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dydo

JA Solar (JASO)

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Non biding offer perhaps allows him to buy lower on the market. Ultimately he does not have to buy either he did manage to destroy value of the stock. The situation is certainly anti shareholder. At the end he can always lower it too.

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Where are the lawyers that pop up whenever something mildly bad happens?  Because it's a CN, they are beyond the power of law?

It's nonsense capping the price after a long slide & just before the air is starting to clear.

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44 minutes ago, odyd said:

Cause for last 4 years JASO has not given me any signals for ownership. I have nothing to do with the offer. I have suggested for you to get below the surface of each company. I hold CSIQ and now you see why

CSIQ was the only CN solar not to drop after Q1 earnings.  Congrats on the call.

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49 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

I guess the question is can Chairman buy stock on the open market? As per Ja's ER in May, CEO said no he can not. But I wonder if its true, hence a "non-binding" offer instead of a biding one. Maybe, a pure speculation, non-binding part allows him to buy ADRs on the open market. If he can, it explains a two year delay and even lower "offer" to put ceiling on the share price. If he can't, why just not to put a binding offer. 

His share remained below 17% the past year despite the stock trading below $5 at times. So he has not been buying shares on the market despite lower asks there than his non-binding bid.

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21 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

CSIQ was the only CN solar not to drop after Q1 earnings.  Congrats on the call.

If we don't count DQ..

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1 minute ago, explo said:

His share remained below 17% the past year despite the stock trading below $5 at times. So he has not been buying shares on the market despite lower asks there than his non-binding bid.

Thanks. Then at least the CEO is not a crook and was truthful when stating Chairman could no longer buy on the open market. Why put ceiling and shares then?

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Just now, explo said:

If we don't count DQ..

DQ was a great call too.  Are you still holding?

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1 minute ago, explo said:

If we don't count DQ..

Since stock has almost to liquidity, its very difficult to buy "enough" DQ on the bottom then sell it all close to the top to make good money.

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1 minute ago, sunnypease said:

DQ was a great call too.  Are you still holding?

Yes. That one an FSLR make up half my stocks portfolio on equal split. Both popping on ERs. The other half is JKS/JASO at 60/40 split, which did not do that well on ER.

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1 minute ago, pg6solar said:

Since stock has almost to liquidity, its very difficult to buy "enough" DQ on the bottom then sell it all close to the top to make good money.

Yes. I've had less problems trading it this time around though.

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2 hours ago, odyd said:

I agree, to a point. I suspect that Jinko planning to be a global volume leader will remain on the market. I do not suspect JASO has a lot of holders, however, I feel that if JASO is gone, this will stabilize two companies.

Well going private did not remove Trina from (I am sure) still being a global player. JKS "sold" their most profitable cash cow. They no longer need US listing to be a major player as China IS the place to be for foreseeable future. The main reason IMHO to stay here is to go to equity markets. Will they? I would bet not and if so will go "private" eventually too, leaving only CSIQ as the only non-ADR player (well there's FSLR, but its a different story).

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10 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

Since stock has almost to liquidity, its very difficult to buy "enough" DQ on the bottom then sell it all close to the top to make good money.

Because of its low volume, DQ is very volatile.  Within a course of a day, it can swing greatly.  This morning, it dropped to almost $19 and then bounced back to $20, all with little volume.  I guess the secret to trade DQ is patience.  Put in a very low bid and very high sell orders.  Even with that, I have not much luck with DQ so far.

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14 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

Because of its low volume, DQ is very volatile.  Within a course of a day, it can swing greatly.  This morning, it dropped to almost $19 and then bounced back to $20, all with little volume.  I guess the secret to trade DQ is patience.  Put in a very low bid and very high sell orders.  Even with that, I have not much luck with DQ so far.

Yes it is not ideal for that kind of trading as you risk partial fills. The good thing about it is that it prints $2 EPS per Q and have GM closer to 50% than to 10%.

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2 minutes ago, explo said:

Yes it is not ideal for that kind of trading as you risk partial fills. The good thing about it is that it prints $2 EPS per Q and have GM closer to 50% than to 10%.

Do you see that continuing?  I've heard a couple times on CCs that the price of solar can come down because the price of poly should come down.  Seems like the poly is the obvious fat that module makers have eyes on trimming.

