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JA Solar (JASO)

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You are welcome.  I really enjoy your posts.  We should be getting some news "very" soon from JASO..  

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Well "trading" on no volume does not mean anything. As far as parity, one is too "late" to that party (if, IF, it even takes place). (I assume you hold enough of CSIQ too, both CSIQ and TSL are up about the same from 24th lows).

Unfortunately I made the switch just days before the very lows and then JASO performed better. From lows it likely haven't outperformed since it didn't go as deep (like JKS and CSIQ heading into low teens).

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Yomama I know JA Solar is trading as good news is to happen soon. What do you think we'll hear, very soon you mean in like next week?

You are welcome.  I really enjoy your posts.  We should be getting some news "very" soon from JASO..  

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I don't know anything more than anyone else.  Its been over two months for the evaluation board to make a recommendation to the JASO board.  That is plenty of time.  You have some pretty decent size options bet that expire on 9/18 then it drys up after than until January.  Recent trading also indicates something may be happening soon.  So my guess based on all that would be sometime between now and 9/18.  GLTA

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Unfortunately I made the switch just days before the very lows and then JASO performed better. From lows it likely haven't outperformed since it didn't go as deep (like JKS and CSIQ heading into low teens).

Explo, the way I look at it, it is hard to time top or bottom.  Around May this year, when CSIQ was around $40 peak, JASO was around $10.5.  That was almost 4 times.  Now, CSIQ is a bit more than 2 times.  If you switch it now, or when CSIQ was bottom below $15, you made it good.

A few times in the past, you switched JASO to CSIQ and JKS at around 2 to 1 ratio, you made out well.  It is hard to tell if JASO will just rocket up and surpass TSL, but I just play percentage.  It is no telling that you might be able to switch back to JASO at 3 to 1 or even 4 to 1 later.

Also a few times I heard July lamented that she should have switched.  Now, the market gave her a chance, I guess she will just pass up the opportunity.

Good luck to all (JASO and CN3 holders alike).

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Explo, the way I look at it, it is hard to time top or bottom.  Around May this year, when CSIQ was around $40 peak, JASO was around $10.5.  That was almost 4 times.  Now, CSIQ is a bit more than 2 times.  If you switch it now, or when CSIQ was bottom below $15, you made it good.

A few times in the past, you switched JASO to CSIQ and JKS at around 2 to 1 ratio, you made out well.  It is hard to tell if JASO will just rocket up and surpass TSL, but I just play percentage.  It is no telling that you might be able to switch back to JASO at 3 to 1 or even 4 to 1 later.

Also a few times I heard July lamented that she should have switched.  Now, the market gave her a chance, I guess she will just pass up the opportunity.

Good luck to all (JASO and CN3 holders alike).

Yes I've done these flips successfully a couple of times before because I did not trust that full valuation correction JASO vs peers would happen yet. This time it feels a bit different though, since JASO is heading for such monster H2, while the others are fading a bit (except for Trina I think).

 

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I don't know anything more than anyone else.  Its been over two months for the evaluation board to make a recommendation to the JASO board.  That is plenty of time.  You have some pretty decent size options bet that expire on 9/18 then it drys up after than until January.  Recent trading also indicates something may be happening soon.  So my guess based on all that would be sometime between now and 9/18.  GLTA

What do you feel will happen to the stock price if the special committee recommends that the price is too low and Baofang Jin drops his bid. Do you think it will allow the price to move higher or will it act like a shock to the system and drop like a rock?

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I don't see him walking away at this point.  If he did then the price most likely go up due to last quarters beat and projected strong 2H 2015.  I am guessing the committee will come up with a higher fair price of at least $11.  All these primary solar stocks are so undervalued by the market right now.  This committee has a fiduciary responsibility to establish value on factors other that what the market is currently pricing it at.  Most likely Jin has had the company in the market buying stock which will allow him to justify paying a higher price.   

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I don't see him walking away at this point.  If he did then the price most likely go up due to last quarters beat and projected strong 2H 2015.  I am guessing the committee will come up with a higher fair price of at least $11.  All these primary solar stocks are so undervalued by the market right now.  This committee has a fiduciary responsibility to establish value on factors other that what the market is currently pricing it at.  Most likely Jin has had the company in the market buying stock which will allow him to justify paying a higher price.   

Whatever the committee's decision, I just wish that they announce it soon. Buyout with higher price is possible but not probable given the sleazeball CEO that we came to know from last offer. And yes, I don't think the so called "independent" board is truly "independent". Nonetheless, we can still take whatever the premium and put it into other solar names if they green light buyout soon. The worst outcome for JASO holders is that the independent board keeps dragging on the decision and approve the buyout with $9.6 after share price of CN3 recovers significantly from this level while JASO is capped by $9.6.  If the CEO walks away, I will keep my JASO because I still think it's the best value stock amongst CN4.

