRICS meeting apparently is making difference for JKS so some people are looking into JASO, perhaps. However, I would be very careful to go around like JASO has broken a crust and is running free.  The move could be temporary or maybe it is a sign of the very offer being accepted and last of shares are being cleared for the statistical majority. I hope the company blossoms as all need to be recognized, but 4 days out of 252 is rather small to claim something else.  Two cents.

Thanks

The nonsense lowered bid felt more like a wet blanket to me. Who wants to be in a stock doing great but with a shareholder insulting chairman and CEO? The rise above bid might reflect speculation that it will be raised again or will be of no consequence.

By nature a large bid is considered a temporary floor until filled and a large ask is considered a temporary ceiling. Extending that to a maximum non-binding bid being a permanent ceiling seems non-linear to me. It all depends on the likelyhood of shareholders accepting it and the likelyhood of the bidder having to raise it or withdraw it. 

What you see now is others bidding higher than the chairman because they see more value than the price offered by the chairman. They market is invalidating the chairman's bid, handing the ball back to him. Let's see if the lame board has anything to say about it.

Edited by explo

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Man Group reports passive stake in JASO

12.4M shares.  Jet you could be on something or you are the Man G.

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1 hour ago, dydo said:

JA Solar reports 11.8% GM, makes 13 cents.

Jaso re-affirms CSIQ comments on higher priced Poly impacting for many more quarters.

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7 minutes ago, SCSolar said:

Jaso re-affirms CSIQ comments on higher priced Poly impacting for many more quarters.

How many? I am under impression that Q1 will see a drop in prices due to demand and plants going back to work. Q2 prices to fall. No concern is being shared by analysts, at this point.

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