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JA Solar (JASO)

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Yes but JASO had no US sales so they were not exposed to that risk. Gains in China might be offset by losses in U.S. for CN3.

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First panels 56 MW installed at Morre Solar Farm in Australia

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/first_panels_installed_at_56mw_moree_solar_farm_in_australia

President and chief operating officer of JA Solar, Xie Jian, said: “We firmly believe that the launch of MSF will serve as a foundation for potential opportunities to co-operate on large-scale solar projects in Australia in the future.”

 

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Not sure if this was posted, but saw this making the rounds ...

Roth Capital affirmed JA Solar (Nasdaq: JASO) with a Neutral rating and trimmed its price target from $9 to $8 following the company's Q2 results and outlook issued Tuesday night.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Roth+Capital+Trims+PT+on+JA+Solar+(JASO)+to+$8+Following+Weak+Q3+Guide/10805966.html

 

 

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Roth put a $45 price on JKS. Looks like JASO pissed on FiT payment improvement, dropped from solar plant build and decided to depreciate ASP against all the signs.

I can see Shen being upset as I was about FiT description from their perspective. Perhaps having 800MW company has a bit more to say on this than them and I hope experience is different , but they talked like they were speaking for industry. As soon as I heard I knew they will sink all Chinese stocks.

I know Explo is happy they bought shares in the period Chairman offered to buy the company. I think right there not shareholder friendly comes to mind as they just helped lower the spent by around $12M US for him. They lied about their South Africa plant, there is not such a thing anywhere. They are dropping from building 400MW in 2015 to 150MW, again what are they saving themselves for? Maybe buy more shares of the market? Finally the ticket to the US, Malaysia plant, a condition hard to get for TSL, mediocre detail offered I would not be surprised if this turned to no go.

Bummer on Indian joint venture as well. JASO is as little interesting as a company can get. This why I think they are going to be bought out. It is a strategy of looking boring and ugly so you can be bought quick and cheap. I would not be surprised that JASO buys double of own shares in Q3. Not the glorious way to go, and not an uplift of the spirit for the rest.

 

Edited by odyd
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Not sure if this was posted, but saw this making the rounds ...

Roth Capital affirmed JA Solar (Nasdaq: JASO) with a Neutral rating and trimmed its price target from $9 to $8 following the company's Q2 results and outlook issued Tuesday night.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Roth+Capital+Trims+PT+on+JA+Solar+(JASO)+to+$8+Following+Weak+Q3+Guide/10805966.html

Roth Capital is a snake I would think that most have figured this out by now. Roth had an $18 Price target on JA in the past and Gordo a $19. PT or vise versa but every time they announced good earnings they would sell the stock directly afterwards. At one one  time I counted 6 or 7 of these anal-lists that had strong buys within a week before earnings . Before those earnings came out PT of $13 & 19 a share from 6 or 7 analysts came out and the next day JA reported better than expected earnings and the stock sold off but only after it rose around 12%.  My calculated thought to the reaction was WS knew JA Would be going Private. 

Do not let Roth Capital pick your pocket from all I've seen that's the only thing they have been good at.

listen to the CC and you'lll barely here Roth asking questions He got all choked and I imagine it was from JA's strong results and wondering what kind of twists he can pull next. I mean when I say Roth is a snake.

Edited by Julyw

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JA Solar Released New Double-glass Modules: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ja-solar-released-double-glass-230000262.html

30 year warranty (25 is standard), 0.5% annual degradation (0.7% is standard), 1500V max system voltage (1000V is standard).

All three points add to IRR calculations. Trina has offered this for quite some time. 

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Surprised explo. Why from JASO to TSL ? Is it only diversification ? Because in shear numbers and value, JASO trumps all.

Do you think, the offer will be rejected. My view  is the price will be revised upwards.