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Does I'll take a bid here" mean that you woud sell JASO at this price? Kind of confused by your statment.

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Does I'll take a bid here" mean that you woud sell JASO at this price? Kind of confused by your statment.

The current bid for all outstanding shares, that the committee appointed by the board is evaluating in order for board to give its recommendation to shareholders on whether the bid is acceptable or not, is at $9.69. For this I I could for example now buy Trina at lower price and CSIQ at less than half, which seems like a good trade based historic trading of the names.

I personally still have higher price target for JASO than TSL and more than half of CSIQ and JKS, so in my analysis JASO would still be the best buy if it jumped to $9.69 (market cap there is still way below the others and net debt is way below others and working capital is way above others), but I can't ignore trading reality either and to be honest JASO is doing crazy revenue growth by taking panel sales market share through tech leadership and expanding net margins by being most opex efficient, but they don't grow electricity generation assets nearly as fast as the other 3.

It's no secret that I like names that can profit on panel sales and put those profit into (levered) electricity generation asset growth. Trina is now proven leader to me in terms of reducing panel cost, market share, generating asset growth while being only second to JASO of CN4 on maintaining as BS that can support dilution free growth.

CSIQ, FSLR and JKS (all like Trina more expensive than JASO) have some interesting qualities as well. DQ offer biggest discount to its 52 week high.

 

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My main point being that it as an example is more interesting to take $9.69 for JASO  when JASO is in high 7's and CSIQ in high teens than when JASO is in mid 9's and CSIQ in mid 30's.

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JA recruits Robert Petrina from Yingli: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ja-solar-appoints-robert-petrina-110000470.html

A story about who is rising and who is falling in PV land. It could also tell story about JA's plans for the US market, which so far has been anemic. Yingli used to be big in US. Some of that cake Robert might bring to JA.

"We look forward to his valuable perspective and leadership as we continue to grow our presence and market share across North America."

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JA Solar completes $47m Malaysian fab

The Chinese solar company has confirmed that production at the facility in Bayan Lepas will begin in the next couple of weeks. Fab is JA Solar's first outside of China.

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In the CSIQ CC this morning cell price increases were more of an issue for costs than wafer prices. JASO would be a winner if that proves to be the case.  The buyout now seems unlikely since so much time has elapsed without a follow-up update.  IMO this would be a good thing for investors.  JASO is the most conservative play in this volatile space!!

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Hi guys,

I just switched my complete holdings from TSL to JASO. I have a gut feeling that these guys are going to post the first stellar results from the chinese producers. Seeing how crazy low they are valued it might bring some surprises to the table with regard to stock price development Maybe there are also some surprising developments regarding the share buy back program and take over bid. I think the pressure for the CEO is on and you cannot go wrong on the current level.

Lucky

 

 

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6 hours ago, luckygoose said:

Hi guys,

I just switched my complete holdings from TSL to JASO. I have a gut feeling that these guys are going to post the first stellar results from the chinese producers. Seeing how crazy low they are valued it might bring some surprises to the table with regard to stock price development Maybe there are also some surprising developments regarding the share buy back program and take over bid. I think the pressure for the CEO is on and you cannot go wrong on the current level.

Lucky

 

 

Yes. JASO will have a sweet 2H. What a bargain.

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Jaso it's so depressed.. for sure it's going to have earnings over $100 greater than it's market value.

I'm going through tomorrow's ER with 50% JASO, 50% JKS.

Good luck to all

 

 

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Not a lot of volume today but it seems like the price movement may be indicating that real good earnings are coming tomorrow. Of course we usually get slaughtered if that is the case. Good luck all JASO holders.

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Not a lot of volume today but it seems like the price movement may be indicating that real good earnings are coming tomorrow. Of course we usually get slaughtered if that is the case. Good luck all JASO holders.

Ha . True. They crush ER in the past and SP gets crushed. Just bcuz "they" can.

Good luck to all us JASO holders tmrow. Newly minted or long-suffering alike!

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WOW....Knocked that one out of the park! The left fielder didn't even move....

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Jaso beats, Jks rises... I think this whole game is not for investors, but for amusement (and profit) of a few..

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Very good job for JASO and reflection of very strong market in China, rising prices for modules and great growth seen by manufacturing segment. Increase to 5GW both cells and modules by half of the year shows demand is good and margins are back as well.

I am impressed in particular with level of net income and of course the revenue. 

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7:06 am JA Solar misses by $0.10, beats on revs (JASO) :

  • Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.14 per share, $0.10 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.24; revenues rose 22.1% year/year to $600.96 mln vs the $512.37 mln Capital IQ Consensus. 

from briefing.com - how do thes count this?!?

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