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26 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

Well going private did not remove Trina from (I am sure) still being a global player. JKS "sold" their most profitable cash cow. They no longer need US listing to be a major player as China IS the place to be for foreseeable future. The main reason IMHO to stay here is to go to equity markets. Will they? I would bet not and if so will go "private" eventually too, leaving only CSIQ as the only non-ADR player (well there's FSLR, but its a different story).

Yes removing Trina did not do much more than making it harder for me to find good candidates when trying to diversify holdings in the sector. Did removal of Trina's market cap from US exchanges increase the market cap of its peers at all?

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1 minute ago, sunnypease said:

Do you see that continuing?  I've heard a couple times on CCs that the price of solar can come down because the price of poly should come down.  Seems like the poly is the obvious fat that module makers have eyes on trimming.

It was helped by high poly price in Q1, but they said there is not that much supply coming online in the near future and they just finished ramping their new capacity in Q1 so operationally there should be some more to tap on cost reductions and volume increases. I would say that it's reasonable to expect it to be a dollar and not dime order of quarterly EPS company from now on.

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It goes well outside JA's topic, but what was that (now almost completely deflated) 30+% pop in JKS over one week in late May on excellent volume (of course 20+% of the move was gone in a single day on super volume)? There were opinions of equity raising which never materialized.

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I think that we cannot tell if TSL being gone did nothing. I think in downturn they are doing better I think it would be different if business was great. That would be the measure. It could be interesting to run a chart and benchmark it.

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4 minutes ago, explo said:

It was helped by high poly price in Q1, but they said there is not that much supply coming online in the near future and they just finished ramping their new capacity in Q1 so operationally there should be some more to tap on cost reductions and volume increases. I would say that it's reasonable to expect it to be a dollar and not dime order of quarterly EPS company from now on.

Market does not care. Can one buy a few (even one) thousand shares at a time without immediately effecting the price and then even worse, selling all without price dropping? Not easily.

Edited by pg6solar

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13 minutes ago, odyd said:

I think that we cannot tell if TSL being gone did nothing. I think in downturn they are doing better I think it would be different if business was great. That would be the measure. It could be interesting to run a chart and benchmark it.

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Yes it would be interesting to know if there is such effect. Maybe the effect started already long before delisting as normal sector investors likely moved to other sector alternatives at opportunity. Hedge funds poured into TSL while it traded ar discount to offer and they will not get back into the sector once they've collected that arbitrage profit.

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20 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

It goes well outside JA's topic, but what was that (now almost completely deflated) 30+% pop in JKS over one week in late May on excellent volume (of course 20+% of the move was gone in a single day on super volume)? There were opinions of equity raising which never materialized.

I'm not but I was lucky to reduce allocation to it by 25% in the 22's. Which I had sold 50% more of it.

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23 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

Market does not care. Can one buy a few (even one) thousand shares at a time without immediately effecting the price and then even worse, selling all without price dropping? Not easily.

It's strange since its average volume is more than  half of JASO's. The difference should not be that huge.

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If there's an effect of Trina's leaving, its in my opinion a negative one toward CN solars. Look at CSIQ's pathetic volume on ER date - previous two ERs volume (after definitive Trina offer) was "only" over 5M ea (last August at was 19M). Today its on path to be under 3M. No interest from the market.

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I find it no interest to sell. This means someone is looking beyond quarter results.

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11 minutes ago, explo said:

It's strange since its average volume is more than  half of JASO's. The difference should not be that huge.

Common Explo, my reply was regarding DQ since this was the conversation, not JKS.

I was continuing DQ conversation when JKS got mixed in between my posts.

Edited by pg6solar

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7 minutes ago, odyd said:

I find it no interest to sell. This means someone is looking beyond quarter results.

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Right that's why one does in/out on .20 moves. What is .20, or .50 or even a $1 long term? 

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Right that's why one does in/out on .20 moves. What is .20, or .50 or even a $1 long term? 

Is this a shot at me? LOL.
What it does it lowers the average of ownership and makes money.

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No shots.

My brief answer was to the market not selling CSIQ despite seemingly leading to a carnage. I am not saying this will not happen, but it appears the market was much more displeased with JKS. I take this as a sign of further horizon.

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I think if anything, JKS' shares were significantly raised while CSIQ's stayed dormant. So while it appeared JKS dropped, the delta is $5 currently, which is above $4 something it was in early May, before ERs were announce later on. 

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