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Yes like most stocks TSL looks extremely expensive when compared to JASO. I need to diversify some I can't hold JASO only due to risk in others for being much more expensive. This might have been bad timing, but the amount of JASO sold now is very little compared to the big bulk sold in the 10's when I reduced stock holdings in general.

 

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Looks like the news coming thick and fast with JASO. Strange behaviour if you want to take the company private. Anyone think the deals off? 

"Break a deal,  Face the wheel"   ................   lol      sorry............   (from Mad Max and Thunderdome movie)

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LOL. Now that I've given up on my case others pick it up.

3 Reasons Value Stock Investors Will Love JA Solar Holdings (JASO): http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reasons-value-stock-investors-123612670.html

 

 

IMO on forward PE/EPS bases, JKS is still cheaper: the multiple of forward EPS (over 2.5) is greater than multiple of current PPS (under 2.5).

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IMO on forward PE/EPS bases, JKS is still cheaper: the multiple of forward EPS (over 2.5) is greater than multiple of current PPS (under 2.5).

A little cheaper at the cost of much more risk. Jinko is balancing their BS more on a knife's edge than JASO is. JASO thus have room to accelerate growth at opportunity. This is what I like to buy into in combination with expanding margins (some revenue streams worth growing).

 

 

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Yes, the risk I see is JASO taken out at only about 20% premium to current PPS, while JKS' upside conservatively at least 50%  from here.

You know JKS has an enterprise value of 2b and JASO one of 0.8b? Both on 225m EBITDA production. It's more than a 100% valuation multiple difference. To me it's a risk to pay more than double for something at face value (225m EBITDA) looks similar, because the market might decide to close the valuation gap. I want to play such gaps on the right side. Now there more to it, otherwise I would not opportunistically have moved from JASO/FSLR to CN3 here.

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You know JKS has an enterprise value of 2b and JASO one of 0.8b? Both on 225m EBITDA production. It's more than a 100% valuation multiple difference. To me it's a risk to pay more than double for something at face value (225m EBITDA) looks similar, because the market might decide to close the valuation gap. I want to play such gaps on the right side. Now there more to it, otherwise I would not opportunistically have moved from JASO/FSLR to CN3 here.

Yes I understand moving from safer names (JASO and FSLR) with less potential appreciation from current PPS to riskier names (CSIQ, JKS and TSL with JKS being the riskiest) with much higher probability of appreciation 

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Yes I understand moving from safer names with less potential appreciation from current PPS to riskier names (some more than others) with much higher probability of appreciation 

The problem is if JA Solar Offer is accepted forget about higher appreciation.

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I really respect EXPLO comments and interest in JASO.  The way I am playing it is with Jan. 2016 call with a $5 strike.    I have been adding to that position when JASO goes to lower levels.  If you were to buy those options today you still make 20% on your money.  The downside is what?  If they do not accept the offer then does the stock go down or up?  If you have to buy it at $5 then just wait it out.  Everyone is making bets on this board.  But in my books EXPLO is on target with this one.   JASO is a really good company that is so under appreciated. Their CEO is smart.  IMO the buyout offer will be increased to around $11 then go through.  A great deal from current levels for all parties concerned.  Of course greater long term appreciation is with JKS, CSIQ & TSL but for some more certain cash in the near future then my bet is with JASO options placed deep in the money.

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Yes I understand moving from safer names (JASO and FSLR) with less potential appreciation from current PPS to riskier names (CSIQ, JKS and TSL with JKS being the riskiest) with much higher probability of appreciation 

Are you still sure that parity between TSL and JASO will never come back? Holding lots of TSL and no JASO now I don't really like the trend towards that lately.

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Are you still sure that parity between TSL and JASO will never come back? Holding lots of TSL and no JASO now I don't really like the trend towards that lately.

Well "trading" on no volume does not mean anything. As far as parity, one is too "late" to that party (if, IF, it even takes place). (I assume you hold enough of CSIQ too, both CSIQ and TSL are up about the same from 24th lows).

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