Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
dydo

JA Solar (JASO)

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, pg6solar said:

Common Explo, my reply was regarding DQ since this was the conversation, not JKS.

I was continuing DQ conversation when JKS got mixed in between my posts.

I was talking about DQ, not JKS.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, pg6solar said:

Right that's why one does in/out on .20 moves. What is .20, or .50 or even a $1 long term?

Hey, don't knock even 20 cent moves--catch enough of them, and you can make decent money during a period when solar stocks in general are going nowhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am not sure if this was posted but rather very negative view (of course for a reason) from the letter on futures of JA Solar

Our decision to revise the Offer Price has been a difficult one to make but is necessitated by the tougher than expected market conditions faced by the Company.  In particular,

The global financial markets have experienced significant volatility recently, including substantial volatility in equity securities markets and volatility and tightening of liquidity in credit markets. These developments have negatively affected our ability to raise the necessary equity and debt financing required by our Original Proposal.
 

Outlook for the solar industry remains gloomy in the short term due to increasing overcapacity and slowing demand. In the first quarter of 2017, the Company’s gross margin went down 120 and 490 basis points quarter-on-quarter and year on year due to lower average selling prices. Prices of, and demand for, photovoltaic modules and cells in China are expected to weaken after June 30, 2017, the grid-connection deadline to avoid planned tariff cuts. The Company also expects possible price and volume decline in South America and India, which are perceived to be the key markets for solar demand growth.
 

The growth prospect of the Company is subject to increased uncertainty in trade policy and government subsidies, where changes can occur unexpectedly.  For example, a U.S. solar manufacturer recently filed a minimum import price petition under Section 201 of the Trade Act of 1974 with The United States International Trade Commission. If the United States grants Section 201 relief with a four-year minimum import price on photovoltaic modules and cells, which could be set at roughly twice the current market price, the Company’s business would be negatively affected.
 

China’s GDP growth rate was 6.7% in the 2016, which was the lowest since 1990, and the economic slowdown and challenges to the macroeconomic environment in China are expected to sustain. The solar industry in China may have reached market saturation after rapid development over the past few years. The annual demand for photovoltaic modules in China is predicted to drop from 34.2 gigawatts in 2016 to 31.5 gigawatts in 2017. Coupled with overcapacity in the Chinese solar industry, the Company may face greater challenges to grow or even to maintain its market position.

In closing, we continue to be fully committed to close the Acquisition and believe that the Acquisition would provide attractive value to the Company’s shareholders. We hope that the Special Committee will give prompt consideration to our revised proposal and we are prepared to move forward with the Acquisition on an expedited basis.

Should you have any questions regarding this proposal, please do not hesitate to contact the undersigned. We look forward to hearing from you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, odyd said:

I am not sure if this was posted but rather very negative view (of course for a reason) from the letter on futures of JA Solar

 

We knew about all these problems, and yet we thought the CN solars could make it through.  Yes, to hear that a CN solar doesn't think they can make it through -- or at least thinks that the overhead of being public is no longer worth it, is not encouraging.  

I'm surprised we didn't see more of a CN solar dump yesterday with notes like those.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a bunch of BS citing very near term outlook as the primary basis of the value of the company. If things are so gloomy why does he still want to buy it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, pg6solar said:

The reasons given for significantly lowering the "offer" should and will IMHO put ,at least in a short term, pressure on US listed CN solar stocks. Its clear JKS will be next in not so distant future, which really leaves only CSIQ as an "investable" "CN" solar listed in the US.

Based on yesterday's stocks movement, market did not "buy" the argument...yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, sunnypease said:

We knew about all these problems, and yet we thought the CN solars could make it through.  Yes, to hear that a CN solar doesn't think they can make it through -- or at least thinks that the overhead of being public is no longer worth it, is not encouraging.  

I'm surprised we didn't see more of a CN solar dump yesterday with notes like those.

How credulous one be to read this and sell any stock?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, odyd said:

How credulous one be to read this and sell any stock?

I didn't sell!   :)  But I didn't add either. :(

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yet selling is happening.

Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, explo said:

Yes. That one an FSLR make up half my stocks portfolio on equal split. Both popping on ERs. The other half is JKS/JASO at 60/40 split, which did not do that well on ER.

Explo, are you holding onto JASO?  I still have a position.  I don't know what to do here.

My average 6.97

Wait some years for a 6.80 payout?   They could go BK during this time.  

An upper limit on the price without a lower limit.  

Isn't there room for a third party counter offer?  Or will it be as odyd says... the CEO may even lower the offer.

Thank you

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Isn't it strange that JASO continues to trade?

Explo... you are still holding JASO?  What is your plan?  I still have some shares & not sure what to do. 

Anyone have a tip? 

Thank you-

Matt

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, explo said:

What a bunch of BS citing very near term outlook as the primary basis of the value of the company. If things are so gloomy why does he still want to buy it?

EXACTLY!!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, sunnypease said:

Isn't it strange that JASO continues to trade?

Why wouldn't it?  This offer, like the previous one, is still non-binding.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, solarpete said:

Why wouldn't it?  This offer, like the previous one, is still non-binding.

I don't know.  I'm a first timer here when it comes this situation.

You all recommend just holding tight?  There is a chance the market ignores the offer and bids it back over 6.95?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It seems that the market is already ignoring the offer.

With TSL the offer was 11.60 and the market price before TO was about 10.60  So about 10% discount.

