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JA Solar (JASO)

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11 hours ago, explo said:

1b? That's a lot of cell capacity.

I would take this with a rock of salt. It is Vietnamese publication. How many times we have seen this before, Pakistan, India, for all of those companies? Unless JA issues a news, this could be a 100MW

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I have been paying less attention to JASO (and most solars) the last ~6 months. 

Can anyone remind me is there still a buyout offer (floating somewhere out there) for JASO from a JASO executive?  What was the price offered? I assume this offer is to be viewed with skepticism?

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12 minutes ago, disdaniel said:

I have been paying less attention to JASO (and most solars) the last ~6 months. 

Can anyone remind me is there still a buyout offer (floating somewhere out there) for JASO from a JASO executive?  What was the price offered? I assume this offer is to be viewed with skepticism?

The offer has a 96% premium over current market price so I think the market don't give much for that soon two years old non-binding offer.

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Yet the short interest, just like with TSL, is non-existent. Either they wait for TSL to go out officially (and I play it such as once it happens, should be this month, JA's PPS will/should move up) hence short interest is low, or if they are sure JA is not following TSL and once JA reports on 16th with terrible guidance, shorts will pile on and PPS will plummet fast (PPS dropped 4% from 2% down to 6% down within seconds earlier today, so they can do as the please). I hope TSL departs before 16th so JA has a chance to move up.  

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Any thoughts on upcoming earnings? Seems they restored sales volume but had a slight decrease in revenue indicated. 1 site has -0.07 eps.

Worried that shorts will pile on though frankly, they will probably dog pile on anyway even if the results were good.

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It looks like two out of three Chinese do not have a problem with the glut prices. Two out two American companies do. JA did very well. I have not seen the balance sheet yet, but EPS was high for one-quarter with GM over 12%.

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answer

Included in operating expenses in the fourth quarter of 2016 were a one-time reversal of RMB 348.3 million ($50.2 million) of previously recorded expenses due to the resolution of the Company’s dispute with Hemlock Semiconductor Pte. Ltd (“Hemlock”), and a one-time charge of RMB 99.6 million ($14.3 million) resulted from the termination of business relationship with one of the Company’s business partners.

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23 minutes ago, odyd said:

Included in operating expenses in the fourth quarter of 2016 were a one-time reversal of RMB 348.3 million ($50.2 million) ....  and a one-time charge of RMB 99.6 million ($14.3 million)

Hi Robert.  So is that bonus added into income & is that is why ASPs look good?

B/C looks like ASPs were about 0.41c for the quarter.  

 

So when pvinsights.com writes Q4 price is 0.37c, it means end of quarter, with a decline of 8%, gives starting quarter value of 0.4.  Avg would be 0.385, so JASO can get 2-3 cents more per W than pvinsights.com price.

Now how to determine cost per watt?

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Love JA's transparency: they gave a very detailed ASPs for both Q1 and Q2 by country like no one else before; CFO was openly questioning President; finally both (CFO and President) have no clue what's holding up Chairman/CEO from completing a buyout (both hinted that current low Market Cap is a non-issue if Chairman really wanted to). 

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Did they mention cost per watt to product?  And the ASP projections?  Do they see the same 10-15% ASP 2H drop that JKS spoke of?

I was driving & could not listen.

 

Thank you

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Sounds like blended cost is .333 .  Says it is hard to predict how much it will come down.  Says there is lots of room to come down b/c poly cost is just .08 or .09

Not sure about the 2H drop, but they said shipments will be 60% 1H, 40% 2H

I agree with you.  The CEO or maybe it's the CFO who speaks great English and is kind of funny too.  Very honest.

Maybe time to go long here?  Sounds like ASPs OK,  FIT cuts evenly spaced.  And CN manufactures prove they can lower costs quickly.

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Yeah.. they are so transparent.  When you compare that with SPWR & FSLR it's like night & day.

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JA sold modules at $0.41 and have cost at $0.33? That is 19%, with 96% of sales being a module, what am I missing in this math? Are they talking about China production only without tariff or resourcing? He did say blend, so I am confused.

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Yes that is strange because they reported GM of 12.9%    They are so modest!  Hmm...

I read Credit Suisse's note.  Their main concern is rising production levels.  They said JASO guided a 1.5GW boost in output... via mono PERC.

Credit Suisse sees 100GW of cell capacity vs 63/72 GW demand in 2017/2018.  I'm not sure if that 63 for 2017 includes the boost to 2017 China demand that JKS guided.

The see accelerated price delcines & margin pressure in 2H & maybe 2018 absent a stronger demand rebound.

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4 hours ago, sunnypease said:

The see accelerated price delcines & margin pressure in 2H & maybe 2018 absent a stronger demand rebound.

In other words, no change from current trends?  Manufacturers to continue to barely break even, needing huge volume because of razor-thin margins?

Great... (sarcasm)

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Anyone notice that Jinko was restrictive on cell expansion while JA restrictive on wafer and module expansion. There seem to be some rationality in expanding complementary segments among the big capacity players. 

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21 hours ago, odyd said:

do you think they seem to support each other?

Jinko would need to buy/toll 5 GW cells and JA buy 4 GW wafer so I could see some partnership, but more likely they are balancing total supply situation and their own strength/focus. Maybe they just sync enough to avoid that everyone is expanding cell only for example.

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Explo, what is your take on the JA mono PERC cell capacity? Do you see this to be around 2.3GW out of the 7GW planned or is this more?

I would be interested to see the walk from wafer perspective, like 3GW of mono added by JKS to supply for 2.5GW of mono PERC cells they will have.

Do you think that JA's wafer capacity is all mono?

We have not had that discussion for some time; I would like to learn from you what you think.

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I haven't really gotten into details lately. For a long time they hade 500 MW mono and 500 MW multi and did not expand it. They had great access to mono ingot/wafer supply from their "parent" company and other partners. I think they've focused more on mono in their recent ingot capacity expansion, but I'm not sure. Typically they are 50/50 mono/multi in their cell production but lines are flexible to flip between mono and multi if they want to bias it. JA is known to have bet more on mono or rather keep it open than say Trina which made a big multi bet and other CN4s (I think Jinko after JA was the most mono or open one), but I haven't followed recent developments that well. Those that betted to hard on multi might be slower to adapt to bigger market changes.

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Thanks, I actually do not think that overall all of them have so much different approach. The mix is the same the cell asset and wafer asset ownership based on technology is different. The cost relationship due to it may improve ASP, but also cause cost increase. I think worth tracking for recovery purpose.

 

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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I am hopeful that JASO is seen for its results, I am trying to make point of it in my article.

 

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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I agree with odyd. It has done too good job on growth, profitability and building solid BS past years to have a market cap below 300 million on several billions in sales and one billion in book value. I don't think market expects a buyout. It is just surprised that it now can be steadfast in a weak industry cycle and thus extend a long row of recent performance.

 

Edited by explo

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36 minutes ago, odyd said:

In a broken English JA is investing big time in Vietnam.

Meeting Vietnamese PM, does make a lot of sense, not sure about $1B to be the number, but

https://www.vietnamartnews.com/2017/04/pm-receives-lao-minister-chinese-group-chairman/

Oh, this is what is all about, the construction was halted, so Chairman talked to PM

http://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/vietnam-halts-work-on-massive-chinese-solar-panel-plant-3554067.html

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