Here the offer is 6.80.  10% discount would be about 6.20. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Matt, I'm still holding. I'm not sure why the market should be very influence by a non-binding bid price. The bid for TSL lifted it 30% above peers but only when it became definite.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I suspect the market will ignore the offer for now, as it ignored the previous one, but that doesn't mean the stock price is out of the woods.  Share price will be dictated by business outlook, and right now, JASO is doing its best to paint a gloomy picture (to justify the dramatically lower offer).  If business conditions improve for solars generally, JASO share price should rise to at least the offer price.  If it stops there will then be determined by how serious the offer appears at that time--did they form an independent committee to report to shareholders on the value of the offer?  If so, how independent is that committee, and what did they recommend?  How many shares does the chairman already own (I believe Trina's chairman owned enough that he alone pretty much guaranteed passage of the shareholder resolution to accept the offer)?  Has anyone else indicated interest?  If it looks like the offer won't be accepted, or might be raised, share price could continue to rise above the offer price.  But all that is contingent on business conditions.

Which is true for share price of most companies in general, of course.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you Pete for that explanation.  I still hold about 5% JASO.

JASO sees nothing but negative times ahead and so is battening down the hatches by....  opening a new Brazilian subsidiary! 

Oh wither JASO!

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/ja-solar-establishes-new-brazilian-subsidiary

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still hold two small positions of JASO as well, bought at 7.30 and 6.90.  I haven't sold.  Their rise from 5 to 7.50 starting in March was dramatic and supported by volume, which indicates SOMEONE thought their business was looking up.  And I saw that Brazil announcement as well.  So I think the CEO's low-ball offer is just another sleazy way of trying to cheat shareholders.  Trina got away with it, but as I said earlier, I think the Trina CEO controlled a lot more shares, so he had an easier time.  Let's see if JASO has a board of directors that actually thinks about shareholders instead of their own pockets.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wasn't TSL trading at 6 or 7 when the 11.60 offer came in?  Big difference to JASO's offer or so 60 cents more and well below where the stock traded just days before.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think JASO with headwinds may visit below 6. I would probably consider a buy to wait for offer to be accepted.

Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, JASO now looks weak again.  So I wonder what that rise in March was all about?  It was sustained, significant, and on heavy volume.  What's changed since then?  Earnings?  Was the March rise a delayed response to the Q4 earnings "surprise"?  But surely it was obvious the Q4 earnings were due to a one-time event.  Q1 was just back to normal, right in line with expectations--nothing negative there (well, nothing any more negative than for any other solar, anyway).  But now JASO is sinking, while CSIQ and JKS are rising again.

So who knows where JASO will go from here....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, odyd said:

I think JASO with headwinds may visit below 6. I would probably consider a buy to wait for offer to be accepted.

Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk
 

Offer must first be made definite and preferably recommended by the board before it can be put to shareholder vote for acceptance. However the offer is really out of touch with preceding trading range in terms of premium in a way that almost looks as a pretext for the board to decline it saving the chairman the embarressment of having to withdraw it due to his [speculation] failure to raise the funds required.

It's hard to see that changing the offer to $6.80 from $9.60 would make things suddenly move in the direction of an acceptance vote by shareholders.

Trina was different as Gao played it perfectly to time the vote when the price was maybe 50% or more to current market state looking at where peers were trading. JASO offer has no premium what so ever at this time. Maybe the chairman is speculating on a 30% haircut of CSIQ and JKS here which would make the offer much more attractive to shareholders.

Edited by explo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the chairman's  carry on "expect failure" propaganda will induce low JASO price, so when the dust settles and offer firms up for the vote, shareholders will give it up just to cash it without much of the hope. JASO has no premium now but when it sets at 5.50 it will look like a godsend. I am not rooting for this but the guy is clearly twisted and that is his goal. The stock picked in 2013 warrants were issued and price never recovered. I bet he had something to do with it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, odyd said:

I think the chairman's  carry on "expect failure" propaganda will induce low JASO price, so when the dust settles and offer firms up for the vote, shareholders will give it up just to cash it without much of the hope. JASO has no premium now but when it sets at 5.50 it will look like a godsend. I am not rooting for this but the guy is clearly twisted and that is his goal. The stock picked in 2013 warrants were issued and price never recovered. I bet he had something to do with it.

I still think it is hard to convince shareholders to capitulate to this when they the past three years have posted fat (relative to offer price) and nicely growing EPS. If the company did not offer high and quickly growing earning driven by great operational and marketing progress shareholders would be more inclined to let go of their shares. Somebody should make a competing offer here now that the Hemlock lawsuit liability is gone. BV at $20 can be liquidated at discount for a buyer un theory.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, explo said:

I still think it is hard to convince shareholders to capitulate to this

I certainly hope you're right, and that's why I haven't sold my two small stakes yet.  But I think Odyd's right, too--in the short term, the chairman will do his best to tank the stock, hoping to make his offer price more attractive.  I just hope shareholders still ultimately give him a great big "F-U".  I'm so sick of these shenanigans by company "officers" to line their own pockets while screwing shareholders.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Solar share prices are all really taking off today except for JASO due to ceiling the CEO's low buyout offer created.  Board should reject the offer immediately or they are not doing their fiduciary responsibility.  SEC and NYSE should investigate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/22/2017 at 6:57 PM, skhe2116 said:

Solar share prices are all really taking off today except for JASO due to ceiling the CEO's low buyout offer created.  Board should reject the offer immediately or they are not doing their fiduciary responsibility.  SEC and NYSE should investigate.

Looks like a doubter somewhere installed a massive sell order at 6.60.  That is what kept JASO down on Thursday.  

JASO had quickly reached 6.60 right along with SPWR & CSIQ.

Note to that doubter: I sold my JASO at 6.64 Friday.  I'll buy it back once everyone dumps after Thursday & Friday's pump session.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Donate

    Please donate to support this community. We appreciate all donations!

    Donate Sidebar by DevFuse
  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      32
    • Total Posts
      92,723
  • Who's Online (See full list)



×
×
  • Create New...